Fiddler's Edge

The Moment that Falls Between

2012-01-16T08:45:00.000-08:00

Fiddler's Edge has had quite a run.

This is the one hundred fiftieth post for this site and, while that is hardly a match for my more productive colleagues, for me it is a significant mile marker. This last year has seen a lot of change in New Eden, and by the look of things there's plenty more to come.

Nullsec has been shaken up, though so far this is only the existing nullsec club members trading deck chairs in first class while the rest of us watch from steerage. A large supercapital fleet is still the cost of entry for nullsec and only those holding the vast wealth nullsec bestows can afford them. The only way a young and hungry alliance can establish themselves in nullsec is to attach themselves as vassals to one of the existing powers. Unfortunately most of those slots are filled by formerly storied nullsec alliances that are now little more than retainers for the two or three large powers that hold sway in sovereign space these days.

With any luck, the nullsec center will not hold and in the chaos that follows the barbarians will loot the vast hoards of ISK and warehouses of supercaps. I hope to see a bit more of a free-for-all in nullsec by the latter half of 2012.

Change is coming to lowsec as well. Pirates and griefers are forever, but I think as lowsec becomes more valuable we'll see a consolidation of power in certain pockets of that space. Some of those pockets will be carebears carving out a places to build industrial empires. Others will be groups of pirates banding together to form criminal cartels that provide protection in exchange for a percentage off the top. Not that this portends the death of small gang PvP by any means. Rixx Javix and his naughty ilk will still be there, happily podding each other and the unlucky stranger who wanders across their path. But I expect lowsec will become a much more diverse, textured slice of Eve-play.

However, those will all be tales for another to tell.

This seems a fitting time to gather up the used tea cups and the left-over cucumber sandwiches, sweep the crumbs from the table and put away the good silver. Even high tea with Mord has to end sometime. I said my farewells a year ago and won't repeat them now. Suffice it to say that those of you who've kept coming back to wade through the walls of text here at The Edge have been great company these last two years. Thanks to you all and I'll see you in game.

Fly true.

Pride Goeth

2012-01-15T17:30:00.000-08:00

A good many residents of New Eden may be impressed with Mittens, but none so much as Mittens himself.

Mittani has declared Mission Accomplished in Branch, and claimed the victory, the fastest region turn over (so he tells us) in the history of New Eden, for all Goon-kind. Of course that other alliances than the Goons did about 80% of the fighting and structure bashing is no never mind to Mittens. If he's to be believed, he is the victory's father, mother and second cousin twice removed. He gives some credit to a nameless cadre of military and economic advisers, but he leaves no doubt that he's placing the victor's laurels on his own head.

Gearing up for the next CSM election, he goes on to award himself credit for victory over CCP in the Incarna wars, while heaping derision on Mynxee and the membership of CSM5 who turned the CSM from passive bystanders to an honest-to-goodness Eve stakeholders and player advocacy group. And apparently all those Eve players who expressed anger and dissatisfaction with CCP in individual, unsung acts were mere marionettes acting out Mittani's will in a grand puppet circus.

A wiser man would not stand on the shoulders of others and brag about how tall he is.

State of Decay

2012-01-12T14:34:00.000-08:00

Because that's how every single part of New Eden that was lost in 2011 was lost....All of it was due to internal rot. - Ripard Teg: "Didn't Want that Space Anyway"

'Rot' is the most common diagnosis given to explain the collapse of an Eve alliance or coalition. It is also the most useless. It is a term so generic that it can have entirely different meanings to the speaker and listener depending upon what's in their minds at the time. Further, in one sense or another it is so broadly applicable to almost any failscade that has ever occurred in New Eden that in most cases it is not a very meaningful indicator of root cause.

But it has the advantage of being safe.

Anyone from the bitterest vet to the most callow pubbie can look at the wreckage of a nullsec alliance, nod their head knowingly, say "Well, this was obviously a bad case of rot." and be reasonably confident their thesis will not be disproved. You see, if one defines rot very loosely as, for example, a loss of organizational integrity, the word describes the very phenomenon for which it was intended to provide a causal explanation. It becomes tautology; The loss of organizational integrity invariably accompanies organizational collapse because organizational collapse is, in effect, the loss of organizational integrity.

When Atlas Alliance failscaded in the Summer of 2010, the cause was largely attributed to internal rot. Which is to say that Atlas Alliance failscaded and nobody could be bothered to take a close look at the root causes. Looking at their collapse in hindsight, it's evident that a number of factors were in play. Atlas was structured with responsibility for major decision, particularly military decisions, in the hands of one person and the rest of the leadership tasked with caretaker/maintenance roles. This created a single point of failure in their leadership structure. Secondly, the advent of the Dominion sovereignty mechanics along with the supercarrier buff had profoundly altered the strategic and tactical nature of nullsec sov warfare. The Atlas military leadership was slow to recognize adapt to this new military reality. Finally, in the absence of attention from the leadership, key industrial interests within the alliance had become distanced from the core interests of Atlas.

Soon after the collapse of Atlas, Against All Authorities came under attack by White Noise, Pandemic Legion, The Initiative[DOT] and IT Alliance. Once again, the defenders appeared to be quickly overwhelmed by the invaders and, with -A- retreating from their space and a failscade appearing imminent, it looked very much like a repeat of the Atlas collapse. With -A-'s demise assumed, the blogosphere and podcast universe wrote and broadcast the alliance's obituaries with 'rot' as the cause of death.

Of course we all know in hindsight that -A-'s leadership had decided to to retreat the bulk of their PvP strength into NPC nullsec and nearby Stain Empire space rather than allow those forces to be ground down in an unlikely defense of Catch, Teneferis, et al. -A- gambled that their organization was hardy enough to hold the troops together in exile until the enemy had dispersed and could be attacked and destroyed piecemeal. It was a daring move that flew in the face of nullsec strategic orthodoxy of the time, and its success can be attributed in no small part to the strength of the same -A- organization the blogosphere had declared shot through with rot.

Now, in taking back their lost territory, -A- faced primarily The Initiative[DOT] and their two vassal alliances, Dead Terrorists(DT) and CO2, along with an attempted "all in" intervention by IT Alliance. The fates of those four alliances are instructive when discussing rot as the exclusive cause of territorial changeover and alliance failscade.

After the invasion, DT and CO2 were settled into former -A- space between Initiative's new home in Catch and the Southern Russian alliances in order to serve as a buffer between the Initiative and the potential hostiles on the southern flank. DT and CO2 alliances were relatively new to nullsec, CO2 having prior experience in Providence and DT fresh out of lowsec. The Initiative appears to assumed that -A- was done for, Stain Empire and Red Overlord were only a marginal threat, and that CO2 and DT were capable of dealing with any trouble coming from that direction.

When the -A- counteroffensive, supported by Stain and Red Overlord, did occur, it became quickly evident that the Initiative had completely misjudged the strategic situation. As I described in Noblesse Oblige, Initiative compounded that error by a complete mishandling of events at almost every level. DT, new to nullsec warfare and fighting against the seasoned Southern Russians, were quickly overwhelmed and failscaded. CO2 held on longer but was forced to evacuate Impass soon after when their defense of that region collapsed. While CO2 managed to avoid a complete failscade, they were no longer effective as a combat unit by the time the order to bug out was given, and their organization was crippled by internal turmoil in the immediate aftermath of their loss.

Rot as its conventionally understood assumes decay of a mature organization over time owing to a neglect of organizational qualities that made it successful in the first place, or by an accrual of factors that serve to break down or undermine the qualities needed to maintain a robust organization. Both CO2 and DT were relatively young alliances, and neither had been sitting complacently in their new territories for very long before -A- and Stain struck back. They lost territory to the counterattack and their organizations lost functional integrity, but neither suffered from 'rot' as it's conventionally understood.

The Initiative, while it made strategic and managerial blunders, did not do so because of deterioration in their organization due to rot. Relative to their opponents they were a young alliance and had, only months before, been a key player in the successful invasion of -A- space. The leadership of a young and healthy organization made mistakes and bad decisions. However, that doesn't mean the organization has succumbed to rot, but speaks pre-existing organizational weaknesses having to do with factors such as inexperience and nothing to do with the decay of a formerly robust organization over time.

Which brings us to IT Alliance.

As most of you know, IT Alliance was cobbled together from the wreckage of Band of Brothers (BoB) after the latter was disbanded from within by a turncoat director. Though regarded as effectively the same organization as BoB, IT Alliance's structure and personnel included fundamental changes from that of its predecessor. Over time internal reaction and response to those changes downgraded the overall effectiveness and coherence of the alliance. By the time of their "all in" intervention in support of The Initiative, nominal loyalty to SirMolle was the only thing holding IT Alliance together; although his effective control of that organization had diminished over time. A number of factions with incompatible agendas had developed within the alliance; their leadership largely at odds with each other and more interested in their rivals' failure than in IT Alliance's success.

Meant to force the alliance to pull together, IT Alliance's "all-in" intervention in December of 2010 on behalf of The Initiative served to exacerbate schisms within the organization and revealed the dysfunction beneath IT Alliance's facade of strength and unity. Within a week, Test Alliance's invasion of Fountain supported by Goonswarm forced IT Alliance to abandon The Initiative to its fate. IT Alliance's loss at PQNY-Y in the Fountain campaign showed how undermined SirMolle's alliance had become. The subsequent debacle at Z3OS-A was, for all intents and purposes, IT Alliance's death stroke. Though the enemy had not taken Delve and the alliance formerly known as BoB lingered on paper for a time, IT Alliance had come to its end.

In the case of IT Alliance one can reasonably call out rot as the reason the alliance lost its nullsec territory and dissolved. However, rot is still a symptom. If one wanted to understand or communicate meaningful information as to why IT Alliance folded, 'rot' as a stand-alone diagnosis doesn't deliver much in the way of useful information.

When confronted with events for which we don't know the precise cause, humans tend to assign causes in very broad and sometimes misleading terms. Bygone diagnoses like "brain fever", "vapors" and "humour" may have been more or less meaningless, but they made the people of that time feel a little less helpless in the face of illness or death. However, at the end of the day they meant little more than "I don't know" when it came to determining a cause.

"Rot" has become a convenient shorthand used when we wish to forgo deeper analysis, or lack the inputs or insight needed to do deeper analysis. It has become a one-size-fits-all diagnosis that is, more often than not, ignorance or indolence masquerading as insight. Next time someone tries to palm it off as obvious unvarnished truth, politely ask them to define their terms and defend their argument.

The Guns of January

2012-01-07T05:40:00.000-08:00

As we move into the new year and the player community get their collective hands around the impact of the Crucible changes, the ice-flows of sov-warfare that have locked nullsec in place for so long have finally begun to break up.

Despite the delay of the promised Time Dilation functionality, Goonswarm, Test Alliance and a flock of vassals and allies have begun the first large scale invasion of the post-Crucible era. As most of you are aware, White Noise is the target of the invasion, owing to a window of opportunity opened by a schism in that alliance's leadership. An alleged threat against Goonswarm by a leader of one of the factions within White Noise served as a pretext for the invasion.

Of course why Mittens felt he needed an obviously transparent pretext in order to initiate an invasion he'd likely planned since midsummer is a bit of a mystery. Maybe he breaks out in hives if he goes more than ten minutes without channeling the Medicis or Borgias. Anyway.

Although supported by Raiden[dot] and Red Alliance, White Noise was caught off balance and unprepared for the invaders' initial strike at White Noise's holdings in Branch. White Noise has avoided committing their forces to a pitched battle for Branch, instead opting for a strategy of giving ground early in hopes of regrouping while the enemy spends themselves grinding structures in overrun space. Thus, the better part of Branch has fallen quickly, with only the Northwest constellation of KWCZ and a few scattered outposts nominally in White Noise hands as of this writing, and those appear to be falling without resistance.

Unfortunately for White Noise, the bulk of Clusterf##k's forces did not linger in Branch. One arm of the invading forces led by Goonswarm continued to press the Raiden and White Noise forces; following them into NPC Venal where they were attempting to regroup. Meanwhile, Test Alliance and Get Off My Lawn led a secondary force on to attack White Noise and Raiden holdings in Vale of the Silent.

This last may prove problematic for the invaders. Though largely occupied by White Noise and Raiden systems, Vale of the Silent includes real estate owned by DRF and DRF-friendly alliances who haven't come to White Noise's aid yet. Thus, unlike Branch, the attack on Vale could be construed as an attack on the greater DRF and an attempt to impose a Clusterf##k hegemony over the Technetium-rich regions formerly occupied by the old Northern Coaliton. A Solar Fleet presence has begin cropping up in Vale defense fleets, indicating that the rest of the DRF is beginning to perceive the Clusterf##k invasion as a common threat.

Despite their set-backs to date, the only corporations to bolt White Noise to date have been three that joined toward the end of December - two of whom are former Northern Coalition refugees from Morsis Mihi who have switched sides and joined the invading alliances. That White Noise's baseline corporations have held fast speaks to the resilience of the Drone Russian alliances.

Speaking of Solar Fleet, they've continued cheerfully nipping off Shadow of Death systems. As you'll recall, the set-to with fellow DRF alliance Legion of Death began in early December and was heralded as a replay of the Punic War with Solar Fleet in the role of the Romans and Legion of Death standing up as Carthage. As I wrote at the time, this supposedly epic fight got off to an uninspiring start.

If a knock-down, drag-out nullsec sov fight is great sex, the Solar Fleet and Legion spent the better part of December holding hands. Most of the actual punishment was directed at Shadow of Death, Legion's tenants, as if both Legion and Solar were loathe to let matters get out of hand over a rather minor diplomatic pissing match. By the time Christmas rolled around, Solar had claimed four outposts from Legion Proper in Outer Passage without significant resistance. The rest of the territory taken by Solar Fleet has come at the expense of Shadow of Death.

But that territory is significant, spilling over from Outer Passage into Perrigen Falls. And while Shadow and Legion of Death is occupied with Solar Fleet, Intrepid Crossing has been busily knocking over Shadow systems in Oasa. The fact that even after losing so many systems Legion's tenant alliance still has the third largest portfolio of outpost systems in nullsec speaks volumes as to how vast Legion's real estate holdings had become during the Incarna wars.

With Solar beginning to cast an eye in the direction of the Clusterf##k invasion, they may decide they've extracted their pound of flesh in from Legion of Death in terms of humiliation, declare victory and turn their attention to the goings on in Vale.Thus, Mittens may have inadvertently prevented the Solar Fleet /Legion of Death conflict from escalating into a death struggle.

Of course the wild card in these fight is always Pandemic Legion. Apparently no one had bothered to contract them until recently, and if there's one things the boys in the Legion can't abide it's being ignored. So, wherever a large fleet fight breaks out within arms reach they've been summoning their new sidekick, Northern Coalition[dot] alliance, dropping into the middle of the battle and crashing the party by attacking both sides.

Ah, those crazy kids. Every day's a day at the circus for the Legion.

Happily, this seems to have gotten the attention of an employer. Pandemic Legion and the boy wonders of NC[DOT] have started a concerted campaign against Against All Authorities in Catch and have taken the critical systems of HED-GP, that region's main access point to empire, and GE-8JV, -A-'s main trade hub. The most likely suspect when it comes to hiring the Pandemic boys to rough up -A- is Goonswarm. -A- had taken advantage of the Goon's "all in" invasion of Branch to launch an invasion of their own against Goon space. Hiring Pandemic to make an enfilading attack against Catch will kick the props out from under the -A- offensive as -A- falls back to defend their home turf.

And no, I've not forgotten lowsec.

Seems some elements of Eve University have pinned a shiny tin star on their vest and formed the Coalition of Anti-Pirates (COA). The collection of alliances that Comprise COA have been taking the fight to the pirates and griefers in Heimatar and Metropolis, apparently with some success. Around the turn of the year one of their folks posted a progress report in the Eve forums, and it makes for interesting reading. While the thread has a fair amount of smack talk and "Oh no you didn't" from the pirates, there are ample griefer tears and posts bemoaning the end of small gang PvP to be found as well. This, along with killboard comparisons, indicate that COA is making life harder for the pies and driving a number of pirate organizations into the adjacent Aeman constellation in Sing Laison.

War is busting out all over; an auspicious beginning to 2012. My, I've missed the smell of cordite.

For Texas and Miss Lily

2011-12-29T12:05:00.000-08:00

"Judge shot him. Dead. Dead, dead. Then he fined him for some other crimes. And then later we hanged him."

- The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean

There is a scene in the western "The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean" in which an albino desperado/gunslinger named Bad Bob (played by Stacy Keach) rides into town, terrorizes the townfolk, and then calls Judge Bean out for a gunfight. When the Judge doesn't show himself, Bob resorts to all manner of insult and smack talk. When direct insults don't draw the judge out, Bob begins to insult Lily Langtree, whom Roy Bean is known to idolize as the best and most beautiful woman in the world. Finally, Bad Bob shoots a poster bearing Miss Lily's image through the heart.

Thus provoked, Judge Bean, who has used this time to hide himself in a church steeple with a high powered rifle, shoots Bad Bob in the back from long distance. Kills him on the spot.

The judge's men, while not long on virtue themselves, are a bit off-put by this as shooting a man in the back, even so vile a villain as Bad Bob, violates the code of the West.

Fermel Parlee: You call that sportin'? It weren't a real standup fight.
Judge Bean: Standup? I laid down to steady my aim.
Fermel Parlee: Well, I mean he never had a chance.
Judge Bean: Not at all. Never did, never would have. I didn't ask him to come here. I don't abide giving killers a chance. He wants a chance, let him go someplace else.

Which sums up my philosophy of PvP very nicely. In fact, this is one of the few aspects of the game in which my point of view and Mitten's overlap almost entirely. War in New Eden is not about e-Honor. It's not about "good fights". It's about ruining the play experience for the other side; a deliberate peeling away of any enjoyment the enemy gets when they mess with you. It is a war of attrition on fun. A good fight, to me, is when I kill the enemy in as efficient and merciless fashion as possible with minimal danger to me and mine.

It is a pragmatic and, I will be the first to admit, soulless view of PvP.

Of course, my point of view is anathema for many small gang PvPers for whom PvP is an end in and of itself; the very reason for playing the game in the first place. Such players are very passionate about what they do and can be a bit defensive when it comes to their play style. Small gang PvPers tend toward an almost knee-jerk dislike for "fleet" PvP. They are quick to sneer at it and state that it isn't "real" PvP; that outfits like Eve University do new players a disservice by teaching them fleet tactics as opposed to the more nuanced skills needed to be an effective solo or small gang pilot.

In truth, they are the gunslingers, the samurai of Eve Online.

For these players it's all about the kill list and the good fight. They rail against the fleet doctrine because it is closely associated with the blob. Skilled though they may be, most small gangs are not a match for an ably led fifty ship fleet of more modestly skilled pilots. Winning by application of overwhelming force does nothing to burnish one's PvP reputation and those who win in that manner are not deserving of respect. Dueling with blobs of t1 battlecruisers does not generally fall under the small gang PvPer's definition of a good fight.

Carebears, on the other hand, are not constrained by such delicate considerations.

A carebear is, generally speaking, not terribly interested his or her PvP reputation. They are a pragmatic lot. If the small gang pirates and griefers don't enjoy blob fights, the bears are well advised to blob with a will. As I mentioned in Creatures of Light and Darkness, nullsec bears became very adept at hemming small fleets of interlopers into kill zones and then exterminating them. Executing the same tactics in lowsec, of course, assumes fleet PvP numbers, know-how and coordination that most highsec carebear corporations and alliances lack. Further, assets in lowsec have, by and large, either been impossible to secure, or not worth the investment an organization would need to make in order to project a sphere of influence into lowsec space.

With the advent of Player Owned Customs Offices (POCO), this has changed. POCOs offer a structure that can be claimed by an organization and generate a number of revenue streams. Of course a prerequisite for optimizing revenue from such a structure is that they be reasonably accessible to those allowed to use them, and that they be defended if attacked. Thus, carebear organizations have been provided a rationale for projecting power into lowsec.

Of course, as most faction warfare players will know, lowsec space is difficult to lock down. Not only are there no in-game mechanics to facilitate this, lowsec mechanics tend twork to impede such efforts. Thus, a lighter touch is needed; the development of a sphere of influence as opposed to outright territorial control. The goal of a sphere if influence is an area of nullsec in which hostile traffic can be minimized enough to allow a profitable degree of allied industrial activity by friends and allies. This is, at present, beyond the ability of most high sec alliances. Therefore, if they wish to extend their operations to lowsec and have the wherewithal to protect their investments, they are going to have to form coalitions.

To date, lowsec coalitions have been a very different breed of cat from their nullsec cousins. Nullsec coalitions tend to be highly public, with well known list of member alliances, defined borders, common diplomatic standings and a clearly defined administrative structure. Lowsec coalitions, on the other hand, tend to be smaller, much more secretive and more informal. Most are PvP/Industrial hybrids and have no interest in calling undue attention to themselves and tend to locate themselves off the beaten path.

However, there are indications that a new type of lowsec coalition is waiting to step out into the spotlight. It bears a much closer resemblance to a nullsec coalition and that's not surprising; a key constituent of these emerging entities are former nullsec bears. Unlike many highsec bears, nullsec bears tend to be well grounded in how to fight in fleet, how to coordinate defense of their space and how to spoil a roaming gang's evening out. Some are passable Fleet Commanders as well.

Whether and how quickly these bear coalitions catch on and whether they survive for long is an open question. There will be a trial and error period, them we'll see. While I don't expect them to stand off a concerted attack by Pandemic Legion, Legion of Death or their nullsec ilk, the bears should be able to hold their own against the usual assortment of lowsec pirates and griefers. However, the winners or losers in this fight will not be measured in ships or ISK lost. It will be measured in fun denied.

For Texas, and Miss Lily.

Mittens and Markets

2011-12-20T15:03:00.000-08:00

I spent a few weeks observing the Goonswarm interdiction of Gallente ice. Ironically dubbed Goonswarm Shrugged by Mittens, chair of the CSM and Beloved Leader of Goonswarm, the interdiction's stated objective was the ruination of the Eve economy.

Now, it would seem a bit far fetched to some, the idea that interdicting a single commodity could bring New Eden's artificial economy to its knees. However, it must be borne in mind that Mittens had an awful lot of bored Goons wanting occupation as they waited for the Winter Supercapital Nerf. Like Border Collies, if you don't keep Goons busy they'll start eating the sofa cushions and herding the household cats. Or the other way around. Both are messy and involve constant clean up.

Anyway, you might well ask how I know Mittens wasn't planning on breaking New Eden's economy. The answer is that Mittens told me so. Well, not directly. Well, yes directly, but not in so many words.

All of EVE depends on fuel, and an extra-special amount of EVE depends on Oxygen Isotopes. These are the fuel for the most popular types of supercapitals, the Rorqual industrial ship, and for Gallente towers, which are the backbone of moon mineral reaction chains and thus of T2 production all across EVE.

See, as Mittens put it forward in his mission statement, this means that by systematically griefing Gallente ice harvesting in high sec space, his Goonswarm could bring industrial New Eden to its knees. An obvious lie. Therefore, Mittens did not plan on bringing the economy of New Eden to its knees. QED.

How do I know it was a lie? His lips were moving.

But that aside; the holes in this theory/plan from an economics standpoint are absolutely, unbelievably huge. To announce such a goal Mittens would have to be either made of two parts stupidity to one part hubris, or lying. So ask yourself this: Is Mittens stupid? See? Lying.

Oh, I won't say he doesn't entertain some secret dream of holding all of Eve hostage to his whims. We all need a dream. But there is more of Machiavelli than super villain in Mittens. No, this was an exercise in keeping the kiddies busy while engaging in a little market manipulation.

While it couldn't achieve its stated goal, the announcement of the interdiction by itself would cause oxygen isotope prices to spike due to market speculation by in game traders and the accelerated consumption of the isotopes needed to support the ongoing stockpiling of fuel cells. If the interdiction were successful in causing a production decline in overall oxygen isotope production, that would be bump the expected price spike further. But the impact of the actual interdiction was all gravy. All Mittens had to do was invest in the isotopes up front, announce the interdiction, and then cash in as the price rose. If the scam kept his troops well occupied while they waited for the winter war, all the better.

Of course, Mittens' announced goal of a complete 23/7 shut down of highsec ice production was never realized. I spent a good bit of time moving from one ice belt system to another observing the interdiction in operation, reading reports from sources on the ground and watching the supporting metrics. The effort was generally successful in the few designated staging systems, however enforcement of the interdiction elsewhere became sporadic after the initial excitement with the operation passed. Several systems appear to have been largely untouched after the interdiction's initial push. It wasn't uncommon to sit in a system for hours on end, watching a fleet of happy (if watchful) miners making little icebergs out of big ones - no doubt thanking Mittens for their the additional profit margin.

On Sunday, of course, Mittens called an end to the interdiction. He cashed in his isotopes at a nice profit and sent his goons into Branch to devil the Russians for a time. War against a neighboring nullsec power tends to hold the Goons attention better than war with mining barges.

An interesting byproduct of the venture was the degree to which some the miners worked to adapt to the Goon threat. Normally a miner will simply shut down operations and blue-ball a persistent griefer. In this case, without an expected end to the Goon campaign, and with the uptick in isotope prices making mining Gallente ice worth more risk, miners began experimenting with means of foiling the Goon attacks, or at least minimizing the related financial losses. Further, kill hungry PvE players began to haunt the ice belts in t1 PvP fit ships, waiting for an attacker. Knowing the Goon ships were fit for all gank and no tank and that their focus would be on the mining barges, it was a rare opportunity for the highsec PvE players to rack up some low risk Goonswarm kills.

I won't go into the precise tactics developed by the carebear side. Hulkageddon is just around the corner, and it will be interesting to see if the lessons learned by some of the carebears in the Gallente Ice Interdiction of 2011 get carried over and refined when the Hulk hunters come calling.

As ever, it's an ill wind that blows no one good.

Stabbed Up: POCO Wars

2011-12-15T04:02:00.000-08:00

As of December, Stabs is back in business at his blog Stabbed Up. He's published a nine-episode set of posts called POCO wars that involves adventures and misadventures with Player Owned Customs Offices in wormhole space. A good read and I recommend them.

Stabs is a thoughtful writer (A librarian over on the UK, so I understand. Jenny would approve.) who's held forth quite intelligently on Eve over time. I'd dropped him off my blog list as he'd stopped writing about Eve for a while and then stopped writing altogether in the Fall. However, it looks like he's returned and giving Eve some press, and I'm happy to see him back with us.

Some of you have already noticed his return. For those who haven't, stop in and give him some blog love.

The Golden Hour

2011-12-12T18:27:00.000-08:00

In emergency medicine, the golden hour refers to a time period lasting from a few minutes to several hours following traumatic injury being sustained by a casualty, during which there is the highest likelihood that prompt medical treatment will prevent death.
- Advanced Trauma Life Support

If you hang out in nullsec long enough, there's going to come a day when the barbarians get inside the walls. They're going to pillage and burn. They're going to perform unnatural acts with the livestock. They're going to laugh at you and call you all manner of impolite and impolitic names.

It's never a good day.

Defeat and retreat are part of the ebb and flow of fortunes that make nullsec what it is. However, unless you're role-playing Aeneas, being driven from your nullsec home and into the wilderness with your fellow exiles is never fun. And, as I say so often that you're probably rolling your eyes and mouthing the words as you read this, if your guys aren't having fun, they'll soon be somebody else's guys.

So, while you don't have to like it (in fact you shouldn't), you do need to be mindful of the possibility that you'll be overrun and have to make a strategic withdrawal and plan against that eventuality. If and when it comes to that, the last thing you want is everybody rushing for the exits in panic, leaving their fellows and most of their high-value assets behind. Nor do you want the veterans of nullsec bug-outs reading the writing on the wall and quietly moving their assets out on the sly, leaving the less experienced players holding the bag. Your pilots should be confident that, in the event the unthinkable happens, an organized evacuation plan is in place and will be executed in stages if the strategic situation begin to decay.

"But Mord," you might ask, "Doesn't an evacuation plan deliver the wrong message? Won't my pilots fight harder if they have to hold their ground or lose everything?"

In a word, 'Stalingrad'.

If your goal is for your organization to live and fight another day, you need to make sure your retreat doesn't turn into a rout. You want your guys to know you've got exit options covered so they can focus on the fight and not on finding a jump freighter pilot willing to move their stuff out of harms way. The more in the way of high-value ships and equipment you can save, the faster your pilots can regroup and get back in the game.

So, create a plan that balances the needs of your alliance and your corporation. Update your plan periodically in order to accommodate changes to your organization's pilot roster and equipment inventory. Circumstances will vary and there is no one-size-fits-all plan. A non-sov holding entity that has no military obligations (such as a nullsec renter) can pretty much pick up and move at the first sign of trouble. On the other hand, a member of a sov-holding alliance, or a renter who aspires to graduate to membership in said alliance, has to lock shields with the rest of the defenders and hold the line as long as is reasonable. Combined Indy/PvP organizations should plan for both sides of the house.

Most evacuation plans should allow for execution in phases. For Example:

Threat Level 1 - The bad guys have established a beach head in your area and you are subject to probing attacks. You believe your system(s) is a target, but they haven't arrived in force. Travel routes are still open. Pack up non-essential industrial and PvE items and move them to safety.

Threat Level 2 - The bad guys have broken out of the beach head and are on their way. Your territories are under direct threat and your system or key access points to your system are being routinely harassed by enemy gangs/fleets. Non-essential and "vanity" PvP ships should be moved to safety. Capital PvP ships not involved in the evacuation of non-essential ships should be moved a safe staging area behind friendly lines.

Threat Level 3 - You are in imminent danger of being overrun. Gate pipelines and jump-bridge networks are heavily interdicted by the enemy. General evacuation underway. Remaining ships, equipment and supplies not being used for rear-guard actions are evacuated by jump-ship and carrier. If the alliance is falling back to a secondary (or tertiary) defensive line and you're redeploying in support the alliance should have provided a system to use as a fall-back point. If you are evacuating alliance space altogether, a preselected rendezvous location should be designated.

Now, the moment when the greasy, bandy-legged barbarians crash through your gates and undertake a literal approach to animal husbandry is usually the culmination of a series of lesser misadventures. Your troops will likely have been fighting the rising tide for a while and been losing a lot more than they win as the siege went into end-game. Despite their stiff upper lips, vows of return and loyalty to the cause, morale is going to be low. They are going to be tired, discouraged and, in many cases, cash and equipment poor.

At this point you might think a leader could wipe the sweat from their brow, put their feet up, declare it Sapporo time and tell the kids to go out and play for a while. Alas, quite the opposite. From an organizational standpoint, this is the golden hour. What you do upon arrival in safe harbor will likely make the difference between whether your organization rises like a phoenix from the ashes of defeat or tumbles ignominiously into the abyss of failscade.

The first instinct of a lot of CEOs and directors is to cut the team loose and give them a couple of weeks to rat and kick back while the leadership team regroups and considers the the next move. Don't go there. At this point, structure is your friend. Keep the troops well occupied. Provide organized roams, ratting expeditions and training sessions. Set them to work restocking consumables like jump and POS fuels and ammunition. Find out who needs to be made whole and make doing so an organizational project.

Even before your last jump-ship makes its escape from the barbarian horde, start planning your organization's future and making preliminary contacts with future friends and allies. Let the rank and file know there are plans in motion. Once in safe harbor, set them to preparing. Spy missions, diplomatic outreach, recruiting, setting up logistics for the upcoming move are all tasks that will keep their eyes on the next big adventure and make it harder for other organizations to lure your best players away.

Like as not, nullsec's going to get pretty chaotic for the next quarter or two. That means a lot of small corporation CEOs will have to lead their people out of the wilderness to rebuild and reorganize. Whether or not their organizations survive and return to the deep thereafter will depend on the planning those leaders put in up front.

When Stories Collide

2011-12-10T06:36:00.000-08:00

"Comedy, love and a bit with a dog - that's what they want."
               Tom Stoppard, Shakespeare in Love

Unless your audience is made up of folk who consider themselves dedicated to serious literature (or summoning forth the Cthulhu), comedy should be one's first instinct when it comes to competitive writing such as the Ultimate Blog-Off of Destiny.

"Well, Mord," you might well ask, "If you knew that, why did you cast comedy blithely aside try to turn out a 1,500 word flash-fiction adventure/drama piece for said Blog-off?"

Ooh. Good question.

The story that ended up being Post Mortem began as a comedy. Think Eve Online meets Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, sans the more serious social commentary elements. Just the funny bits, thank you.

It started off well enough. Thomas and his stuffy, high-society mother (think Margaret Dumont) have words over his taste in fiances. Here mother has gone to the trouble of sending her son to the "right" schools where he can meet the "right" sort of girl, and he rewards here attention to his future well-being by bringing home a coarse, near psychopathic Minmatar killing machine. (The fact that she's Minmatar got left on the cutting room floor as I whittled the story down to the requisite 1,500 word limit.) Emma Javix, like any respectable Gallentean is all about freedom, self-determination and social justice. However, social justice has just landed at her dining room table and sunk hooks into her son in the form of this...this woman.

Comedic hijinks ensue

See? Funny stuff. Until I got to the 'hijinx' part.

For that I needed myself a near psychopathic Minmatar killing machine for Tomas' finance. And I know what those of you who've read the Interlude episodes of this blog are thinking: Mord has a thing for chicks in tight clothes carrying high powered guns. Nonsense. Mord is far too jaded and world-weary to be drawn to such things. However Mord knows his audience. The Science Fiction, Amime, Graphic Novel and Ships in Space culture is all about chicks in tight clothes carrying high-powered guns. So is the Fantasy culture, except those chicks carry swords, and are usually a bit more...ahem...gravity defying than their SF counterparts.

The comic possibilities of this hard-drinking, dockside-brawling, man-ravishing, borderline insane capsuleer dropped into Mrs Javix tidy, well insulated world is neigh limitless. I mean, we have the bit where she attends book-club with Emma Javix and does limericks, the sudden tendency of the household appliances to curse at Mrs. Javix in Minmatar, the accidental shooting of the fluffy family pet with explosive rounds.

So I send a call up to central casting with the character specifications; and who do they send me, but Molls. And Molls is not just another pretty face toting a large caliber side-arm. Oh, no.

Sometimes a character speaks to you; arrives fully formed and tells you his/her story. Writing about them is almost like taking dictation. Words flow and the presence of the character practically jumps off the page. Molly is such a character.

Trouble is, she was the wrong character for the story I was writing.

Molls is an Odysseus-like character who is not merely touched by fate, but grabbed up in its full embrace. She survives both the slaughter of her fleet and, impossibly, the loss of her pod. She fights her way across the length of New Eden; baffling pursuers, stepping over bodies, finding help in unlikely places, until she makes her way home. Only to find that, unlike Odysseus' Penelope, her own love has moved on to a new edition of herself.

"Geez Mord," you might say, "What's with all the drama? Why didn't she just buy, borrow or steal a shuttle and get back to her home system before mid-day mess call the next day?"

My, you're full of questions this morning. Unfortunately, to answer this one I have to take a brief side-trip down one of the rabbit holes of my imagination. Hang on, and and be sure to keep your arms, legs and other appendages inside the car until the ride has come to a complete halt. .

Now, in New Eden, we assume that the transition of "you" from your pod to your medical clone is foolproof; that surviving pod-splat after your memories, et al are transmitted to to your medical clone simply can't happen. In fact the systems that facilitate the transition are specifically designed to make sure you don't accidentally survive. Of course they also make sure pod "you" doesn't suffer unduly after the transition to med clone "you" has been accomplished. Personally I think the latter is a secondary use of the specialized bit of pod technology that hits you with a lethal injection to the brain. It certainly sounds a lot better than saying you're being killed so you don't become a legal "inconvenience" for your newly woken up self.

You see, not only your memories, skills, personality and such get transferred to your clone. Your legal identity is transferred as well. So, to ensure smooth continuation of the capsuleer economy and culture, it's important that any loose ends be (ahem) taken care of. And you, out there in the middle of the deep and trying to breath vacuum as your pod loses integrity, represent a profound loose end. Hence the needle. After all, we can't have two (or more) of you wandering about. Quite messy for the legal, economic, and theological institutions alike. Confusing for spousal units and offspring. And don't get me started on the security risks.

No, there can be only one.

And if there is the needle, there must be other safeguards as well in the wildly unlikely event that the needle, the ordinance tearing your pod apart and the vacuum of space don't quite do the job of ensuring your demise. With your identity legally transferred to your clone, you would effectively become a non-person, unable to legally participate in any aspect of New Eden that requires identity. No bank account. No medical system. No legal protection. You can be killed by the locals without legal repercussion. The genetic mapping associated with any attempt at acquiring such services or a new identity would immediately tag you as an illegal clone of your legal self, i.e, that medical clone who assumed your identity when you "died". Notified by such attempts to re-enter the system, the authorities would quickly locate you, bring you in, and take humane measures to ensure a dignified end to your suffering.

And yes, that's a euphemism for sticking a needle full of neuro-toxins into your brain.

That's the essence of the situation Molly's dumped into at the beginning of her story arc, the driver of its central conflict. So, as you see, she was simply the wrong character for a spoof of Gallente high society - faction warfare meets the Marx brothers. And there was no question of adapting her to the story. With characters like Molls one has some latitude for change, subject to the character's approval. But there is a certain truth to such characters and if you force them to follow directions beyond certain bounds, they go limp and lifeless in your imagination's eye. You end up with a sock-puppet of a character with no spark of life or literary ring of truth.

So I dismissed Molly and set about the task of summoned up a more comedically suitable ingenue.

Molls wouldn't leave.

Try as I might, I wasn't able to get her out of the story. I was going to write about Molls, or I wasn't going to write. Character persistence is an interesting variation on the "earworm" phenomenon, where you can't get a tune out of your head. You can either wait it out, or sing the song out loud a few times, thereby satisfying whatever part of your brain that's latched onto it. Same with character persistence. You wait out the character, or you give in and write about them.

With my 24 hour deadline ticking down, I was in poor a negotiating position. Thus, Postmortum was born; an awkward collision of two wildly different stories with Molly acting as the glue holding things together. If you go back an look closely at the story carefully, you'll see the places where the "true" Molls peeks out and where she's just reading the lines I fed her.

Molly and Postmortum will go into my desk drawer for a while. I don't know that I'll ever write Molly's story. What with the restrictions the commercial Eve paradigm places on plots, characters and such, not to mention the intellectual property issues, I've no plans to write Eve fiction beyond the odd throw away piece. Molls' story is novel-length, and if I put that much work into a project, it needs to be satisfying to write and have a potential pay-day once it's completed.

But, after some time has passed, I'll sit Molly down in my mind's eye and see what she has to say to me. If her character's drifted enough be able to tell me her story in a setting outside the Eve universe, it could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship. We'll see.

It's all up to Molls.

Girl-fight in Outer Passage

2011-12-09T04:18:00.000-08:00

The much-anticipated fraternal brawl between Legion of Death and Solar Fleet has gotten off to an uninspiring start. Solar Fleet has taken two systems (UC-8XF and MC4C-H), however those are from the renter alliance, Shadow of Death, and neither are station systems. One of the two systems to change hands, UC-8XF, appears to have done so with minimal, if any resistance.

As Steve alerted me to last night, a few fleet battles of some size finally erupted in the neighboring station systems J-OKB3 and 4AZV-4. Solar Fleet seems to have shown up with a combined Maelstrom and Drake fleet. The other side looks to have been primarily DRF renters: Shadow of Death, Voodoo Technologies and a sprinkling of others.

Yeah. DRF versus DRF tenant nullsec bears. I won't bother reporting the outcome.

Of course, Legion of Death was represented. They sent along a contingent of Baddons and the inevitable Drakes to add some meat to the hash of ships the renter alliances brought to the line, but anyone who's familiar with DRF fleet fights can tell it wasn't a serious effort. And there doesn't seem to have been a single capital ship, let alone a supercap, in sight.

In the nullsec scale of things, this was the equivalent of two milkmaids out in the meadow slapping each other and pulling each others' hair.

So, let's walk down events to date. Much grumbling and resetting of Legion and Solar over renter stuff. A couple of low-value renter systems change hands. Token fleet fight in renter station systems, in which the renters get slapped around by their landlord's brother in law.

War and Peace it ain't.

In fact, one could wonder whether Legion of Death and Solar Fleet are genuinely at odds with each other at all. A fight between two alliances where only renters get hurt is hardly a fight at all. Especially when it's not like the renters can go anywhere else, what with the DRF owning 70% of nullsec.

Given events, I'm beginning to think the alleged falling out among the DRF is a bit of shadow play; yet another prelude to the dance to come.

The Great Sitzkrieg of 2011

2011-12-04T18:39:00.000-08:00

There have been some preliminary bouts out in nullsec. I consider these sparring matches; warm-ups as a number of alliances such as Against All Authorities, Gypsy Band, The Initiative, Brick Squad, Test Alliance and Pandemic Legion exercise various aspects of the Crucible changes in fleet fight mode. The main event has yet to come, but the long and tedious Great Sitzkrieg that occupied the better part of 2011 is finally coming to a close.

Letting slip the dogs of war sooner rather than later must be tempting. It has been a long, dry season of waiting for the Winter Supercaptial Nerf, and there is a restlessness bordering the nullsec space presently held by the DRF, their vassals and their tenants. Even so, I expect the opening skirmishes to continue through December. The Winter holidays loom, and any invasion begun now will soon stall as capsuleers abandon the fleets in order to man the carving board, travel and spend time with family. Only when they return, well fed, over-socialized and wiping the last smears of plum pudding from their chins, should the battles begin in earnest.

Alas, the holidays may be cheerless for poor Morsus Mihi. Toward the end of November they had redeployed from Delve along with Gypsy Band and Brick Squad to nullsec's NPC Curse region in anticipation of a post-supercapital nerf invasion of DRF space. They may not make it past the dessert buffet at the latke party . At the turn of the month, with the end of the 2011 Sitzkrieg in sight, four key corporations (Fusion Enterprises, Oberon Incorporated, Macabre Votum and hirr) which comprised fully half of MM's membership bolted for the door.

Even Crucible's bundle of spaceship love can't overcome Mord's Maxim: If your guys aren't having fun, they'll soon be someone else's guys.

In this case, Macabre Votum and hirr, the two largest PvP corporations exiting MM have become Against All Authorities' (-A-) guys. That move should dampen any early celebrations of MM's misfortune of the part of the DRF. -A- has spent the Sitzkrieg substantially improving the quality of their nullsec fleets. Adding two seasoned nullsec PvP corporations to those fleets, each with over three hundred accounts, will not be a cause for joy in the DRF board rooms.

The termination of the 'logoffski' mechanic, which allowed supercapital ships to escape if they could endure 15 minutes of inbound fire, has added a new layer of risk to deploying supercapitals. Likewise, a number of changes to the ships themselves have made them more vulnerable to subcapital fleets. Initially this may favor the DRF more than their enemies as the Drone Russians should have a sizable stockpile of supercaptials left over from the NC campaign and, given the vast income that comes of holding 70% of nullsec's large-bore Isk faucets, will have likely added to it during the Sitzkrieg.

In a RL military, the equipment involved is normally the property of the state. Sending an aircraft carrier or a platoon of tanks into harms way may risk the lives of the soldiers and sailors manning the equipment, but the loss of the equipment itself does not put the personal wealth of said soldiers and sailors at risk. In Eve the opposite is true. Fleet pilots killed in action simply wake up in their clone vat, but the loss of a ship, along with its fittings and the implants needed to effectively fly it, represents a personal financial loss to its pilot. In the case of supercapital pilots this loss is profound, both in terms of personal wealth and future revenue. Thus, a supercapital pilot may well be risk-averse when it comes to committing his or her property to combat.

Of course, well-heeled nullsec alliances typically offset this risk aversion by offering replacements for supercapital ships lost in combat (usually with a don't-be-stupid clause voiding replacement if the ship was lost due to pilot idiocy). However, in the case of supercaps a financial reimbursement may be insufficient to bring a new ship to the line if no actual replacements are available. Despite their post-Crucible vulnerabilities, the supercapitals the DRF has stockpiled should allow their FCs to be aggressive in their deployments of the ships as they can afford losses their enemies couldn't begin to absorb. Meanwhile, enemies without such reserves will be even more tentative about deploying supercapitals in post-Crucible Eve than before.

However, the DRF paradigm, based on a relatively small number of elite and highly mobile supercapital pilots, depends heavily on the ability of large supercapital fleets to operate in relative safety against subcapital fleets unsupported by their own supers. With grouped Titans unable to target Hictors, Command, or Logistic ships, or instapop enemy fleet commanders, subcapital fleets will have the opportunity to make the DRF pay big any time they play the supercapital card too aggressively.

If the DRF is challenged on many fronts, their ability to properly support supercapitals with subcapital fleets will be diminished. In that case, the likely response will be their usual tactic of giving ground on selective fronts and letting their enemies spend their strategic momentum in reducing undefended stations and sovereignty infrastructure while the DRF deals with more immediate threats elsewhere. However, that tactic could work against them this time. Even non-supercapital alliances now have the opportunity to take space as long as their fleets are well supplied with Heavy Interdictors and have the DPS needed to grind through a supercapital's defenses. By giving ground too early and too easily, the DRF could encourage alliances that might have stayed on the sidelines to enter the fray.

Of critical importance now will be the diplomatic maneuverings that occur between now and the new year. Information will flow freely, wound about and shot through with disinformation. Offers and promises will be made; some sincere and some intended to be broken. This is the true great game of nullsec; the prelude to the coming dance.

Eve at its Machiavellian best

Customs

2011-11-27T06:59:00.000-08:00

Ah, the lowsec love offensive at Fiddler's Edge continues.

Of the changes planned for the impending Crucible release of Eve Online, the one that intrigues me most is the advent of destructible player owned custom offices in lowsec and nullsec space. (OK, that and the Amarr t3 battlecruiser which, while weak on capacitor, looks very cool.)

Now, back in the days of CSM 5, then CSM chair Mynxee was collecting player input on desired lowsec improvements as part of her Making Lowsec Matter campaign. A lot of interesting suggestions were made, and if I had to net them out into a single overarching want, it would be: Put valuable stuff in lowsec that will lure in more Carebear targets, but not stuff so valuable as to attract those Isk-grubbing, structure shooting null-sec alliances. Obviously, that doesn't encompass all the suggestions put forward, but cultivating a target-rich environment struck me as the closest thing to a common thread running through the Making Low Sec Matter forum.

Oddly enough, PI in lowsec became exactly that sort of phenomenon.

As Kirith Kodachi pointed out in his walk-down of the Crucible modifications, a number of enterprising high-sec industrialists have been engaging in ninja lowsec PI production. Planets in lowsec provide a higher yield of PI materials than their highsec counterparts. Further, the dangers associated with lowsec mean there is much less competition for more abundant PI resources. Once the ninja industrialist has discovered a PI rich planet in lowsec, it's simply a matter of sneaking in and dropping a command center onto said planet.

After that the entire extraction and manufacturing operation can be managed remotely, without the industrialist having to kick off his or her bunny slippers. However, finished PI goods sitting on the planet are of no use or value to our ninja industrialist; those goods must be repatriated every now and then. And that means that, sooner or later, our ninja industrialists (or their proxies) must leave those bunny slippers by the door and slip back to into lowsec, sidle up to the lowsec planet's customs office and retrieve their stealthily gotten goods.

Of course, lowsec players of a piratical bent are hardly asleep at the switch. They've become aware of these goings on and some of them have begun playing cat and mouse with the indy ninjas; staking out customs offices on planets with evidence of PI activity when the industrialists are in-system, or likely to come calling. While this is usually a cat and mouse game and not an outright turkey shoot, it has provided additional targets and lively hunting opportunities for the rogues and scalawags of lowsec.

With the upcoming Crucible expansion, customs offices will become structures that can be destroyed and replaced (or not) with player-owned custom offices. With player-owned offices, access to the customs office can be restricted. Futher, the isk-sinks represented by the payment of customs taxes to NPC offices turn into isk-transfer mechanisms. The owners of player-owned customs offices will both set and collect the associated taxes and can set taxes to varying levels based on the standing of the office's users with the owners.

Now, how this change will be absorbed into nullsec play is pretty straightforward. Galactic landlords are always looking for ways to separate Isk from their industrial tenants and this provides them one more. Some may try to exercise total control of customs offices via the renter alliance's holding corp, but given the number of planets involved, that involves a good bit of work of the sort most PvP landlords find distasteful. A more likely approach will be to charge a monthly PI tax per customs office a tenant corporation controls, or a PI tax per system in which a tenant is allowed to control customs offices.

However, in lowsec things get really interesting. As Kirith points out, a good bit of head-scratching is going on with regard to how this mechanic will play in lowsec, and what the fallout of the play that emerges will have on lowsec and on the the overall Eve economy.

While player entities with industrial interests exist in lowsec, small gang PvP is the predominant style of play. Entities that favor this play style tend to self-select away from business or industrial occupations. I would think the idea of building and protecting structures, even structures with an income or logistics potential, has too much the tang of sovereignty warfare for the footloose gangs of PvP players.

Lowsec corporations and alliances with an industrial component or those seeking to generate their own POS fuels might be inclined to maintain customs offices. However, in lowsec a structure that has your name all over it and no reinforce timer practically screams the owner's presence and is an obvious target for hostile entities or even casually malicious passers-by. It seems likely that only a big dog in lowsec who can quickly run off interlopers across all time zones, or someone living in an exceedingly low-traffic backwater, is going to invest in such structures.

I suspect at first the main attraction of the new Customs Offices will lie in their destructibility and look to see lowsec gangs merrily blasting away at them for the novelty of seeing them explode. Mind, there are an awful lot of these offices and I expect that, once the novelty has worn off, a population that prides themselves on not spending ammo on structures will stop doing so indiscriminately.

With the planned de-nerfing of anomalies widening the ratting isk-faucets in lowsec, I don't expect the potential income player owned structures represent to be a sufficient incentive for lowsec corporations or alliances to take the trouble to build, defend and manage player owned customs offices. Those lowsec corporations that engage in PI for logistics purposes (POS consumables, for example) will likely attempt to use NPC owned offices rather than building an obvious target for their enemies.

Ninja industrialists will, of course, be restricted to NPC offices unless they can cut a deal with a lowsec entity willing to provide them with access to a player owned structure and free passage to use it. While orbital launch from the PI command center can be used to bypass the customs office at present, it remains to be seen whether this will be possible when a player owned office is present, or in the absence of a customs office altogether. Even if orbital launch is permitted, the volume of materials that can be lifted to orbit from a command center is very limited. This will mean a slower and much more tedious harvesting process, which will make that activity both more costly and more dangerous for lowsec and ninja industrialists alike.

Much depends on how quickly lowsec disposes of its NPC customs offices. As those decline in number, so too will the availability of PI materials in highsec and lowsec markets. This, of course, will drive up the cost of items and activities for which those materials are a critical input.

Such market turmoil will be no never-mind for lowsec's purist PvP corporations. Any resulting price hikes for ships and fittings should be offset by the income provided by the buffed anomalies. Meanwhile, a spike in the price of PI materials means greater rewards for those industrialists willing to risk lowsec in order to harvest riches where NPC customs offices remain. Thus, a reduction in the number of lowsec planets open to PI could actually result in an uptick in the number of Carebears venturing into lowsec.

Which is what the pirates and griefers of lowsec wanted in the first place.

Results: Lives In Low Sec

2011-11-25T13:15:00.000-08:00

The turnout for the Lives in Low Sec writing contest was small, but what the field lacked in quantity it made up for in quality. Each author brought their A-game. The entrants, as you'll recall, are:

Flight of the Hibernia by Tressador
Swinging Lucifer's Hammer by Rixx Javix
Essence by Xi 'xar
The Tide Pool by Rhavas
Spoon by lovelylittlevagabond

First place was a very tough call. I always enjoy Rixx Javix's literary 'voice', and with Swinging Lucifer's Hammer he finds another gear, taking it up a notch more. He renders his story with a rich prose style, textured with details that draw the reader into the narrative. Rhavas' The Tide Pool, while more stylistically spare than Hammer, pulls the camera back and describes two PvP corporations locked in a battle of attrition. Alternating between the antagonists' points of view, his story of the war's ebb and flow draws a compelling portrait of the combatants, highlighting their individual actions while maintaining the larger story arc and investing it with dramatic tension.

First Place: The Tide Pool

Second Place: Swinging Lucifer's Hammer

Essence and Flight of the Hibernia both tighten the focus and give us stories of individual capsuleers in combat. While both were well written, Essence features a taut and visceral prose style, and the four poetic lines he uses punctuate his story provide it with poignancy and speak elegantly to the contest's theme.

This is lowsec, a place to be forgotten.
This is lowsec, where it is always a trap.
This is lowsec, where I lie in wait, a spider in the dark…
This is lowsec, where I lay to rest the pieces of my shattered soul.

Third Place: Essence

There is little doubt in my mind as to which prize lovelylittlevagabond had in her sights. Her lowsec encounter with the mad, bad and dangerous to know Rixx Javix is at once dramatic and whimsical. I'm quite sure it tickled Rixx from the tips of his toes to the top of his twitter hat. Speaking of whimsy, the story does involve a dread pirate bantering with the ingenue while hiding in plain sight from the authorities. So...

Best Story Featuring Rixx Javix & Jack Sparrow Prizes: Spoon

Although Tressador's Flight of the Hibernia did not finish in the money (this time - I look forward to future works by him) he was first to the line in a strong field of entries. In appreciation, I'm awarding him a special 50 million Isk prize
.
Alas, while there were battles and banter a'plenty, not a single cloak, dagger or act of thievery crossed the desk at Fiddler's Edge. With that, the Best Cloak & Dagger Story of Thievery Prize will not be awarded this time around, and the Blood Raiders Ashimmu will remain in Kaeda Maxwell's hanger for now.

Finally, I want to give a special mention to Stalking Mantis. While he had no submissions that met the criteria for this contest, he has been posting some very nice lowsec Faction Warfare stories (all based on in game events) in the Eve forums. I encourage you to stop by and give them a read.

With that, we close the book on this edition of the Lives in Low Sec writing contest. Despite the low turn out (I personally blame this month's wildly successful Blog Banter topic from Seismic Stan) I am encouraged by the good writing in the entries received.

Keep your weapons primed, your pencils sharp and look forward to another contest some time in the new year.

Mord Fiddle and the Ultimate Blog-Off of Destiny

2011-11-21T04:40:00.000-08:00

One would think that the life of a podcaster was pretty sweet: An hour of goofing off with your buds on Skype, followed by a bit of audio editing punctuated by trips to the kitchen for another beer, and then its off to be feted at yet another gala luncheon. Turns out there's actually hard work involved.

I know. Who'd have thought it.

As described last Thursday, Seismic Stan and I faced off this weekend in what Arydanika of Voices of the Void has dubbed variously, The Ultimate EVE Online Bloggist Throw Down, The Ultimate Blog-Off of Destiny and The Throwdown Showdown in Blogtown. Personally, I prefer The Ultimate Blog-Off of Destiny. It makes be feel all Indiana Jones and stuff.

Beginning at noon on Friday, we each received the three-word trigger for our stories which had to be under 1,500 words and be completed in twenty four hours. I finished with twenty minutes and two words to spare. My story (Postmortum, which appears below) was a conventional fiction piece involving an upper class Gallentian boy who brings an Eve Capsuleer home to mother. Stan's entry was a two character radio play; a Monty Pythonesque romp with no less than four titles (I prefer The Accidental Capsuleer) which you can read over at Freebooted.

Then it was off to the recording studio. Without intending to, we'd each rather hobbled the other when if came to performance. Stan loves radio drama and I'd given him a conventional "bed time story". On top of it, the primary characters in Postmortum are both female and, according to Stan, female character voices are not in his sweet spot (though I think he does very well).

I on the other hand, was handed a radio drama featuring two very obviously English men that would have to be laid down on at least two tracks. My voice is fairly distinct and, while I can do multiple characters, there is absolutely no hope of playing both at once in a single dialogue and maintaining any illusion that they are being voiced by separate actors. On top of it, I am not the man you want doing an English accent. Let's just say that one character's accent is all over the map, as if possessed by a throng of ghosts from a BBC casting call.

After some hours of wrestling with the audio recording software, my contribution went over the wall to Arydanika over at Voices from the Void. Dani took both Stan and my contributions and slaved long into the night in order to bring the whole mess into a coherent whole and add it to the latest V and V podcast. Go listen. Go vote.

Sure, instead of blearily toiling away at one o'clock in the morning Greenwich Mean Time, Stan could have been abed and sweetly dreaming. And Aridanika could have been out last night, tipping back a beer with friends and enjoying the urbane Texas night life instead of toiling away at her editors desk. It seems they're both suckers for a bit of silliness.

Props to you both, Dani and Stan.

~ ~ ~

Postmortem

“Mother, you said you’d give her a chance.”

Emma Javix glanced nervously toward the door that led from the kitchen to the dining room.

“I know, Thomas” she said quietly to her son, “I want to. I mean she seems perfectly lovely, but…”

“You hate her.” Thomas, a young man with the patrician features of the Gallentean well born, crossed his arms

“No, I don’t hate her," Emma said. “She’s just…just….”

“Bizarre?” Thomas offered sarcastically, “Grotesque?”

“Don’t be coarse,” sniffed Emma, primly. "She’s exotic," She patted his arm. “Sweetheart, I understand perfectly the attraction. She must seem…a refreshing change from the local girls and the women at university. But you must think of your future.”

Thomas frowned. “You said as long as I married a professional…”

“I meant a doctor. An interstellar trade lawyer. Not a…”

“Capsuleer, Mother. Molls is a capsuleer. It’s not a dirty word.”

His mother’s eyes narrowed and she leaned in close. “There are influential persons who would say otherwise,” she hissed.

“You know, I can hear you,” a young female voice called from other room.

Emma Javix froze, her eyes darting toward the door and then back to her son in an unspoken question.

“Perception implants,” he said, smiling grimly, “Hears like a cat.” He turned on his heel and went into the dining room.

Molly Stark sat slouched in a high-backed chair talking with Thomas’ father. She had one leg slung over the chair’s arm and the opposite foot propped on the dining table. She was a slim, long limbed woman. She wore form fitting glove-leather pants and a snug black t-shirt. A heavy looking pistol was slung under her arm in a shoulder rig.

Her head was shaved and, at various places on her scalp, were small colored plates beneath which, Emma understood, were implants; small cybernetic units wired into her brain, augmenting senses and reflexes. The sockets of Molly’s eyes were covered by matte green lenses; ocular implants, Thomas had said. They were opaque, decorated with a circuit-board pattern and melded to the flesh around the eye. As Molly turned to smile at Thomas, her blank gaze reminded Emma of a predatory insect.

“Hello lover,” Molly said, raising a clear glass of colorless liquor to her lips.

Thomas’ father Drew sat close by, a broad grin on his face; obviously engaged by the girl’s novelty, much to Emma’s irritation. He had set aside his usual red wine and was drinking the home made “hooch” Molly had brought with her.

As Thomas sat in the seat next to Molly, she grabbed him by the front of the shirt, pulled him toward her and favored him with a deep kiss.

“It seems,” Drew said to Emma, “That Miss Stark here dies on a regular basis.”

“Mmmm. Occupational hazard,” Molly said as she released Thomas from their kiss.

“How…interesting,” Emma said as slipped into the chair opposite Molly. “I’ve heard capsuleers clone themselves and, ah, wake up in them if they die in combat.”

“Well, not just in combat,” said Molly. “I’ve known capsuleers to off themselves ‘cause they were unhappy with a tattoo or a bad haircut.”

“Facinating,” said Emma shakily. She took a sip of wine. “Tell me, Miss Stark….”

“Call me Molls”

“Molls. Ah, tell me Molls, how often have you, um….”

“Died?” asked Molly. She took a sip of her drink and appeared to be calculating in her head. “You know, after the first fifty or sixty times, it all sort of blurs together. I’ve kinda lost count over the years. Last time was a week ago, just before I shipped planet-side.”

“Does it hurt?”

“Hurt? Hah! Lessee, your ship’s been blown, your pod’s lost integrity, everything’s on fire and you’re starting to suck vacuum. Then your pod’s systems jam a fat needle full of neurotoxins into the base of your brain.” Molly tossed off her drink.

“Hurts like a sonofabitch,” she said as she poured herself another. “But it’s over quick.”

Emma’s hand shook as she set down her wineglass. “I see,” she said. “But I would find the idea of copies of myself lying in vats in this star system or that, waiting for me to die, disturbing. I mean, what if one woke up while one was still alive. ”

Molly snorted. “Sweetie, clones are tightly controlled and the systems have safeguards on top of safeguards.” She smiled and shook her head. “There’re old spacer stories about it, but I’ve never heard of it actually happening.”

“But what about the bodies?” Drew asked. “I mean, if you’ve died so many times there must be, you know…corpses. Your corpses, floating about in space.”

“Hell yeah!” Molly laughed. “There’s regular traffic in celebrity corpses. A famous pod pilot will run you a half billion easy. Hell, I’ve got three of my own corpses on ice at home.”

“You keep your own corpses?

“Sure. On ice,” nodded Molly. “In a display rack.”

She slapped her free hand on Thomas’ thigh. “Hell Tommy and I screw on the rug in front of them every time I die.”

Thomas’ face flushed and Emma looked back and forth between them. “That’s…that’s ghastly!” She stammered.

“Hell no,” Molly said. “It’s all life affirming and shit. Sort of ‘look at me, you dead ‘ol cobs!’ I’m alive and they’re not and I’ve got a young stud to do me proper while I look up at them, all cold and packed in ice.”

The synthesized voice of the house computer spared Emma Javix from the need to respond.

“Mrs. Ravix,” it said. “A fault has been discovered in the oven.”

“Oh, what now?” Emma groaned. “Computer,” she said raising her voice. “What is the matter with the oven?”

“A fault has been discovered in the oven,” the voice repeated.

“But what sort of….” began Emma

“A fault has been discovered in the oven,” the voice persisted as the smell of smoke began emanating from the kitchen.
.
Emma clenched her fists “Oh, now this is just too much.”

“A fault has been discovered in the oven.”

Molly rocked her chair forward and stood up. “Want me to have a word with it?”

“With the oven?”

“Well, yeah,” Molly reached back behind her right ear, grimaced for a moment, and then produced a small plastic disk about the size of a fingernail. “See? AI interface.”

“But Darling,” said Emma “Isn’t that for, ah, interfacing with your ship.”

Molly looked at the disk and shrugged. “Small component diagnostics,” she said as she left the table and walked into the kitchen. “Not a lot of difference between an antimatter injector and a dishwasher. Software is software.”

“See?” Thomas muttered to his mother under his breath. “She’s handy.”

“Are you alright, dear?” Emma called toward the kitchen.

“Heh. All I’m getting from your oven is ‘Destroy all humans’,” Molly called back. “You might want to hit the autoclean once in a while.”

And then the front door to the apartment blew in.

They heard the sound of the explosion before the shock wave that twisted the door off its hinges knocked them from their chairs. Smoke filled the living room as they staggered to their feet and through its choking haze a slender figure strode toward them.

“Molly,” said Thomas under his breath.

The woman standing before them could have been Molly’s twin. But her clothing was a motley collection of rags and the side of her face, where it wasn’t bandaged, was horribly burned and swollen. The left ocular implant had been shattered and the eye beneath was swollen almost shut. Her left arm was bound up in a splint, but the right hand held a large bore revolver on them, and was steady as a rock.

“Where is she?” she woman snarled.

“What the hell is going on out here?” yelled an identical voice behind them.

Emma turned to see Molly standing in the kitchen door, her automatic drawn.

“Oh my god,” Emma said looking back and forth between the women. “Molly’s clone.”

“Bitch!” Molly’s ragged twin yelled and fired first, her shots riding high and to the right. Explosive rounds tore huge chunks from the dining room wall as Molly rolled to the side and came up firing. With a hiss, her doppelganger leapt backwards into the living room, disappearing into the smoke. Molly ran past the table, snatching up a steak knife as she did, and dove into the room after her.
Through the smoke the family heard the sounds of struggle; a gunshot, breaking furniture and bodies slamming against walls. Suddenly there was a cry that gurgled down into silence.

Minutes passed. The household fans kicked in to vent the smoke, and a figure emerged from the haze and slumped to her knees in front of the family. Molly adjusted her ragged clothing and wiped bright arterial blood from a bandaged cheek.

“Wow” she panted. “Sorry I’m late, Tommy.” She smiled wearily at Emma’s son.

“Come give me a kiss.”

Rumors of War

2011-11-18T04:42:00.000-08:00

A few weeks ago, rumors that Morsis Mihi (MM) was pulling out of Delve and heading North again began percolating in several forums.

Spot checks on Delve indicate MM activity there has been tailing off for the last week. That, along with the occurrence of combined MM, Brick Squad and Gypsy Band fleet activity in Curse and lighter harassing forays into into Scalding Pass indicate that MM and their allies are indeed attempting to re-establish themselves in the North after months of exile in the Delve "Thunderdome".

A move into Curse would indicate that the dispossessed alliances are establishing a base of operations in the the NPC region from which they could launch strikes into Scalding Pass against DRF targets. By establishing themselves in Curse now, over a week before the Crucibal release, they could be well positioned and provisioned to begin large scale operations soon after the planned Winter Supercapital nerf is deployed.

Incursions into DRF sovereign space in early December may allow the exiles to consolidate any early gains during the Christmas and New Year holidays, when capsuleer activity tends to fall off.

Re-Entry

2011-11-17T12:41:00.000-08:00

One would think returning to Eve after a Summer abroad would be easy; a simple bit of picking up where one left off. But, even with the return of ship spinning, I find myself little disoriented. Getting reorganized is painful. I've no idea where I stowed that can of BPOs or why I parked my Legion half way across known space from my re-entry location.

Then there's shopping around for a new corporation; a job made much harder by the current CCP charm offensive. With all the resulting Ships in Space changes being bundled up for the Crucible Release a lot of pent-up change is going to hit New Eden all at once. And about four to six weeks after it hits, all that change is definitely going to drive some upheaval in New Eden. I dislike kicking my heels in an NPC corporation, but post-Crucible New Eden has the potential to alter the composition and strategic direction on any corporation I join pre-Crucible.

In the meantime I've gotten myself into a wee throw-down with Seismic Stan over at Freebooted.

As many of you know, he did a wonderful job of performing Fever Dream about a week or so back (his Brian Blessing impression alone is worth the price of admission). Over the weekend I was on Twitter and said (or tweeted, to use the proper verb) that I'd have to do a read-off with him one of these days. Next thing I know Stan pops to the surface and says he accepts my challenge, but it should be both a writing AND a reading throw-down. So I said "yer on" but that we should each read the other's writing to make it more interesting.

About that moment Arydanika, Stan's co-host on Voices from the Void, pops to the surface and volunteers to air the readings and have the V and V listeners vote for the winner. A few details were hashed out and I am now party to what Arydanika has dubbed "The Ultimate EVE Online Bloggist Throw Down".

What with Stan's animated delivery, his English as the Royal Shakespeare Company accent, and performing in his own venue, I will be hard pressed. But trust, gentle readers, that I will do my level best to bring home the win for the Guthrie Theatre and the good old US of A.

Writing Contest: Lives in Low Sec

2011-11-15T09:45:00.000-08:00

“Mos Eisley spaceport. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.”
- Obi wan Kenobi, Star Wars

Sharpen up your pencils and start your word processors. Mord Fiddle is pleased to announce the first ever Lives in Low Sec Writing Contest.

Obviously, Obi wan had never been to New Eden's lowsec. Lowsec is the dark heart of the beast. A place teeming with the dregs of humanity. Pirates. Thieves. Grifters. Jaywalkers. They all find their way to lowsec sooner or later. Lowsec makes Mos Eisley look like effing Mayberry. In lowsec, if it's not nailed down, they'll steal it. If it is nailed down, they'll tear up the floorboards and steal it anyway.

I'm looking for stories that highlight the particular (ahem) character of lowsec. I'm looking for political intrigue, rogues on the run, clever scams, spaceway robbery, against-all-odds heists, how you bailed the corp loudmouth out of (yet another) tight spot he'd gotten you into. I'm looking for human drama. The compelling or larger than life characters are not only welcome but the best way to win.

The Rules:

Bloggers from all across New Eden are welcome to participate in the Lives in Low Sec Writing Contest, but the events described must take place in low security space.
Pure fiction is not allowed. The events described must have actually occurred in lowsec.
Poetic license, being life's blood to a good story, is assumed and outright encouraged.
All entries must be published in your Eve Online blog.
If you wish to enter Lives In Low Sec Writing Contest but don't have an Eve Online blog...well, this would be a nice time to start one, wouldn't it?
To enter, simply post your entry in your blog and send Mord Fiddle the link via his gmail account.
New blog posts only! Entries to the Lives In Low Sec Writing Contest predating midnight,November 16 will not be considered.
All entries to the Lives In Low Sec Writing Contest must be received no later than noon (EST), November 22, 2011
A list of entries received will be maintained on Fiddler's Edge.
Mord Fiddle will judge the entries and announce the winners.
Jenny, Mord's former research librarian, will provide covering fire.

The Prizes*:

First Place: 400 million ISK and Infinite Bragging Rights
Second Place: 200 million ISK and Stratospheric Bragging Rights
Third Place: 100 Million ISK and Somewhat Lofty bragging rights

Best Story Featuring Rixx Javix Prize: 250 million ISK and choice of Pirate Frigate (Contributed by Rixx Javix)
Jack Sparrow Prize: A fitted Zephyr to the story best embodying the spirit and whimsy of Cap'n Jack (Contributed by Duncan Feldane)
Best Cloak & Dagger Story of Thievery Prize: A Blood Raiders Ashimmu (Contributed by Kaeda Maxwell)

The Entries:

*Persons wishing to contribute additional items or ISK to the above prizes, or contribute to an additional "special category prize" (e.g. Most 'Lovable Rogue' Character, Best Bit 'O Larceny, Best Story Featuring Arydanika) please contact Mord at his gmail address.

The Narrative Gap

2011-11-11T06:41:00.000-08:00

"We're all stories in the end. Just make it a good one, eh?"
- Steven Moffat, Doctor Who: The Big Bang

Four men, armed with swords and axes approach each other on a spit of sand. A fight ensues. One man takes an axe to the neck and goes down. The axe catches in the victim's collar bone and as his killer tries to jerk it free he's (quite literally) disarmed by the other opponent. The remaining two face off for a moment, then come together in a clash of steel. Meanwhile two more men approach from either side of the sand spit.

The scene continues in this wise for some time with never more than two to three men on either side. Eventually, men stop joining the fight from one side. The two fighters on the other side wait a while, talking quietly with each other, and then return from whence they came.

I could provide the details of each pass at arms, but after two to three cycles it would be as tedious for me to write as it would be for you to read. I would have to work very hard to keep it interesting; to make each fighter and each blow they struck or took meaningful in order to keep your attention. After the twentieth or thirtieth death, dismemberment or disembowlment, you'd probably have moved onto another blog or be shaking your laptop while screaming at me to get to the point of all this bloody mishigas.

Now, if I pull the story's point of view camera back a bit, you would see that the narrow spit of sand is the only way of fording a tidal pool that stands between two small armies. On one side is a raiding party of about three hundred battle-hardened vikings. On the other is the local Saxon Earl, his fifty armed retainers, and an assortment of two hundered or so irregular fighters brought in from the surrounding countryside to defend it from the raiders.

The Earl's retainers, while fewer in number, are better armed and better trained than their viking counter-parts. If they can hold the spit of sand, the vikings won't be able to bring their superior force to bear, kill the Earl and his men, and raid the countryside. The vikings, on the other hand, can't simply wait out the locals, lest the inevitable reinforcements arrive and cut them off from their ships. Knowing this, that spit of sand becomes a piece of real estate upon which a larger story, and the fate of many, turns.

In short, fights are more interesting when their outcomes have, or contribute to, larger consequences. And this is at the center of a narrative gap that divides lowsec and nullsec.

Small gang PvP as commonly practiced in lowsec operates at a much faster pace than the large fleet combat that drives the nullsec sovereignty wars. The mechanics of lowsec allow a small gang to assemble, encounter and engage targets, and then return home to refit and either go out on another sortie or call it a night in fairly short order. Gate camps notwithstanding, it's a quick-action format and very attractive for those players who are in the game for the pre-fight adrenaline spikes and the apre-fight shakes that follow.

However, one characteristic of this style of play is the absence of a larger narrative. Like the fighters on the spit of sand viewed in isolation, there is nothing but the fight itself. One lowsec resident recently wrote that, among lowsec's PvP community, "you aren't judged on where you live, you are judged on what you kill". Which is to say that, for a majority of that community, there is no overarching strategic goal to combat. It is both means and end in and of itself. Nothing is at stake for the combatants except for cost of the loser' ships and bragging rights once the fight is over. It is battle without substantive risk or consequence.

The goings on in nullsec, on the other hand, are driven by events and characters that wouldn't be out of place in an Homeric epic. They feature a cast of characters that range from heroic to tragic to venal. On each clash of arm and each act of heroism or treachery hangs the ultimate fate of fortunes and empires. The disbanding of Band of Brothers, the betrayal of Paxton Alliance, the Fall of Atlas Alliance and the return of Against All Authorities are each a story with epic sweep driven by fallout from the actions and inactions of thousands of capsuleers.

And this, I believe, is why nullsec gets so much more love in the Eve zeitgeist than does lowsec.

There are a lot of lowsec blogs out there. I read a few regularly and drop in now and again on some of the others. Most of them involve descriptions of good fights recently had (or bemoan the absence thereof) and/or focus on tactics and fits for small gang PvP. All valuable in their own right for the aficionado of small gang PvP.

The technical blogs I find useful and interesting. The fight recaps were interesting for, oh, about the first hundred. After that it all became a bit repetitious; sort of like listening to crazy uncle Billy, who corners me after every Thanksgiving dinner and holds forth in excruciating detail about his adventures on the golf course, like the time he broke par at Saint Andrews using nothing but a mashie niblick.

Human beings are suckers for a good story. One of Eve's selling points is a player's ability not only to hear a good science fiction yarn, but to participate in one; to be immersed in it as a character capable of driving events in the larger tale, even as it is being told. I am certain lowsec is rife with stories and characters that the Eve community and gaming fans at large would find riveting. They may not involve the clash of great fleets or the fall of empires, but are compelling and engaging in their own right. However, they pass quietly through the deep and go largely untold.

Someone once suggested that Fiddler's Edge was biased in favor of nullsec. I hold that it is biased in favor of good stories, of which more are told in nullsec than in lowsec. Closing that narrative gap is the challenge I throw out to my friends in the lowsec blogging community. Doing so involves a commitment to nothing more than engaging in one of the most primal of human activities.

Tell us a story.

Drums In the Deep

2011-11-09T15:45:00.000-08:00

While my research librarian and I wipe away dust and cobwebs and air out the offices at Fiddler's Edge, I've been thinking about recent events in New Eden. Or, to be more precise, I've been thinking about the absence of events in New Eden.

Yes, I know. Much has gone on within CCP.

It turns out the Hosne Mubarek school of customer relations is not a strong business model. Even a loyal customer will take his or her business elsewhere if one takes said loyalty for granted; doubly so if one is outright rude and condescending in the process. Mind you, the genetic material that makes for good customer relations managers likely runs a bit thin amongst a people whose ancestors had names like "Killer Hrap", "Sigvat the Red" and "Arni the Bitter", and whose most famous literary figure was axed to death in his home. Nevertheless, even in Reykjavik the maxim of catching more flies with honey than with vinegar holds true.

The near collapse of Hilmar's business plan and the resulting emphasis on Ships in Space for the Winter Expansion of Eve Online has a been good fodder for Eve bloggers and podcasters, and a good thing; there's been precious little action of any consequence to write about in New Eden itself.

The nullsec board is set in pretty much the same configuration as at midSummer. The DRF and their vassals rest easily 'pon their starry beds, occupying the better part of nullsec and renting it out at a tidy profit. The only change evident from that quarter is the transition of the DRF vassals from NAP to NIP. Delve is still standing in as PvP central. Against All Authorities (-A-) is still in Catch. All in all, the only thing notable seems to be the absence of anything notable.

Mind, I'm keeping an eye on CVA.

Way back in the Spring, Curatoris Veritatis Alliance's then leader Aralis, having failed time and again to reestablish CVA in Providence, left the alliance and the game. The game mechanics, he stated in his farewell address, were the cause of his failure.

CCP have made it clear they have no intention of fixing Dominion and there is thus no hope that what I wanted to do can ever be done. I don’t mind a hard road, I’ve been struggling to keep things going and hope alive since Dominion hit. Trying to do something impossible is just stupid and I don’t wish to stray from the path in Eve and CCP have made it painfully obvious they don’t intend to fix Dominion.

Since his departure CVA has returned to Providence and managed to hold onto the space they picked up with the departure of Northern Coalition[DOT] and Ev0ke for points North. Leo D'Green was named head of CVA at the time of Aralis' departure. Indications are that D'Green reversed Aralis' practice of burning bridges with allies and began building a few instead. I'll have to look into whether D'Green is still at the CVA helm. If so he deserves credit for steadying that Alliance and guiding them back from exile in Catch and lowsec.

The fact that White Noise and NC[DOT] still hold key Providence gateway systems to Catch and Kari, and that CVA is engaged in a Sov fight with the much smaller Care Factor (CF) suggests CVA is still in recovery mode and adapting to the present reality of supercapital dominated warfare. However, the decision of many nullsec alliances to wait for the Winter Supercapital Nerf before engaging in serious sov actions has likely given CVA much needed breathing room with which to rebuild both its combat capacity and it's list of allies. It's an ill wind that blows no one good.

Which brings us back to the Winter Expansion. Driven by a need to shore up their subscriber base, CCP seems willing to take a more aggressive hand at curbing the supercapital beast than was previously indicated. Many nullsec corporations and alliances, dispossessed by supercapital fleets and nursing grudges, have been waiting for changes that will make those ships somewhat less than the "I Win" button they are today. The announced changes may satisfy them and make nullsec's supercapital-oriented powers more cautious about calling in the supercapital blob. With that in mind, knives are being sharpened and plans formed.

The DRF, meanwhile, will not be idle. The rich regions they have parceled out amongst themselves and their allies generate vast incomes for those alliances. Even if their supercapital fleets are less potent after the Winter Expansion, their large stockpile of the ships mean they can deploy them with abandon and simply replace any losses. Further, those deep pockets will put the DRF at the front of the line, positioned to outbid all comers when the new t3 battlecruisers make their debut. And then there's out and out bribery. Enemies who can not be beaten or intimidated can be bought in whole or in part.

There is a sound of drums in the deep. War, like Winter, is coming.

About Fever Dream

2011-09-19T10:23:00.000-07:00

Scapa, for those unfamiliar with it, is a single malt scotch from a small Orkney Island distillery. It is not one of your rough, big-boned single malts. Oh my goodness, no.

It is all heather and honey. It comes at you, with gentle kisses and soft curves. 'More of me,' it whispers as you drink it. 'Have more of me. I would never hurt you.'

Scapa lies.

I'd been entertaining thoughts of doing another post along the lines of Vox Populi as a commentary on the CCP/CSM drama occupying the Eve blogosphere in early September. After my dalliance with lady Scapa, I passed by a copy of the Iliad lying out on my desk on my way to bed. And it occurred to me that the Iliad, one of humanity's oldest literary works, opens with a seminal moment in the history of rage-quitting. "Heh," thought I, blurrily. "Crazy Achaeans."

And I slipped below the wine-dark waves of sleep that night, muzzily pondering the parallels between Ilium and New Eden.

Old muse visited while I slept and woke me early. Really, painfully early; having conspired with lady Scapa to fill my head with thoughts of sharp-tined pitchforks and proud-eyed spymasters. I typed it out through the ragged morning lady Scapa had left behind. Cleaned the post up over coffee as the haze lifted, and then sent it out, hoping a few folk would get a laugh out of it.

Imagine my surprise.

In a single day Fever Dream garnered more hits than the cumulative hits for any single post at Fiddler's Edge. Since then it's continued to pull in readers, which is very gratifying. Writing something with 'legs' is always a pleasure in the blogopshere, where content tends to wander off into the never-never of the archives soon after it's released.

I was especially delighted with the number of readers who picked up on the Iliad reference right away. Eve players continue to show themselves to be a special breed of MMO gamer. For those who've never taken that story for a turn around the block, I recommend the Fagles translation which is eminently readable and easy to find.

Thanks to all of you who enjoyed the Fever Dream, to those who passed it on, and those who left kind words behind.

(PS - For those waiting on the promised piece about low/null security space, it's on the front burner.)

Making Low Sec Matter

2011-09-11T12:12:00.000-07:00

When a band of barbarians shows up on your doorstep, it's often because they've been displaced by another band of barbarians who showed up on their doorstep. The Goths, after all, didn't cross the Rhine-Danube line in 376 simply because it was too nice a day to stay indoors .

-"Lowsec", Fiddler's Edge, January 15 2011

In response to Winter is Coming, Rixx Javix, lowsec anarchist and sometime pirate, invited displaced nullsec residents to migrate to low sec space. "Not only is it more fun," he wrote, "But we don't shoot structures - only people". Rixx and a few others have held forth otherwise and elsewhere on what a wonderful world it would be if only the alliances of nullsec would come to lowsec, where real PvP is practiced. There, unprotected by their cynojammers and warp disruption fields, they would provide Rixx and the rest of the lowsec pirates and rapscallions a target rich environment filled with PvP opportunities.

It seems one must be careful what one wishes.

With free nullsec capitulating to the Drone Russians Forces (DRF), a number of medium to large nullsec alliances and corporations players have been pushed out of their nullsec holdings. In some cases, as with Northern Coalition members driven from Vale of the Silent and Geminate, these entities moved from Northern to Southern nullsec, only to be displaced a second time when DRF and their vassals moved South to complete their run of the nullsec table. Unable to withstand the assault of the heavily bankrolled DRF supercapital blobs, ever more nullsec refugees have been seeking safe haven in which to draw breath until the much hoped for Winter Supercapital Nerf ® is deployed.

Thus, safe harbor for such refugees is at a premium. NPC nullsec, immune from being claimed by player alliances, was the safe harbor of choice for -AAA- when they were rolled over by White Noise, The Initiative and Pandemic Legion last Fall. Likewise, Pandemic Legion (PL) sought temporary refuge in NPC nullsec early last Spring, after the Northern Coalition showed PL at the Saint Patrick's Day Massacre that they had developed the tactical wherewithal needed to defeat PL supercapital fleets.

However, nullsec has never before seen so many organizations and players displaced at one time; NPC space will simply not contain all the refugees. As the DRF & Co expand their holdings, competition for the scraps of nullsec space not yet under siege increases, and the overflow is pushed elsewhere.

Elsewhere, as in nullsec-adjacent low sec space.

We've seen this before, of course. As I wrote last January in Lowsec, BOB retreated to lowsec after that storied alliance was disbanded and run out of nullsec by their many enemies. There they appropriated high-value lowsec properties, recovered, rearmed, and reorganized themselves as IT Alliance before re-entering nullsec. Though much diminished in their retreat from nullsec, the BOB refugees were veteran nullsec PvPers. Their ships and fleets more than a match in terms of size, composition and discipline for the lowsec entities they encountered during their exile.

One again lowsec alliances have nullsec entities arriving on their doorsteps. Even those denizens of lowsec with prior nullsec experience are taken somewhat aback by the sudden presence of supercap fleets they've begin to encounter. Lowsec is well acquainted with capital ship combat and the odd ratting carrier is regarded as high-value prey by lowsec pirates and griefers. Faction warfare militia regularly engage in capital ship combat, and even the odd Titan or Supercarrier encounter is not unusual.

However, Supercapital fleets are another matter. Immensely powerful, immune to ECM and unstoppable except by Heavy Interdictor (a ship class in short supply among lowsec combat groups due to its relative lack of utility there), a small fleet of ten or so supercapitals can drop on most lowsec capital/battleship fleets with relative impunity. There is limited chance (for now) that the lowsec alliances will have hictors and larger supercap fleet on standby for a counter-drop. Life in lowsec is markedly less fun when any Drake or Navy Raven caught ratting a lowsec anomaly might cyno in a supercapital fleet on top of the jolly gang of pirates that tackle it.

At the moment, the most evident example of this phenomenon is Pandemic Legion cooling their heels in Amamake. While not driven from nullsec per se, PL seems to have realized that, with no contract in hand binding them to the DRF, and the Goons having made common cause with PL's former employers, they are high on the gank list once said employers get bored with chasing -AAA- and look around for their next victim. With all of their enemies laid low or in hiding, the DRF as little use for PL and will likely seek to ensure the weapon they have employed regularly and to good effect isn't available to DRF's growing list of enemies. Thus PL seems to have quit nullsec in good order to wait outside the DRF field of vision for what changes to the strategic landscape the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® may bring.

In the meantime, the lowsec residents have largely adopted a strategy of either steering clear of the PL forces altogether, or venturing in to pick off the odd PL straggler. The faction warfare teams in particular seem inclined to take the odd potshot at the unwary PL ship. Recently a PL Carrier was jumped by an Amarr faction Stealth Bomber fleet. The degree of drama that accompanied the take-down, along with the celebratory chest beating that followed, speaks volumes about the degree to which the lowsec residents are over-matched by the new arrivals. While a critical loss for a lowsec player, mere capital ships have practically become a commodity item in nullsec; the loss of one barely attracting any notice at all.

The presence of PL in lowsec has, in turn, drawn other nullsec entities into the neighborhood as nullsec alliances, looking for some good fights with the legendary Legio Pandemica, drop in for visits. Lowsec players seem largely ignored in these incursions, unless they happen to get in the way or try to participate in the action.

Once the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® and associated nullsec sov changes have been put in place and assessed by the various parties, I expect most nullsec entities that bide time in lowsec will saddle up and head back into the sovereignty game. Their departure will be met with relief by some parties in lowsec who prefer the region as it is.

However, the wiser lowsec players will see the presence of Pandemic Legion and their nullsec peers as an opportunity; a teaching moment. As with any game, the best way to improve at PvP is to move out of your comfort zone, and play against one's betters. The presence of some excellent nullsec PvP talent in lowsec provides a rare chance for lowsec fleets to measure themselves against the big hats and up their level of play.

Expected changes to the sov rules will likely mean greater opportunities for incursions by lowsec fleets into nullsec. Likewise, they may make parts of lowsec of value to nullsec entities, resulting in nullsec alliances adding parts of lowsec space to their spheres of influence.

This could go a long way toward blurring the lines between nullsec and what I like to call "lower" lowsec.

Fever Dream

2011-09-09T04:11:00.000-07:00

Proof that Scapa and Stilton cheese are a bad before-bed snack

Rage!

Sing, Godess, the rage of Gianturco's son Mittani; who brought forth a sea of discontent to break against the rocky shoals of Reykjavik, and stirred the hearts of capsuleers to rebellion against the fair-haired masters of New Eden.

Sing of Mittani's coming unto the hall where Hilmar, astride his lofty throne, surveyed his realm with troubled brow.

"I'faith," quoth Hilmar, "What is this rabble gathered before my corporate gates? Who are these scabbed dogs, who creep their bellies 'pon the ground, yet seek to turn mine noble hand to do their churlish bidding? Why stand they thus, all armed with flaming brand and sharp-tined pitchfork?"

"They are thy customers," answered Mittani, lord of spies. "Unto thee and thine they pay a monthly tithe, in return for which they deem their satisfaction must needs be thine fondest desire."

"Wherefore, their discontent?" rumbled Hilmar "In what wise unsatisfied? Have I not bestowed upon them worlds and ships in space that they might strive mightily, one against the other? Do I not provide all manner of digital fashion-wear for their purchase? And yet still unsatisfied, you say?"

"Aye," said proud-eyed Mittani. "And vexed full sore, both by the misdeeds of your minions and your own sad neglect of their plight. Long have supercapital blobs driven honest capsuleers from their holdings while you dallied with first person shooters. Long have ships in space languished, falling ever farther from balance while your minions sought the bright gold of Microtransactions at your behest."

At this fair-haired Hilmar grew wroth, and smote the arm of his throne, saying:

"What doth these knaves think $14.95 a month buyeth them, the keys to the executive privy chamber? They canst not see the big picture. How shall I prosper from this venture lest there be Microtransactions? Whither else my looked for profit margins? Thou, Mittani, thou art mine elected herald to this unwashed mob. Thou shouldst have explained all to them ere now and counseled them to patience against the coming of a better day."

"I?" spoke the sly Mittani, a modest hand upon his breast. "Nay, storied son of Petur, thou dost misconstrue both my purpose and my place. I am not come to dismiss the host before you, for I have led them hither. Neither shall I quench the fire in their hearts for your pleasure, for I am its author."

"Cruel treachery then!" cried Hilmar. "Have I not played host to thee many times; brought thee across the sea's broad back to Reykjavik? Have I not feted thee with fine bacon and pretended to give ear to thine counsel, all at great expense? This is vile payment for favors past."

"Bacon eaten is bacon beyond the reach of regret," said wily Mittani. "Yet nay, no treachery here. For though I am bound by thy NDA, I am by this 'rabble' elected; to speak for them, not for thee. If I partook of thy bacon, 'twas done on their behalf."

"And yet it fattened none but thee," mused Hilmar. "Tell me in sooth, lord of Goons; who is thy true master in these matters twixt us; this mob of paltry tithers, or thine own self?

"Like unto a slate grey sea under a leaden sky, I cannot see the end of one and the beginning of the other," answered the master of metagame." The twain are as one. If you heed my words and see to their needs, thus my name shall grow. An' you not heed my words I shall speak loudly unto thee, and lo, even unto the media outlets until you relent and bend to my will. Then shall my name grow larger still."

"But how if I do not bend?" quoth Hilmar, his voice like thunder. "New Eden is mine, yea down to the its tiniest nanoship and humblest pubbie. Naught avails there but I decree it. The council of stellar managers manages naught but what I deem meet and proper. Vex me not lest I disband it; casting you and your troublesome ilk into the outer darkness!"

Wily Mittani answered Hilmar, all untroubled.

"Remember my repute among thy customer base. I have the ear of many; yea even my enemies listen to my counsel. So too the gaming magazines, who hunger ever for the content of discord, give me heed. Bend not, and I shall bring down 'pon you a great storm of rage-quitting. I shall tell stories to the media that will hearten your enemies and make your investors quail. Then shall the very stars of New Eden flicker and go dark, and with them all your ill-starred designs."

"Nay," quoth Hilmar. "If the unfaithful would rage-quit, let them do so. And let not the gates of New Eden strike them 'pon the ass ere they leave. Thus unvexed, I shall have Microtransactions and the storied wealth they bestow. Yea, even unto golden ammunition should I desire it. Then I shall no longer be hostage to those who tithe but a monthly pittance, yet seek to make themselves my master."

At this, Mittani did but smile and turn to leave.

"You have no power or desire to lay New Eden low," unbending Hilmar called after him. "And even didst thou, it is the stage 'pon which your own reputation struts. Turn off New Eden's lights and you likewise stand in darkness. Where, Mittani, would you go, New Eden having fallen?"

The Mittani paused, and turning unto Hilmar spoke thusly:

"There are other worlds than thine. If New Eden falls, I will lead my minions forth and play at World of Tanks."

"Tanks?" cried proud Hilmar, "Tanks?!"

The assembled host bowed and answered him as one.

"You are welcome, Hilmar."

A Pod Pilot Must Never Have Fleas

2011-08-30T13:43:00.000-07:00

This one's from a house of ill repute (of the best reputation) in Teonusude.

You may slurp at your soup
Wear pink ballet boots
Or fart just as loud as you please
But whatever you do
Bear in mind this taboo:
A pod pilot must never have fleas

Chorus:
For a pod’s not a place for your fleas
They bite and they transmit disease
Your ship yaws and pitches
When you get the itches
Pod pilots must never have fleas

You may juggle five cats
Or wear Twitter hats
You may sup on malodorous cheese
You can snigger and burble
Make loincloths of gerbils
But pod pilots must never have fleas

You may eat unripe fruit
Dressed in your birthday suit
You can pick at the scabs on your knees
Grow hair from your nose
‘Til it tickles your toes
But pod pilots must never have fleas

(Feel free to add a verse or two of your own)

Winter Is Coming

2011-08-26T15:06:00.000-07:00

The Winter Supercapital Nerf ®.

Throughout the Eve forums, blogosphere and news outlets, it's spoken of in reverent tones. One would think the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® was holy grail, the once and future king, and the ultimate talisman against evil all rolled up into one. The reasoning around it goes something like this:

1 ) The Drone Russians and their subject vassal alliances have used overwhelming supercapital superiority to take over most of nullsec

2 ) By taking over most of nullsec, the DRF & Vassals control both its revenue-generation capacity and the means of production for supercapital ships, both of which are the de facto prerequisites for sovereignty

3 ) Thus, barring suicide, the DRF & Vassals cannot be displaced, as any challenger to their domination of nullsec must have access to a stockpile of supercapitals comparable to that of the DRF & Vassals.

4 ) Any alliance wishing hold nullsec space does so at DRF & Vassal sufferance, lest they risk being curb-stomped by DRF & Vassals' supercapital blobs at any time the DRF and/or Vassals deem it appropriate/convenient to so curb-stomp

5) Once the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® is deployed, the DRF & Vassals' supercapital advantage will be much diminished. Supercapital blobs will no longer be the nullsec 'I Win' button. The DRF's cruel grip on nullsec will loosen. Puppies will gambol in the meadows, beer will be free, and men who play with cartoon spaceships will become like catnip to wildly attractive women.

OK, I made up the bits about the puppies, beer and women. And the catnip. But you get the idea.

In fact, there is so much expectation with regard to the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® that the last few entities capable of opposing DRF dominion over nullsec have given up the fight. Until Winter; when the Winter Supercapital Nerf ® will, so they say, reset the game board.

"Aye," say the whispers in the forums. "Then we'll have them."

Looking at everything CCP has actually said about a potential supercapital nerf, I'd say a little expectation management is in order, because they are presently way off the reality charts. Denial, as they say, is not a river in Egypt.

CCP Greyscale has already indicated a profound reluctance to lay a significant nerf on supercapitals. Chances are, all we will see is an adjustment of some of the numbers for these monsters as well as the ability of their pilots to either dock their supercapitals in station, or possibly use jump clones to board and disembark from them. A change in how and when fighterbombers can be used seems to be in the cards as well.

Very likely, current events in nullsec are being discussed at CCP and are of some concern. However, as one of the most high ticket items in New Eden, supercapitals are critical to Eve Online's ability to generate revenue. CCP want's these ships to continue as a "must have" item for nullsec.

Sorry about that. Hey, I'm only the messenger.

However, don't despair utterly. Not quite yet, anyway. I do suspect CCP Greyscale will look to other mechanics in order to somewhat level the nullsec playing field.

Changes to jump ships mechanics seem to be one place he sees as a sweet spot for achieving many of his design goals. I'd expect to see a dial back on jump ship range in order to make covering vast distances much more expensive, time consuming and dangerous. This, of course will impact jump freighters as well as combat capitals and supercapitals, but CCP Greyscale has already expressed his desire to nerf the jump freighter, so he's unlikely to see that as a design obstacle.

Greyscale has also talked about curbing the effectiveness of combat jump ships by adding a spool-up time for cyno jumps. Instead of the current timing (in which there's no lag between the time a cyno goes up and when the jumpships can drop into the target system) a spool-up timer would be required to elapse before the capital ship could make the jump. This would allow the defending fleet a greater opportunity to kill the cyno ship before having a blob of supercapitals dropped on their heads.

Now, if you look at CCP Greyscale's design goals whiteboard, you'll see an interesting item under Territory and Conquest. It's in the middle of the lower row, right in the middle of the flash reflection. See it? It says "Shoot People Not Structures". Reading the extended interpretation of this white board item we find the following:

Extensive empirical testing has shown that shooting at structures is in-and-of-itself boring, and even when it results in a good fight, it generally does so in spite of the structure-shooting mechanic rather than because of it. There are other ways to achieve the upsides of sitting in front of a stationary object with your weapons cycling for half an hour that don't make it indescribably tedious if the other side doesn't show up.

In other words, "If you want to keep it, you've got to defend it". This is a paradigm of which I heartily approve as it more effectively represents real life. Dominion began this change in that you have to actively defend certain limited set of strong points in order to hold onto systems under attack. However, the Dominion strong points are equally strong whether or not the defenders put up a fight.

With the advent of the supercapital blob, a defender has days before he has to show up and defend a system; a defense made near certain if you have a massive fleet of jump ships at your disposal. Even if the defender abandons his territories altogether, the invader must spend weeks reducing abandoned strong points.

Taken in isolation, these changes don't seem to offer much in the way of relief from the supercapital blob. However, taken together, they might be a potent antidote to the current status quo.

If undefended systems are easy to tip, and if defending supercapitals are harder to move, and require an extended cyno spool up to join a battle, and if they are a bit more vulnerable and less effective when they arrive, the "small alliance with a big supercap fleet" paradigm may fall apart. Why? Because of the Bruce Lee factor.

Bruce Lee could open up a huge can of martial arts whup ass on anybody, and I mean anybody (pre-mortum, of course). However, he could only open that can of whup ass on a few people at a time. Happily for Bruce, evil minions have a whole queuing protocol they use when attacking heroes. One must take one's turn in the evil minion game.

Likewise, supercapital blobs are exceedingly nasty. But they can only defend one system in the empire at a time. Under Dominion, they have a number of days to get around to defending a system, depending on the number of sovereignty defensive layers in place. And they can get there very quickly. However, if getting across New Eden suddenly takes longer, and the smelly barbarians all along your borders suddenly figure out that an empty castle is much like a castle waiting for a new owner, and once you arrive you announce your arrival with an extended cyno spool-up....

Well, let's say your supercapital blob is going to spend a LOT of time rushing about. They'll retake systems recently lost, only to lose those system again when the barbarians return. And the barbarians will return because your supercapital fleet will be riding off to rescue some other system. I call this the "Nibbled to Death By Ducks" paradigm.

Even Bruce Lee can be nibbled to death, given enough ducks with an bad attitude and a hunger for human flesh.

Now, of course you can spread your supercapital blob out over your vast empire; garrison your frontier and the vulnerable points your interior. Of course, all spead out like that, they're not a blob anymore, are they?

All of this assumes that any such changes, let alone all, will be introduced. Or that they'll be introduced any time soon. Meanwhile, it's almost September, and no clear decisions seem to have been reached. Time passes. The DRF advance continues, -A- and their allies retreat, Goonswarm has capitulated. Free nullsec fades.

Winter is coming.

Capitulation

2011-08-24T04:38:00.000-07:00

If you want a vampire dead, you have to drive a stake through its heart.
-Fiddler's Edge

Nobody ever said Ivan was dumb.
-Tom Clancy Red Storm Rising

Never assume your enemies can't learn from past mistakes.

Nearly a year ago, Against All Authorities (-A-) played a clever game of rope a dope with the combined forces of White Noise, Pandemic Legion, IT Alliance, The Initiative, Circle of Two and Dead Terrorists (CIF, or Combined Invasion Force). It was a game born of desperation, but one that was well played all the same.

Pardon me while I recap:

Last September the CIF invaded -A-'s nullsec holdings. Realizing early in the proceedings that they were not a match for the CIF invaders at their gates, -A- leadership chose to run a rear-guard action against the invaders, while retreating the bulk of their fighting strength to NPC nullsec. Thus, rather than spending that strength in a pitched war against overwhelming odds (as had the recently defunct Atlas Alliance) -A- preserved it to fight another day.

Now, at the time this was an exceedingly risky strategy. Ordering your members to turn tail and run and then watch while the enemy occupies and divides up your homelands is not normally a winning tactic in New Eden. Atlas Alliance, having accepted humiliating surrender terms from the Drone Russians not a month before, had dissipated like a puff of smoke on a windy day as its players and corporations quit the alliance in either despair or disgust. It was assumed by all and sundry that -A- would likewise failscade in short order.

In fact, the widely held assumption that -A- would soon follow Atlas Alliance into the mists of Eve history likely saved the alliance.

The CIF invaders, assuming -A- was as good as dead, did not pursue them into NPC space. They set about dividing up their newly won space and cut loose Pandemic Legion. While White Noise stood pat with its territorial gains and ceased operations against -A-, The Initiative and its vassals Circle of Two and Dead Terrorists continued operations against Stain Empire with a much reduced invasion force. As far as the CIF invaders were concerned, -A- was out of the game and it was Miller time.

As I documented in a running series of posts (The Undead , AZN-D2, Resurgence , The Return of -A-, and The Initiative At Bay), the publishing of -A-'s demise was just a bit premature. -A- waited for their moment and then struck back. Supported by Stain, Red Overlord and a handful of allies, they took back Catch and later reclaimed Teneferis during the Drone Russians conquest of Northern Coalition space.

Now, the trouble with risky but successful strategies is that, once executed, they become part of the standard playbook. Everyone assumes you can pull that rabbit out of the hat again at will.

A year later another invasion of -A- space in in progress. This time the invaders are the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassals, who currently own most of nullsec and are in the process of taking over the rest. Presently the Southern Russians (led by -A-) and Deklein Coalition (led by Goonswarm) are the only remaining players on the board with any hope of organizing the free alliances of nullsec into a coherent defense against the Drone Russians' plans for dominion over nullsec.

Once again, -A- is outmatched, this time by the DRF's supercapital blob and well-padded bank accounts. With Goonswarm apparently having announced that Deklein will not ride to -A-'s rescue, the latter cannot look for relief from any corner. Thus, -A- reaches into the play book and announces it will attempt a repeat performance of the Retreat to NPC Space.

This time, however, the enemy will not be so blithe to let them be. Knowing the history of this tactic, the DRF will not let -A- use NPC space as safe harbor as The Initiative did last time. Unless DRF discipline breaks down, expect the DRF and their vassals to follow -A- into NPC space and undertake a griefing campaign against them there. Despite the safe harbor afforded by NPC stations, a grinding campaign in which -A- pilots can hardly undock without being swarmed and cap-dropped would take a monstrous toll on morale.

In short, the DRF will not be content to let the vampire lie in it's coffin. Having learned form the mistakes of others, they'll try to put a stake through -A-'s heart.

Meanwhile, up in the North, GoonSwarm is doing a lovely impression of Vichy France.

The Goon PR department went into full bloviate mode in the last week or two, making much of past slights and grudges between -A- and GoonSwarm. This was done in order to justify their leadership's decision to stand down and take no action down in the war between the DRF/Vassal coalition and the rest of free nullsec.

Mittens and company appear to have made a separate peace with the Drone Russians. My guess is that the deal struck was that the Goons don't go South to defend -A- space, and in return they'll be allowed to exist in nullsec as a source of good fights for the Drone Russians and friends. It wouldn't surprise me if the deal was sweetened by a large donation to key players from DRF's accounts, as the latter tends to sweeten their threats with large piles of the Iskis.

It makes capitulation go down a lot easier.

Some players are making much of the rumored "Winter Supercap Nerf" and are assuming this will level the playing field against the DRF. "Winter is coming," is the watch-phrase for what remains of free nullsec. However, from what I've heard the supercapital nerf will be nominal, and unlikely to do much to offset the vast supercap and fundraising advantages enjoyed by the DRF and their vassals. But desperate folk find comfort where they can.

A more likely source of relief will be a little talked about change in sov mechanics. More on that next time.

The House of Dreams

2011-08-19T04:57:00.000-07:00

I've been looking at the recent Nullsec Development: Design Goals devblogs by CCP Greyscale. I read it as a vision statement for nullsec; a statement of how nullsec would work if the kids at CCP could have it all.

The response from the player community has been reasonably positive. Unfettered by reality, CCP can offer up a nullsec vision that is quite appealing to a broad cross section of capsuleers.

Goals are like that.

My personal design goals are to trade off twenty pounds of fat for ten pounds of muscle, get a PhD in string theory done in two years, run a marathon in under two and a half hours, write the Great American Novel, have wild sex with Anne Hathaway, end world hunger, and live a robust life until they come up with a cure for death.

Like CCP's design goals for nullsec, all of these goals are laudable. Most of them are achievable. However some are less than realistic (sorry Anne). Some are mutually exclusive. Those goals that ignore my own limitations, are dependent on an improbable series of events, or ignore the likely behaviors of myself and others based on historical precedent are, shall we say, long shots.

Once we have laid out our design goals, the next step is to hold the vision up and look at it in the cold light of reality and decide which parts of it to pursue. That is CCP Greyscale's next task. He's given us the vision. That's the easy part. What part of that vision is he going to actively attempt to design and implement?

Visions are nice, but they are a house made of dream, where anything is possible. Before Greyscale gets out the lumber, hammer and nails, he'll have to pare the dream back to something that can actually be built, and hold together under actual conditions of use.

Capsuleer Song

2011-08-15T17:45:00.000-07:00

Heard this one at a dockside bar in Molden Heath:

Oh all you young spacers who dice with the deep
Come wake from your slumbers; arise from your sleep
There’s an empire to humble and a fortune to seek
Come follow me mates, to Etherium Reach

Chorus:
To Etherium Reach and the Wildlands beyond
Our ships fast and true and our crews brave and strong
Come form up your squadrons and gather your fleet
And we’ll fight the Drone Russians at Etherium Reach

Their fleets are so vast that they blot out the sky
But stand to your tackle and spit in their eye
We’ve axes to grind and some lessons to teach
And we’ll teach them right sharply, in Etherium Reach

Now fit up your ships and unlimber your guns
There’s space for the taking and worlds to be won
It’s ships to the line and once more to the breach
Come show them your worth at Etherium Reach

So all you young spacers who dice with the deep
Come wake from your slumbers; arise from your sleep
Free nullsec is calling; tell all that you meet
That we’ll make a new home in Etherium Reach

Fireships

2011-08-06T13:23:00.000-07:00

One item on my list of things to do while on vacation from Eve Online is to finish and submit a science fiction short story that's been sitting at the bottom of my desk drawer for some time.

The story has its genesis in a flash fiction (3,000 words or less) piece I wrote back in 2006. It was quick write, ninety minutes total from blank page to finished story. Flash fiction is nice that way; a good exercise for getting out the way of a story and letting it roll onto the page. At the time I thought that was that. Mission accomplished.

Funny how some characters won't leave you alone. While I was finished with the story, the story's narrator (who had no name at the time) wasn't finished with me. He has sat quietly in the intervening years, just beyond my field of vision, insisting I tell the rest of the tale.

And I think it's a story worth telling.

The structure of the story is well in hand. The original piece, called Fireships, (which you can read here if you're inclined) remains the opening scene for the larger story with only a few tweaks. The draft for the rest has been written and is in revision.

I'll let you know when it starts making the submission rounds and if it gets picked up by a publication.

Nuff said. Back to work.

God's Blog

2011-08-06T05:44:00.000-07:00

So I was reading The New Yorker the other day. (Hey, don't sneer. Just because I read Paris Review, doesn't mean I can't slum now and again. Besides, the cartoons make me laugh.) There's a humor bit this week called "God's Blog" in which blog commenters respond to a post from God asking for feedback on the recently completed creation of the heavens and earth.

One of the posters responds:

Not enough action. Needs more conflict. Maybe put in a whole bunch more people, limit the resources, and see if we can get some fights going.

Heh. Who knew CCP Greyscale ghostwrote for the New Yorker?

Interlude Quartus

2011-07-27T08:39:00.000-07:00

"Three months?" said Mindy, my new research librarian. "Who the hell goes fishing for three months?" She folded her arms and favored us with a glower.

Jenny put two more sticks of dynamite into the tackle box. "All work and no play makes Mord a dull boy." she proclaimed loftily. She took up her harris tweed fishing cap and settled it on her head at a jaunty angle. "Now," she said, "Where are the blasting caps?"

"Top draw of the office supplies cabinet," I said as I settled my fly rod into its case. "Next to the stamps and white-board markers."

I snapped the case shut and handed it to Mindy. "Here," I said. "More helpful; less harridan. Put this with the rest."

"Besides," said Jenny as she rummaged through the supplies cabinet. "You don't want your face to get stuck in that expression. It would turn the mailman to stone, which would be quite the tragedy; he reads Proust and has a nice ass. Oooh!" she cried, "Grenades!"

"Not for fishing," I pointed out.

Jenny pouted and continued rummaging.

Mindy huffed her displeasure, took the fishing rod case and set it by the door on top of a small stack of outdoor gear.

"It's just...unusual" she said, her face moving off disapproval and on to dismay. "I just started a week ago and suddenly you announce you're leaving the office until November on a fishing trip to Canada. Just like that. You barely know me and I'm supposed to run your think tank? And who fishes for three months...with explosives?"

I sat at my desk and began sorting through a box of fishing flies. "Well, there won't be a lot of thinking going on in the tank while I'm away," I said. "Mind the library, keep the utility bills up to date, take deliveries. Easy stuff."

"Found them!" Jenny called, brandishing a small black and yellow striped box.

"But what about your blog?" Mindy said. "What if something really important happens in Eve? What if a mob of pasty, underdeveloped geeks storms the office and demands to see you?"

"Hmmm," said Jenny as she helped herself to some primer cord. " Nope. Sorry. " She shook her head. "Eve and 'really important' in the same sentence just aren't connecting for me." She pointed at the office supply cabinet, "And didn't you hear me say you have grenades? They're a perfectly appropriate response to any mob of angry gamers."

"Are you sure you don't moonlight for CCP's public relations department?" I said to Jenny. She sniffed primly and snapped the tackle box shut.

"Seriously," I said to Mindy. "There are lots of good people keeping the capsuleers informed these days; bloggers and podcasters and news outlets. They'll hardly know I'm gone. And I'll look in on things now and again - just to keep a finger on the pulse."

Mindy looked unappeased. "What if someone has an important tip to deliver?" she asked.

"That's why I have my mordfiddle gmail account." I said. "I'll check it every couple of days. See? Easy."

She looked somewhat mollified, but still uneasy. "Should you be fishing with dynamite in Canada?"

"Hey," said Jenny, "You fish your way and I'll fish mine. Do I tell you how to relax?"

"But it's illegal," Mindy persisted. "You start setting that stuff off and you'll have a troop of Mounties all over you."

The corners of Jenny's mouth quirked up. "You say that like it's a bad thing."

Carebears Unbowed

2011-07-26T10:39:00.000-07:00

There's an old story about a man of faith who prays mightily to win the lottery. Year after year he prays with all his heart, yet he never, ever wins the lottery. One day, the man dies. In heaven, he approaches God and asks with some asperity why God refused to let him win the lottery despite his steadfast prayers.

God rolls his eyes and says "You never bought a ticket."

Over at Haberdashers Run Amok, Corelin was waiting for me to do a write up on the fate of the nullsec Carebear after the fall of NC. Alas, my psychic powers are a bit out of tune these days, so I failed to pick up on his expectations.

Sigh. My bad.

Happily, Corelin didn't sit around wallowing in disappointment. He bought a ticket. He stepped up to the plate and wrote his own post about the prospects for nullsec bears. Well done, Corelin.

Following up on his comments, I don't think the end of NC spelled disaster for nullsec bears. As Corelin points out, most of the bears who migrated to nullsec in 2010 are still in nullsec. As I've written elsewhere, they are a tougher breed of bear than their highsec cousins. Some have retreated to safer high and low security regions to await the outcomes of the DRF invasions, but those are in the minority.

Some nullsec bears have barely changed location since the NC fall, and rent or hold Sov in and about DRF territory. That's pretty quiet space these days, and quiet space is meat and potatoes to a mining or building bear. An opportunistic bear might see his way to a tidy living without having to move much of his stuff. New landlord? OK. Bears are nothing if not adaptable.

Other bears have moved on, either following their NC alliance or shifting over to another alliance heading in a more preferred direction. Some nullsec bears have become fair hands at PvP, and trade fours between building stuff and blowing stuff up. I know a number of bears who both build and pilot supercapitals. That, my friends, is one valuable breed of bear. No, they're not going anywhere.

Most folk who hold sov want a good set of bears on the payroll. The Dominion sov rules have done their work. Carebears are integrated into nullsec life and it's going to take a major rewrite of the sov rules to dislodge them. By all accounts, such changes as are on the board for nullsec will not weaken the nullsec bear's position. Quite the contrary.

After all, we're not a bunch of fragile PvP divas. We're tough.

Bear tough.

The Gathering Storm

2011-07-25T15:12:00.000-07:00

There is a growing realization in New Eden that the Drone Russian Forces (DRF), in combination with their vassal alliances, primarily Raiden[DOT], Ev0ke, Northern Coalition[DOT], Pandemic Legion and a cast of smaller players and hangers on, comprise a clear and present danger to the free alliances of nullsec.

[Fiddler's Note: Yes, PL are vassals now. PL may protest that they're their own masters and can run wild at any moment. However, a wolf may only remain in the master's kennel, wear the master's collar and bark at the master's command for so long before it becomes the master's dog. PL may be a dangerous beast, to be handled by their master with caution, but they are domesticated all the same, and there is no doubt who holds PL's leash.]

Some residents of free nullsec had hoped that the DRF and company, having taken over of the Northern Coalition's former holdings, would be content with those rich territories; that the DRF might rest easily on their spoils of war and leave the rest of nullsec to go their own way. Alas, one can do anything with bayonets except sit on them. Like unto the heads of Europe who discovered that ceding Czechoslovakia to Germany in 1938 did nothing to end the latter's territorial ambitions, the free alliances are awakening to the knowledge that the DRF's appetite for ever more space will not be sated.

Seems there's never enough leibensraum.

The principal DRF vassals have already launched an invasion of Goonswarm's home territories and had their first incursion turned back. A bit over a week ago the Goons executed a counterattack against the invaders' staging areas in VFK-IV. Repeating a tactic used to good effect against IT Alliance last January, the Goon's and their allies caught the invaders off guard and trapped the bulk of the invasion fleet in "rapecages", bubbling the station and POS locations to prevent warp outs and camping them heavily. Thus hamstrung, the DRF Vassals were unable to respond as the Deklein Coalition forces rolled back the invaders' earlier gains.

However, the DRF and their vassals are not the hollow man that IT Alliance was back at the beginning of the year. While the DRF minions were rocked on their heels, it would be wishful thinking to assume they are going to rattle off the rails on the strength of one set-back. If the Goons are going to hold their territory, they're going to have to show they can pull many more rabbits out of the hat while hanging in a grinding sovereignty fight that could last months.

[Fiddler's Note: This weekend Pandemic Legion coordinated a suicide subcapital attack on VFK-IV's cynojammer with a mass login of their trapped superscapital ships. The PL supers were able to jump from the system , taking down a Deklein Coalition super on their way out the door. Yeah. This fight isn't over.]

Meanwhile White Noise announced its intention to invade Against All Authorities (-A-) and other Southern Russian Coalition territories. In fact, White Noise went so far as to make an appointment, telling -A- that the invasion would begin on Sunday the 24th. White Noise also let it be known that they would invade Catch from the adjacent Providence region; an odd point of entry given that region's location in relation to the White Noise home regions.

As per schedule, White Noise supported by Northern Coalition[DOT] attempted to take T-RPFU in Providence; one of the gateway systems to -A-'s home region of Catch. The system holder of record, Curatoris Veritatis alliance (CVA), received most of their current Providence holdings in a peaceful hand-off from Northern Coalition[DOT]. However, either CVA was unwilling to cooperate with the invasion, or their cooperation was not sought. CVA has been fighting alongside -A-, Cascade Imminent, Nulli Secunda and Atlas[DOT] against the DRF fleets in a see-saw battle for control of the system.

Now, the fact that White Noise was broadcasting invasion plans that didn't make a great deal of sense should have been a tip-off to the lads at -A-. There was very obviously a big ol' tarp off in the bushes somewhere close by, lying in wait. And sure enough, today the tarp made itself known.

Not long after the T-RPFU dust up was losing steam, a second invasion force, headed by Red Alliance with support from Bloodbound and Legion of Death, rolled into the Teneferis gateway system of 46DP-O. Along with En Garde, Red[DOT]Overlord and Stain, -A- is making a stand at that side of their territories as well. However the larger DRF plan is becoming clear: -A- is being forced into a two front war, caught (so far) between hammer and anvil in the South, while Pandemic Legion, Raiden[DOT] and Ev0ke at least pin the Deklein coalition down in the North if they're not able to overrun the Goons outright.

This is how it begins. Maybe this is how it ends. That's the sandbox for you; we get to choose. If the Goons or the Southern Russians fall, so does free nullsec. The free alliances of nullsec have a choice to make.

They must, as the saying goes, stand together or hang separately.

The Wealth of Nullsec

2011-07-20T07:02:00.000-07:00

So here's CCP's nullsec mission statement (for now) as I understand it:

Populate nullsec with lots and lots of small to middling-sized alliances that will spend their time happily blowing each other to smithereens.

Yes, I know; getting capsuleers to spend their hard earned real money on micro transactions (RM2MT) is mission critical for CCP in its own way. But for simplicity sake let's keep the discussion to ships in space game-play. In that sense, the common direction I'm hearing from folk like CCP Greyscale is smaller coalitions, smaller fleets, moar PvP.

Now, I say that's the mission statement "for now" because the mission statement for nullsec tends to drift a bit over time. With Tyrannis, the goal was to shake up nullsec and bring in new players - builders and makers as well as PvPers. Then, back in December, it was announced to the CSM that PvP in nullsec was dropping off; an assertion apparently based on data covering a three month period. The supporting data/numbers were never released and CCP hasn't been forthcoming as to whether that trend continued beyond that initial three-month window. CCP's conclusions and underpinning data went unquestioned by the CSM. Mind, chances are it wouldn't have mattered if the CSM had raised questions.

Bottom line, the designers weren't liking the unexpected outcomes they'd created while chasing the last mission statement and decided on a new nullsec direction.

Of course, the overall direction CCP's designers are trying to take game-play can get confusing, because they tend to talk in more in terms of the means than the end. The goal - making nullsec home to small alliances rather than grand coalitions - tends to get lost as the designers hyper-focus on their preferred means rather than the end goal. If fact, the means seem to become ends in their own right.

For example, CCP Greyscale tends believes more PvP can be had by nerfing Jump Freighters and consolidating desirable nullsec resources into islands of wealth. His reasoning is that this will motivate more PvP as players fight over those resources. And PvP does happen. However, possession of these resources provides such a sovereignty warfare advantage, that only massive coalitions already in possession of some of these islands of wealth, have the wherewithal to dispossess another alliance or coalition of them. As a result, nullsec wealth is becoming consolidated into fewer and fewer hands. Thus the entry costs to taking and holding sov in nullsec, rather than getting lower and within reach of a small to middling alliance, have become higher than ever.

Then there is the professionalization of nullsec. Access to vast in-game wealth has allowed a subset of the nullsec player community to dedicate themselves to the game full time, leaving the recreational players at a profound disadvantage. Which allows the professional player to acquire even more nullsec territory and the associated wealth. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Now there's nothing wrong with the professional/subsidized Eve player. It's not against the EULA and many players might envy the ability to spend one's day playing internet spaceships (unless it's being played at gunpoint in a Chinese prison). However, if the consolidation of vast amounts of in-game wealth in nullsec is being used to generate real world income in order to fund professional play, we have a problem.

Of course, the trouble with RMT is that it's hard to prove, and the penalties for getting caught are too weak to serve as a disincentive to the practice. It's pretty much accepted as a fact of life. Nothing for it. Life as usual. These aren't the droids we're looking for. Move along.

So consider this solution: Take away the wealth.

Yes, I know. Those of you sitting on major pipelines of rent, mineral, moon-goo or ratting income streams are probably clutching your chests right now and hyperventilating. Take it easy. Breathe in. Breath out. Calm yourselves. Tranquillo.

The problem with nullsec is the large-bore isk faucets to be found there. Even limiting the number of these isk faucets as was done in the anomalies nerf doesn't solve the problem - it only magnifies the advantages to those who possess the big isk faucets. They simply rain too much money down upon those below.

Suppose however, just suppose, that every nullsec region was as resource poor as Providence. No Sanctum anomalies. No Technetium moons. Wealth to be had, of course, but diffused wealth that doesn't create disincentives to every activity but ratting, CTAs and building supercapitals

"But Mord," you say, "If you turn off the big isk faucets, how will my alliance fund a replacement if I lose my supercapital?"

Exactly.

"But Mord," you cry, "If you turn off the big isk faucets, how will I justify the high rents I charge my nullsec tenants?"

Precisely.

"But Mord," you wail, "If you turn off the big isk faucets, I'll lose my RMT income stream."

Just so.

Consider Delve for a moment. There's not a lot of isk being made in Delve these days, and yet there's a lot of PvP going on there. Are they fighting over the resources? Not so far as I can discern. They are fighting for a place in the sun, a constellation or a region to call their own. They are fighting because Delve has become the go-to place for welter-weight PvP. They are fighting for the joy of it.

They're fighting because it's fun.

If CCP turns off the big isk faucets in nullsec, nullsec will not become a ghost town. Quite the contrary. I think it will be a much more vital place. I think the population will spread out more, the coalitions will become smaller and the alliances more independent and self-contained. Supercapital blobs and the ultra-wealthy alliances and coalitions that fund them will wither and largely disappear, having lost the means that sustains them. Eve players will be free to simply play the game, to carve out a small place of their own in nullsec, build their civilizations and feud with the neighbors.

The isk faucets in nullsec are far too large. They fund the organizations and enable the behaviors that are choking the life and the fun out of nullsec play.

Shut them down.

Whistling in the Dark

2011-07-18T04:04:00.000-07:00

As most of you will be aware, the Drone Russian vassal alliances of Evoke, Northern Coalition[DOT], and Raiden alliances, along with some elements of Pandemic Legion have initiated the invasion of Deklein region, home ground to Goonswarm. The Mittani is calling in favors to bring reinforcements to bear. Heavily outnumbered in terms of supercapitals, the Goons are relying on cynojammers protected by overwhelming numbers in their subcapital fleet in order to hold their territory.

What could be the last stand of the Goons has begun

Meanwhile, the Mostly Harmless Alliance, caught between the hammer and anvil of external attacks by the Drone Russian vassal coalition and conflict within its own leadership has finally convulsed and given up the ghost.

In the South, the Drone Russians (DRF) have taken back the Detroid region and, depending on how matters develop in the North, are poised to initiate operations against the Southern Russain Coalition. If things stall for their vassals in the North, the DRF might hold back their Southward strike in order to support the Deklein invasion. Otherwise, with matters settling down in their new territories, expect the DRF to open a front against the South, likely with support of the main body of Pandemic Legion, focusing initially on the Southern Russian Coalition (SRC) and their allies.

A number of the remaining free nullsec alliances, many with members weary of the sovereignty warfare grind after the DRF invasion of Northern Coalition space, occupy themselves with "real PvP" in and around Delve. Lacking the will and the wherewithal to fight a full blown sovereignty war, their hope appears to hang on indifference by the Drone Russians. By focusing their attentions on each other or the SRC, and presenting no threat to the DRF, they hope to escape Drone Russian attention in the event of a Southern invasion from that quarter.

Such hopes are an old song often sung. Its refrain echoes up and down the dusty halls of history.

We all know how it ends.

Interlude Tertius

2011-07-13T19:26:00.000-07:00

I was peering down at a set of seven large tiles, each very old and etched with worn characters, when the front door at Fiddler's Edge swung open.

"Hello Mord," said Jenny, my former research librarian.

The dress code over at the National Archive's Special Acquisitions unit must be fairly liberal. In place of her usual librarian-standard grey wool suit she wore form fitting glove-leather pants and a gunmetal gray t-shirt. Her jacket was so black it seemed to absorb light. Only the shoes were the same; expensive, red soled and wickedly heeled Louboutins.

"Nice outfit, Doctor Brown" I said, "But the shoulder holster spoils the drape of the jacket."

She sniffed. "Some accessories you just can't compromise on," she said. "The P229 is worth a wrinkle or two. I save the concealables for formal wear."

Jenny's SIG handgun fell under the heading of standard business attire at Special Acquisitions' offices. Think of them as the only covert ops unit made up entirely of librarians. Most of the things they acquire are special to the point of being dangerous. You won't find 'Acquisitions' on the National Archives' website or their budget, so don't bother looking. When ancient texts or artifacts of mysterious provenance pose a national or global threat, SA gets the call.

Hooey? Yeah, maybe. And maybe the Rosetta Stone didn't cause the Tunguska event.

Jenny crossed the room and looked down at the tiles I was working on.

"Ooh!" she said, "Ogham characters. Old Irish?"

"Archaic," I said. I turned in the chair and drew a cloth over the tiles. Jenny's mouth turned down in a moue of disappointment.

"Sorry," I said. "Private client."

She waved it off. "I know the rules," she said. "Just, being on the outside...." She shrugged and sighed. "Ah, you can't go home again."

I raised an eyebrow. "Oh?" I said. "Acquisitions getting boring for you so soon? Ready to come back?"

"God no," she snorted. "On what you pay? The money's better at SA and so is the action. Not to mention that the Eve Online geek quotient there is delightfully low."

She pulled a small volume bound in leather from her purse. "Actually this is the reason I stopped by. Sturlison wants you to have a look at this. We don't have anybody in-house who reads...."

She stopped mid-sentence and glared at my desk, her mouth turned to a hard line. "What," she said pointing, "is that?"

I looked down. "Oh, this?" I said picking up a slim, flat plaque. "It's my new iPad."

"I know what it is," she said through gritted teeth. "What's it doing in your office?"

"This is amazing," I said waving it at her. "I never knew so many archives had digitized their collections."

"Who. Gave. You. That."

"Look, you just flip back this little cover and...."

"No," she said. She snatched the tablet from my hand and looked from it to me with narrowed eyes. "This doesn't fit. This isn't you. You're completely analog. You think ball-point pens push the tech envelope. And suddenly you're leap-frogging three centuries of writing technology to this?" She set the tablet on the desk and tapped it with a well-manicured finger. "Who's been pushing you into the twenty-first century?"

As if on cue the door to the library opened and a tall, red-headed woman, her arms loaded up with books, pushed through the library door. She was tall and willowy, with blue eyes and elfin features. When she spoke her accent bespoke Nordic origins.

"Mord," she said, "I'm done scanning the reference books, but I need the combination for the climate control vault to do the rare manuscripts."

"Oh, the that's right," I said to Jenny,. "You haven't met Ella, my new research librarian Ella, this is...."

There was a sharp intake of breath from Jenny as she reached under her jacket for her SIG. As she did, I heard a tumble of books falling to the floor. I looked around and saw Ella had dropped them to pull a small caliber pistol which she brought to bear on Jenny.

They stood that way for a moment, guns pointed at each other, their faces drawn up in a rictus of hate and rage.

I blinked. "So," I said. "You've met."

"How could you hire this...this philistine?" Jenny growled.

Ella chuckled. "This philistine just spent a month reordering the wreck of a filing system you left behind. This is who I replaced? That explains much."

"Hah," said Jenny. "Still shopping for shoes in the Goodwill bin I see."

Ella's eyes narrowed and her finger tightened on the trigger. "Luudite!" she accused.

"Bit-head!" sneered Jenny.

"Harpy!"

"Geek!"

"Um, excuse me...." I interjected.

"Shut up!" they barked at me in unison.

"Well, well, well," Jenny chuckled, shaking her head grimly. "Erla Hilmarsdottir. You're a long way from Reykjavik."

Ella shrugged, "The business of cartoon spaceships is sans frontieres," she said.

"Wait a minute," I said to Jenny, "Are you telling me she's...."

"Yeah," nodded Jenny, "Erla here works for CCP."

I frowned. "But that's ridiculous. Why someone from CCP come all the way to DC to work at Fiddler's Edge?"

"Well," Jenny said, "Not for your charm or good looks. That's for sure."

"Or the pay," Added Erla. "You know, for an American, you are very cheap."

"Hey, there's a global recession going on," I said defensively.

"Pfft!" said Jenny, "You were stingy long before then. No, she was here for the only thing you have that CCP could possibly value."

"My unpublished insights into the politics and economy of New Eden?"

"God, no!" Jenny rolled her eyes. "No Mord, not your stupid spaceship bloggy thing; your rare manuscript collection."

I snorted. "What possible use are ancient manuscripts to people who make digital universes? I mean, they're physical books most people can't read. Even if she could sneak them out she could only sell them as vanity items and...and...oh." I stammered to a halt. "Oh my."

"See?" Jenny smiled at Erla, "He can be taught."

"She didn't want to steal the physical books," I said slowly. "She wanted to scan them; make detailed digital avatars."

"So she could sell virtual copies of them on the Eve Micro-Transaction market. Isn't that so, red?"

"Did you think we were going to make make our revenue quotas selling monocles and pink spaceships?" Erla sneered. "Without a market for golden ammunition and status upgrades, MT revenue projections for Eve are dismally off their targets."

"But my manuscripts...."

"Have the advantage of being both rare and nerd-chic," she laughed. "Exclusivity is the new tactic. No one will pay twenty dollars for a monocle if anyone can buy one. But," she lowered her voice dramatically, "What if there were only five monocles for sale in all New Eden? Suddenly an accessory that makes you look like an idiot is a must-have vanity item. We'll be able to name our price."

"It'll never work," I growled at Erla. "Capsuleers play Eve for action. For adventure.They're not going to spend real money for cartoons of books, clothes and station window treatments, no matter how rare. They're not idiots, after all."

Jenny raised her eyebrows at me.

"OK," I said. "Most of them aren't idiots. You'll never make those revenue projections."

Erla smiled evilly and began backing toward the door. "The Mittani wristwatch is already in prototype," she said. "As are the Mona Lisa, the Phreeze bobble-head, the Crown Jewels of England and the Kirith Kodachi snow globe."

Jenny kept the SIG trained on Erla as she pulled open the door to Fiddler's Edge.

"There are many rare items in the world," Erla said, "If not your rare manuscripts, them perhaps Einstein's brain or a first folio works of Shakespeare. There are many of your friends who would pay dearly for exclusive rights to display such things in their quarters. Trust me when I say our revenue targets are well in hand."

Erla stepped through the doorway. "Soon, all the capuleers will be so busy chasing rare vanity items, they will forget they ever objected to golden ammunition. They will beg us to sell it to them. Farewell for now, Mord Fiddle."

"Catch you later," Jenny promised.

"I think not," Erla smiled.

The heavy oak door closed, and she was gone.

Jenny looked at me reproachfully.

"I suppose this means I don't get to keep the iPad," I said.

Leading Indicators

2011-07-06T09:40:00.000-07:00

To a certain extent, all the rage over micro-transactions and melting video cards has played well for the Drone Russian Forces. While the rest of New Eden watched in slack-jawed fascination as CCP's public relations department reenacted the Hindenburg disaster, the Drone Russians went quietly about consolidating their holds on territorial gains from the Northern Coalition wars.

Having added former Northern Coalition territory to their already swollen real estate portfolio, the various members of the Drone Russian Forces seem to be taking somewhat different courses in exploiting their new holdings.

Legion of Death alone possesses 311 nullsec systems; 216 of them by way of Shadow of Death, Legion's renter alliance. As of this writing Shadow of Death's member count hovers at around 6,500, an uptick of about a thousand members since the beginning of June. Meanwhile the Legion of Death alliance proper has increased its membership only slightly, indicating a desire on the part of their leadership to remain lean and avoid alliance-bloat, despite the broad swath of territory they now have to defend.

White Noise, on the other hand, appears to be taking the opposite approach. Their White Angels renter alliance has slumped from roughly 1,700 members in mid-May to about 580 members in control of only 10 systems, most of them in Wicked Creek.

The roll-back of the White Angels renter alliance began when Against All Authorities reclaimed Teneferis, a region White Noise had seeded with renters. White Noise seems to have made no attempts to relocate those renters or replace their numbers. Even as the White Noise star has risen, the population of their renter alliance has continued to fall off, with most of its membership moving to the other DRF renter alliances Shadow of Death, Red Citizens and Solar Wing.

Note too, the difference in the territorial footprint of these two DRF alliances. Whereas Legion of Death has stations scattered across eight regions, White Noise appears to have traded off space in order to consolidate their holdings primarily in two regions: Branch and Vale of the Silent. While Vale is a patchwork of DRF and vassal alliances, Branch appears to be largely White Noise's show, shared only with Mostly Harmless who occupy a small cluster of systems. presumably at White Noise's behest.

The population changes in the two alliances, accompanied by their geographic differences, suggest two alliances pursuing opposite strategies in terms of occupying and exploiting their nullsec space.

Legion of Death appears to be following an approach very much in line with the the current Dominion Sov/Supercapital paradigm. They have undertaken to defend a large and far-flung territory using a lean, highly mobile force based on a strong supercapital fleet. Their territory is largely occupied by renter and vassal alliances who provide Legion of Death with a vast income flow which is, in turn, used to purchase the supercapitals and the other wherewithal needed to deliver an overwhelming advantage when defending or expanding their space.

White Noise, on the other hand, may be anticipating an end to the Dominion Sov/Supercapital paradigm. They are adopting a territorial footprint that allows them a reasonably compact area of space to defend, and a larger body of PvP forces with which to defend it. This would make sense if they are anticipating a reduction in the range and mobility of supercapital ships and jump ships in general. Such a change would likely leave an alliance with diffused holdings unable to respond quickly or effectively, even given a large and well funded supercapital fleet.

White Noise seems to be deliberately reducing the size of their renter alliance as well, which may indicate a move away from that model altogether. This might indicate that they've found a means of exploiting their space that yield significant revenues without the burden of administering space for a a loose collection of renter corporations. Short internal lines of communication, logistics and defense would reduce their outlays in those areas and thus their income needs. In essence, not having a vast renter empire reduces the need to pay for its defense and upkeep, allowing for a more efficient financial and logistic model.

White Noise appears to be planning for changes to the game that will punish alliances that depend on long range mobility and spend alliance resources maintaining far-flung renter empires. It may be that White Noise has received early word on said changes and is optimizing their operations in anticipation of them.

If that assumption is true, it's interesting that Legion isn't following a similar course. This would suggest that either this intelligence hasn't been shared with Legion of Death, or Legion is disinclined to act on it.

Curmudgeon

2011-07-01T07:54:00.000-07:00

As most of you who've read the back issues at the Edge know, my goal is a thoughtful discussion of events and general goings on in the Eve meilieu; to provide insight as well as entertainment. Of course as Jenny, my former research librarian, likes to remind me, entertainment at Fiddler's Edge, with its Wall o' Text (tm) approach to blogging, can be sparse. I tell her to think of it as elegance achieved through restraint.

However, I fear I've let you down of late. It's been brought to my attention that I've become something of a curmudgeon.

And looking back over the last we months of posts I do see a marked uptick in axe grinding at the expense of thoughtful analysis. Now, there's nothing wrong with grinding the odd axe, particularly if the axe being ground calls out or illustrates a crucial point. Even the odd bit of curmudgeoning can be entertaining and inform or illuminate.

However, while routine and gratuitous curmudgeoning can be entertaining, it rarely adds value to a point or argument and can, in fact, be a distraction. In short, while aging cranks get lots of attention, they are rarely persuasive no matter how convincing the content of their arguments. Besides, the land of curmudgeons is well populated. If you're jonesing for that sort of entertainment, you don't need 'ol Mord.

With that in mind, I will take extra care with the application of curmudgeonese; use it more sparingly to enhance rather than stand in for the commentary and analysis I serve up here.

The Banality of Nullsec

2011-06-24T13:40:00.000-07:00

"You're a dull boy. Dull as plainsong. La-la-la, forever on one note."
James Goldman - The Lion in Winter

If I haven't been writing too much about nullsec, it's simply that there isn't much of interest in nullsec about which to write. The big picture for the second quarter of the year has been the triumph of the supercapital, the fall of the Northern Coalition and the transformation of Real Money Trading's role from CCP's public enemy number one to that of a critical revenue stream in CCP's business strategy.

As we roll into the third quarter of 2011, the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassal alliances hold roughly seventy percent of nullsec.In the North, Goonswarm suddenly finds itself subcapital specialists in a game dominated by hostile supercapital fleets. The Goons feign nonchalance while scrambling to cobble together a credible supercapital force - a task made easier by all the corporations cast loose upon the flood by the Northern Coalition's disintegration.

In the South, other elements of the Deklein Coalition have tied their fortunes to Fountain and Querious. This has stretched thin the tether between members of DC, further weakening the Goon's position. Meanwhile, Against All Authorities (-A-) and their allies are preparing for invasion. Recall that -A- reclaimed their former stomping grounds in Teneferis, lost to them in last September's invasion of their space by White Noise, The Initiative and Pandemic Legion. As I wrote last month, White Noise simply pulled out of the region, intending to take it back once matters with the NC were resolved.

Delve and Querious are the beaches upon which many refugee's from NC's ill-starred fortunes have washed ashore. Some arrive in the form of slimmed down NC alliances, while others have migrated to alliances already resident. Everyone seems to want a piece of that storied space. With the DRF & Co. occupying so much high of the high value nullsec real estate, they're among the few remaining regions worth a serious tussle that aren't locked down by larger powers.

PL makes noises about including the DRF among their targets once their current contract ends, but I don't take that seriously for a number of reasons I'll go into another time. If PL does attack the Russians, PL will either be gone or much diminished by the turn of the year. They might seek permission to hunt DRF vassals. However, most likely they'll join the mosh pit that Delve is becoming and play there until the DRF or its vassals need assistance and call them back to heel.

So. What can we look for in the next quarter? Same song, slightly different words. Indications are that CCP will not apply any significant nerf to the supercapitals in the foreseeable future. These very expensive, must-have toys are, simply put, too valuable as a potential source of income for CCP as they plan extending microtransactions beyond vanity items to key elements of Eve-play.

The game deteriorates. CCP, hyper-focused on turning the player community into a massively parallel ATM has lost sight of Eve as an entertainment. The imbalance introduced by the enhanced supercapitals only grows worse. The Incarna technology injection has bogged down game performance. And Helicity Bosun, the person who caught CCP in an outright lie viz the intent of microtransactions has been banned from the game.

It's going to be a long Summer.

Love's Labors Lost

2011-06-16T04:39:00.000-07:00

Eve online has come up with a new scheme for monetizing third party applications and websites.

Up to now, Eve hasn't allowed third party applications to charge for the use of web applications or websites that leverage CCP APIs or other intellectual property - like those slick Eve-fonts and graphics CCP hands out. That restriction on monetizing has been the downfall of a number of apps and websites, including the much-loved but underfunded Capsuleer phone app.

The world is about to change. In exchange for $99 and signing a commercial licensing agreement with CCP, you may now can charge subscription fees, receive donations, sell your app in an app-stores. This should go a long way toward making some of the more sophisticated third parts tools more financially viable.

"But Mord," you might say, "Aren't there successful apps and websites like Dotlan and Eve Tribune that already solicit donations in order to keep the doors of their websites open? "

Why yes. You're absolutely right. That loophole will close. Sites like Dotlan that leverage Eve API and solicit donations to pay operational costs are regarded by CCP as commercial sites and will be required to sign up for the program and fork over the licensing fee. Eve Tribune seems a dicier case. They do solicit donations, but how much they use CCP intellectual property is open to interpretation. If they've signed an agreement to allow use of Eve graphics and fonts, chances are they'll be required dig into their wallet in exchange for the privilege of continuing to do what they've been doing for years.

Oh, and sites that take payment or donations in ISK are commercial as well. This would likely include special activity sites like Hulkageddon. Blogs like Rixx Javix's Evoganda, which hosts event's like Death Race that include an ISK based sign up fee (which is used for prizes) may have to sign up as a commercial app, or cease such operation. Even owners of non commercial apps and sites will be required to join up, albeit without charge (for now).

Now, given the number of third party apps out there, $99 is not a great deal of money for a corporation like CCP. So why do this? I suspect the goal of the program is two-fold.

First of all, CCP would like to make third party apps more viable. The ability to monetize a site or app should mean that the better, more innovative of them will become more viable and hang around longer - thereby improving the Eve and Dust514 experience at no cost to CCP. Further, if the third-party developer community thrives and starts making big bucks, this program will leave CCP well positioned to demand its cut of the income.

Meanwhile, the registration process for commercial apps establishes a precedence of CCP maintaining a degree of control over these third party apps and allows CCP to define its intellectual property boundaries. All very important for future lawsuits. It also allows CCP some leverage with regard to content control. If a licensed web site is doing or saying things that CCP doesn't approve of, CCP can simply threaten loss of that license to pull said web site back into line. So, to a large extent, this initiative appears to be as much about control of the Eve and Dust brands and non CCP content about those brands as it is about money.

It will be interesting to see how aggressively and how far CCP pushes the new regime. For many third party purveyors of Eve and Dust514 content, particularly the donation sites, this will be a forced change to their business model. Some of them will prosper under the new regime. Others will fold up tents rather than pay for what has been, to date, a labor of love.

But then, CCP doesn't get paid for labors of love.

The Tipping Point

2011-06-07T05:47:00.000-07:00

If you've been looking at the current Eve influence maps these days, you'll have noted that the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassal alliances Raiden[DOT], Evoke, Northern Coalition[DOT] and Pandemic Legion control a long arc of nullsec space that runs from the Vale/Tribute border in northern nullsec to the Omist/Teneferis border in the South.

Presently DRF and company are battering at the doors of Tribute which, I believe, has been the primary target of the DRF's campaign from the beginning. Tribute is a rich area from a resource perspective. Larded on top of their existing ISK generating capacity, Tribute would make the DRF a financial power with an ISK earning capacity that would dwarf that of any other Eve coalition. In his most recent Ten Ton Hammer column, The Mittani points out the leverage all that DRF wealth buys.

While the DRF are no slouches when it comes to PvP, the core NC alliances' PvP skills had matured in 2010, particularly in the area of capital fleets, and had shown themselves a match for the Russians in the field. The quality of NC fleet commanders tended to be spotty but, properly lead, the NC forces had shown themselves to be capable fighters in both the capital and subcapital aspects of the game. Early efforts by the DRF to establish themselves in Geminate were turned back by the NC with relative ease.

Stymied on the military front, the DRF unlimbered the financial side of their arsenal. Well placed bribes provided the DRF with an initial foothold in Geminate that the Drone Russians could not win by force of arms. When that was in danger of collapsing under pressure from the NC, the DRF purchased the services of Pandemic Legion to attack Vale and reduce pressure on the DRF forces in Geminate.

The sheer number of Supercapitals the DRF was able to purchase ensured not only numeric superiority in the invaders' Supercapital fleets, but also ensured a ready supply of replacements for supercapitals lost in combat. Thus, the DRF could not only deploy superior numbers across multiple points of attack, they could do so more aggressively, knowing their losses could be easily replaced.

As of this writing the DRF and their vassal alliances have consolidated their holds on both Geminate and Vale of the Silent, and have established a foothold in Tribute. Morsus Mihi and Razor Alliance, along with the remnants smaller NC alliances are attempting to push them back out. However, sov combat is a game won and lost by supercapital fleets, and the DRF are presently holding that "I Win" button. Barring internal division within the DRF and vassals, or an unexpected threat to the DRF renter space, the writing is on the wall.

Much has been made of Against All Authorities' (-A-) assault on the southern border of White Noise in Teneferis. However Against All Authorities (-A-) doesn't appear to have followed up their conquest of that region by applying pressure to White Noise holdings in Detorid. Instead, White Noise appears to be pulling back in that region without any encouragement, probably by way of adjusting their nullsec footprint to accommodate their newly conquered territories.

Strategic Operations Brigade (SOB), a new DRF vassal alliance made up largely of former RAGE corporations, has been given sovereignty in the Detorid constellations closest to the sole Teneferis entry system. Thus, enemies recently defeated by the DRF are turned into loyal vassals, beholden to White Noise. In return for a slice of nullsec, SOB will act as a buffer for White Noise on their frontier with -A-. The financial cost of holding the Detorid systems is moved off White Noise balance sheets.

Using vassals like SOB in this manner serves the DRF from a public relations perspective as well. As the sov map stands today, the DRF and their vassal alliances are a clear and present danger to the remaining free alliances of nullsec. Even the Mittani and his Goons, PvP rich, but supercapital poor, are concerned that they are next on the block if Razor Alliance and Morsus Mihi fall. By farming out space to vassals, the DRF disguises the effective size of its sphere of influence and creates the illusion of a politically diverse nullsec.

Now, you'll note that I've listed Pandemic Legion above as a DRF vassal alliance.

I've written elsewhere with regard to PL's limitations as a gun-for-hire business venture. In essence PL's predisposition to griefing makes them an unreliable entity with which to do business. Eschewing the burdens of holding sovereignty of their own, and with the DRF as it's sole major customer, PL has limited options for revenue generation, particularly for the rank and file pilots. Ironically, the DRF's current success means even fewer customers for PL. Every new system the DRF takes, each new alliance it takes under its wing, is one less target against which PL can make take out a contract as contracting against the DRF and vassals has the disadvantage of alienating a profitable client. At the moment, over half of nullsec is under the DRF umbrella and therefore unavailable to PL for making mayhem; its self-proclaimed raison d'etre.

Sooner or later, the interests of PL and the DRF are going to come into conflict. I'm sure both PL and the DRF are mindful of this and giving thought to life after the NC campaign. PL presently has value to the DRF as a useful weapon against its enemies. However, with the number of viable enemies dwindling, the DRF may well be wondering if PL has outlived its use if it can't be domesticated.

PL will be mindful of the same. Law and order is not PL's friend. The surest way to kill off PL is to deny it safe haven - to harry it throughout nullsec, no matter where it runs. With the DRF and friends in charge of the better part of nullsec, and the number of alternative options shrinking, PL may be thinking that the time has come to start trimming back the DRF kudzu grass - to make prey of the DRF herd. PL would be wise to consider the possibility that its employer is thinking the same thoughts and might be wondering if it's in the DRF's interests to swap its role as PL's employer for that of its undertaker.

After all, once the NC is laid low it would be a simple matter for the DRF to muster the PL supercapital fleet deep in DRF space and trap/destroy them there. Once PL's supercapital teeth are drawn, the DRF has the money and the ships to deny PL safe harbor anywhere in nullsec.

So, PL is coming up on a choice: To wear the DRF's collar, or bite the hand that feeds it and run for the wilderness. This assumes, of course, that the DRF is going to give PL the option. If PL chooses the freedom of the open plains, it's going to need allies. Which means it will have to convince the remaining free nullsec alliances that they have enough common cause to put old grudges by, and then join (and possibly lead) them against the DRF bloc.

Yeah. You heard me. Pandemic Legion may be free nullsec's best hope. I love my irony with a twist.

The AUR and the Super Carrier

2011-05-27T12:35:00.000-07:00

With the coming of micro-transactions to New Eden, I now understand CCP Greyscale's reluctance to take action against the over-powered supercapital class of ships.

It's all about the AUR.

In their latest devblog posting CCP announced how micro-transactions will work in Eve Online.

To break it down:

You pay in AUR for Vanity items (i.e. clothes/accessories for your avatar or that alliance insignia and paint job for your ship)
AUR can only be bought by redeeming PLEX
Vanity items can be resold in game after their initial purchase, but only for ISK

"But Mord," you might ask, "Why do we need a new currency? Why can't I simply buy vanity goods directly with ISK and be done with it? And what does this have to do with supercapitals?"

I'm glad you asked that. You're being particularly insightful today. Bear with me, this is going to be a slightly round-about trip.

See, the need to use PLEX to buy AUR creates a new, secondary market for the PLEX.

Up until now, PLEX were reimbursed in place of paying directly for a subscription. A purchased PLEX entered the system and, in theory, didn't leave the system until it was reimbursed for play time or used as a donation.

Now, recall back in January when in The Coming Super Carrier Buff I expressed puzzlement over CCP Greyscale's uncharacteristic concern for Super Carrier pilots in the event their wildly overpowered ships were brought back into balance.

CCP Greyscale seems strangely resistant to the idea of reducing the Super Carriers utility out of apparent concern for the lot of Super Carrier pilots. Simply nerfing Super Carriers, Greyscale said, "imposes a great cost on [Super Carrier] pilots".

Now that's a bit strange.

In imposing nerfs on various ships over the years CCP's policy over the years has been to put the health of the game over the interests of pilots of a class of ship than had gotten out of balance. Investing heavily in any overpowered ship or technology has always been a calculated risk in New Eden, as such ships are routinely targeted by CCP for re-balancing. We are all aware that, unlike Star Trek's Scotty, CCP can change the laws of physics on you.

But, suddenly, crocodile tears are being shed for the poor, poor Super Carrier pilots.

I suggested at the time that there might be a profit motive behind Greyscale's sudden empathy for pilots of a particular ship class. After all, I pointed out, if the ISK needed to finance supercapitals and the expensive modules and implants needed for them are being bought via PLEX, that's money in the bank for CCP. In that case, CCP Greyscale would every reason for keeping Super Carriers and Titans the overpowering, 'must have' ship they remain today.

Some of you, like the Sage of Canada, Kirith Kodachi, correctly pointed out that, in theory, the transaction should be a wash for CCP.

"That nets out to about $700 US worth of Plex purchases to buy a bargain-basement priced Nyx in-game. [...] That, my friends, is money in the bank for CCP assuming those ISK are bought through CCP's Plex program."

But those purchased PLEXes can only be used for paying for someone's game time. Thus that 700 dollars replaced someone else's 700 dollars of subscription fees. The only way CCP makes money is if the PLEX are destroyed.

Now PLEX can be destroyed.

Under CCP's new micro-transactions scheme, a PLEX used for AUR exits the system. It cannot be used to purchase game time.

Mind, even before the AUR, CCP was making money on PLEX purchases. But that was money at the margins; PLEX languishing in the in-game speculation market, or keeping subscribers unable to pay in cash in the game.

With AUR, CCP finally has a true PLEX sink that costs CCP next to nothing. When a PLEX is burned for AUR it exits the game and CCP's balance sheets will reflect it as almost pure profit.

Now, notice in the dev blog announcement that CCP Zulu says they will monitor the PLEX market to make sure it doesn't get out of control. This probably means that CCP intends to inject PLEX into the system if their price gets too high or buy up PLEX if the market gets flooded and the price crashes. This is the sort of mechanism a government might use to control inflation or deflation in a market economy and the sort of move I'd expect Dr. E to push.

This is good for you, because it ensures the price of a PLEX won't go completely out of sight. However, it also ensures you won't get crazy-wild discounts on PLEX either. It is exceptionally good for CCP in either event, because it allows them to maintain the PLEX market at a level that ensures an optimal flow of PLEX purchases.

CCP is a for profit company. When CCP Greyscale suddenly breaks pattern and begins to act out of character, a for profit motive is the likely diagnosis.

Diagnosis confirmed. Cha-ching.

Gaming on the Chain Gang

2011-05-26T11:35:00.000-07:00

Just a quick pointer to a story of interest.

Some of you may have run across this story in the Guardian already. Seems that hard labor in the Chinese prison system can mean more than just making little rocks out of big ones.

Seems the guards in the scheme described in the article had their own little internet enterprise going. After a hard day of work for the state, the inmates were put to work in the World of Warcraft universe, mining gold, building characters and collecting artifacts which the guards then sold for real money. Inmates were given quotas and the shifts were reported to run as long as twelve hours.

Mind, I've known some Eve players on the same schedule, but usually without the mandatory rock-breaking before hand. Plus they usually have the solace of alcohol and no one breaks their fingers if they don't make their ISK quota.

Makes you think, though. Has anyone else noticed how resistant the Drone Russians are to failscades? How they're always up for those alarm clock CTAs? How amazing their fleet participation is? It's like they don't have anything to do but play the game.

Hmmm.

Sock Puppet

2011-05-25T04:15:00.000-07:00

In his latest Eve Evolved column, Brendan Drain over at Massively leaps to the defense of CCP's recent buff to supercapitals.

Now, I had pretty well knocked the dust of that decision from my sandals. I'd put the matter behind me and moved on. Normally, I would take the high road; be and let be and all that. After all, I've said my peace on the matter. Water under the bridge. Done is done, right?

Unfortunately, Brendan linked to my recent Fiddler's Edge post on the matter by way of illustrating the opinions of those with whom he disagreed. Worse yet, he didn't have the good grace to mount a meaningful counter-argument. Now it's personal.

*cracks knuckles*

If you follow Brendan's column, you'll note he gets a lot of interviews with and information from the Eve Online design and development teams. They seem on good terms. He has, as they say, access.

For those of you not familiar with how western journalism works, this sort of access is almost never free. It’s usually paid for by way of an informal tit for tat arrangement. Such arrangements are rarely explicitly laid out and are often cultivated by the source over time. In exchange for interviews, scoops and insider tidbits, the journalist in question is expected to avoid embarrassing the source.

It’s assumed a journalist with the privilege of access will not ask tough questions or publish embarrassing facts about the source. On occasion the journalist is expected to act as a mouthpiece for the source when said source wants to express an opinion or leak information without doing so directly. When bad press about the source does surface, the journalist with access generally contributes to the subject by delivering the source’s side of the story or stands mute, delivering nothing at all.

In short, journalists who get too close to their source become apologists for the source; unpaid members of the source’s public relations staff rather than actual journalists.

They become, as I like to call them, media sock puppets.

I suspect Brendan Drain may have turned the corner into sock-puppetdom. His language in the column suggests he and CCP have discussed and are of one mind on the subject matter. In expressing their intents with regard to jump bridges and force projection he speaks on CCP's behalf without needing to reference interviews, papers or devblogs. It would also explain why Brendan comes to this subject so late in the game, well after the change has been put in place. This suggests that CCP is still getting a lot of churn from the user base on the subject and Brendan is acting as a surrogate to help them calm the waters.

Besides, sock-puppetdom is the only excuse I can come up with for the tortured logic that comprises his latest column.

A central assertion in Brendan’s argument is that jump bridges needed to be nerfed because they were causing a decline in the amount of PvP occurring in Eve Online.

“One of the strange revelations to come out of the last big CSM summit was the fact that the amount of PvP going on in EVE is declining. A big culprit behind this could be jump bridges, which currently provide a completely safe way to move ships across huge distances.”

Now, Brendan duly supplies a link to the “strange revelations” that underpin his argument. However the provided link leads only to an interview he conducted during the CSM summit and published on January 23 on Massively. In that interview Brendan himself reveals the aforementioned revelations, incorporating them into his questions as givens. In other words, the only source Brendan cites as evidence in support of this assertion is Brendan.

To the best of my knowledge CCP has not made available to the public the source data or analysis methods used to describe the decline of PvP that has them so worried. Likewise, Brendan provides no data analysis, even at the highest levels, to support the supposed falloff of PvP in Eve Online; the very lynchpin of his argument for hobbling jump bridges.

For the sake of argument, let's give that a pass and accept a falloff of PvP in Eve as a given. Even then CCP and their sock puppet require a second leap of faith from us. Neither CCP nor Brendan has provided any evidence of a causal relationship between Jump Bridges and PvP falloff. In fact there is not, to my knowledge, evidence showing even a reasonable correlation between the two.

Jump bridges have been a part of Eve Online since the Revelations II release in June of 2007. Thus, they’ve been a part of nullsec for almost four years. CCP Greyscale should be more aware of this than most as he authored a devblog entry on July 7 of that year providing clarifications on the use of the “new toy”.

Now, nearly four years after jump bridges were introduced, we are expected to accept on blind faith that they are suddenly a major contributor to a relatively recent phenomenon. The reasoning on this point is so weak that Brendan is left with nothing to offer the reader but the limp assessment that jump bridges “could be a big culprit” behind the supposed decline in PvP.

In other words, CCP is making a wild-assed guess and Brendan Drain doesn’t have the journalistic chops to call them on it.

Much of Brendan’s article occupies itself with a discussion on force projection, and argues several times that jump bridges are a component of CCP's force projection problem. However, he dismisses his own point when he states that the nerf of jump bridges has nothing to do with addressing the force projection problem.

"The sentiment that has been ringing throughout EVE's blogging community is that changing jump bridges without changing other force-projection abilities is a massive mistake. However, these jump bridge changes aren't designed to tackle the issue of force projection. They're specifically dealing with a travel safety factor that should never have been built into the system in the first place. Force projection is case for another time and place, and when viewed in isolation, the jump bridge changes look a lot more reasonable."

Oy

Having spent the bulk of his column associating jump bridges with force projection, Brendan is now stating that nerfing jump bridges has nothing to do with force projection because the intent of the change had to do with making travel less safe. This utterly ignores the fact that, by Brendan's own definition, altering jump bridges will impact force projection. With supercapital force projection left unhindered in any practical way, nerfing jump bridges has tilted the balance of power even further toward those alliances with the most supercapitals. CCP's intended outcomes are rather beside the point.

Brendan seems to think that, as long as CCP's intentions are good, outcomes don't matter. In fact the opposite is true.

Brendan seems to assume that the primary reason for using jump bridges is the "safety factor" - to move in safety within an alliance's space. If he or the CCP gang believe that they haven't done their homework. Safety comes from a good intel network that detects and quickly reports enemy gangs so they can be either avoided or expunged.

While jump bridges can be used for safety's sake, they are more commonly used to reduce onerous travel time within alliance space. This allows players to spend time playing the game rather than dragging ass through 20 jumps in order to pick up new fittings for their Zealot. This change, in and of itself, will have minimal impact the safety of a player while in alliance territory. If Brendan or CCP took the time to survey nullsec players regarding how they use jump bridges rather than simply assuming their suppositions to be correct, they'd know this.

I've held forth elsewhere regarding the notion that nullsec, by definition, should be less safe than lowsec. Nullsec doesn't mean security can't be had. Rather, it means that the only security you have is the security you yourselves can enforce. That is pure sandbox.

Finally, Brendan holds that the jump bridge changes are reasonable if viewed in isolation. If jump bridges functioned in isolation, that would be a sensible approach. However, they do not. They are a component in a larger system and changes to them have to be viewed in a systemic context. You can't simply ignore part of that system because it doesn't fit with your desired game play paradigm.

That's not design. That's called going to your happy place.

I understand the lure of sock-puppetdom. Nobody wants to shred their own meal ticket. If Brendan speaks unpleasant truths in his column to the folks at CCP they may respond by reducing his access. He may no longer be given routine interviews with their employees or be as well received at summits and fan fests (assuming they invite him at all). Reporters and columnists, as much as anyone else, like to be liked by those with access to useful information.

Having access is nice. However one should never forget that it comes at a price that can only be paid with one's integrity.

Zombie Apocalypse

2011-05-19T08:49:00.000-07:00

The US Center for Disease Control wants you to prepare for the coming zombie apocalypse.

Really. No kidding.

Please follow the link provided below and make sure you have the recommended zombie apocalypse preparedness kit ready in the event the slack-jawed little brain suckers start shambling down a street or dark alley near you.

Yeah, I know. Zombie apocalypses may seem a bit off the beaten track for The Edge. However, the importance of planning for nullsec disasters being the subject of my upcoming post, I thought it would make a nice little lead-in. Besides, zombies notwithstanding, the underpinning message is an important one in light of recent natural disasters.

This has been a Fiddler's Edge public service announcement

The Wild Ones

2011-05-17T09:52:00.000-07:00

If you've been reading the dev blogs over at the main Eve Online site, you'll have stumbled across the recent Agents Made Easy announcement.

Some of it is pretty straightforward - consolidation of agent divisions and the related Connection skills. Gone are the 21 different divisions, each with its own balance of varying mission types (e.g., encounter, courier, etc.). In their place we'll find four divisions, each offering a single mission type 100% of the time.

Some dedicated missioners are finding the new order a bit dull sounding and less nuanced than the old and are complaining. And with some cause, I think. Running missions for entertainment sake got old for me some time back, but I can see how the byzantine nature of the divisions provided something of a puzzle to keep things interesting. What agent to choose and which missions to run will be more straightforward, but that will make grinding missions more of a grind. This change pretty much eliminates "Missioning" as an in-game specialty.

Agent quality undergoes a bit of dumbing down as well. OK, actually quality is done away with in effect. All agents for a given level will be equally easy to access - as though they were -20 on the quality scale. However they will all reward completed missions at the same level - as though they were +20 on the quality scale. So all agents within an given level are as easy to access as a -20 agent of that level, and reward successful missions as a +20 agent. Player status with a corporation needed to gain access to a agents for a given level is all that matters. After that, it's all gravy until you hit the next level.

Now, if any level 4 agent will pay out the same amount for the same mission, this means that players don't have to cluster around a few systems in order to optimize level 4 mission rewards. In theory, this means ninja salvagers and high sec pirates and griefers will have slimmer pickings as the level 4 mission runners spread out across high sec. It should also mean that the market for modules and salvagables looted from NPC wrecks should become more diffused as well, rather than remaining concentrated in a few mission oriented market hubs.

Many existing missioners will stay put rather than go to the time and trouble of moving themselves or their corporation to a new base of operations. However, as they slowly spread out, those mission runners that remain in the current mission hubs will be increasingly targeted - there being fewer targets for the associated pirates, ninjas and griefers. That in turn will apply pressure on the remaining mission runners to seek riches in more hospitable locations. Finally, both mission runners and those who prey on them should be diffused throughout high and low sec. Of course this will mean more danger for those missioners who deliberately avoided the highest quality agents in order to avoid the attendant high-sec pirates, ninjas and griefers.

The net of this is that CCP is making it easier and safer to make money grinding missions in high sec. Meanwhile, remember, they're making it harder to make money by ratting in nullsec. I suspect that these two simple but fundamental changes to the game occurring in close succession is no accident.

CCP appears to be taking action to reverse past policy and move population out of nullsec and back to highsec. Fewer players in nullsec, after all, means smaller alliances and smaller fleets, right? Fewer massive fleets means fewer massive fleet fights. Fewer massive fleet fights could yield benefits in term of fewer lagged systems, which are an ongoing system performance problem for CCP. It might also force more of the small fleet/small gang PvP that CCP Grayscale regards as the most desirable form of play.

However, while some corporations might move wholesale back to highsec for the easy cash, I think that most of the players presently in nullsec will remain in nullsec.

First of all, it's fairly quick and easy to train up an alt sufficiently to run level 4 missions in highsec. Thus a player can easily keep a highsec alt to use as a money-maker while his primary PvP alt(s) remains in nullsec. As money making in high-sec doesn't have to stop for nullsec wars, this may actually serve to offset the impact of changes to high-end ratting anomalies in nullsec.

Finally, a lot of players just plain like the dynamic nature of play in nullsec. We like the Eve sandbox in its truest form, the wide-open nature of the game.

There are indications that CCP is trying to reduce the parameters of that sandbox; to make the game more manageable, like a Disney experience or World of Warcraft. Maybe dangling easy money and dumbed-down mission profiles at players from high sec is the beginnings of that. Might even work from a business model standpoint. An easier Eve would retain a higher percentage of first-timers who'd be quick to pay for the avatar clothes, golden ammo and painted space ships that are to be a big part of future CCP revenue.

But a disnified Eve won't be the game for me. Having ridden the wild horses of nullsec, a turn on the merry-go-round won't do.

Here's to the wild ones.

The Supercapital Economy

2011-05-10T19:36:00.000-07:00

Do you remember back in January - that dusty West Texas town? Where we spent our nights in the little cantina named Lágrimas de Los Perdidos? You'd play the guitar, soft and low, while I shuffled and dealt cards. And sometimes, late at night when the moon went down, young women from the town would slip from their beds to find us there. And they'd step softly to our table, look down at us with their dark and liquid eyes, and ask "Is there anything I can do for you, mister?" And, remember, I would turn to you, just at that moment? And I'd say:

"You know, when CCP nerfs the jump bridges, there'll be no commensurate nerf to Super Carriers."

With CCP Soundwave's announcement earlier today, I was proved right. Again.

I wrote back in January that this would happen. And of course you all know what it means. The reduction in the ability to project force with conventional forces means that the supercapital is more powerful than ever when it comes to projecting force. And conventional ships are even weaker when it comes to offsetting the supercapital "I Win" button.

While not killing jump bridges altogether, there will be a new limit of one bridge per system, as opposed to two per system as is currently the case. While jump ships won't be able to use Jump Bridges in the new order, that will be an inconvenience chiefly felt by Jump Freighters. It won't be a meaningful limit on the ability of supercapital fleets to project power.

Now, the supposed reason for this is to bring on the PvP in nullsec. Pirates like Rixx Javix have the idea that its going to allow their roaming gangs easy kills without having to worry about the posse coming over the hill after them in force. They think new killing fields will be opened up to them, and the mean old nullsec alliances will curb stomp them no more.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

If power cannot be projected using subcapitals, it can be projected with supercapitals. And that means it will be projected with supercapitals. While they will intercepted less often by a hoard of battleships, nuisance alliances (i.e., those that don't have a significant supercapital presence of their own) will be baited and then curbstomped by the capital/supercapital fleets which are no longer the rarity they once were. With supercapitals the most effective means of projecting power, these fleets will become even more commonplace.

By decreasing the utility of subcapitals CCP is driving nullsec increasingly toward a supercapital based economy, in which only alliance with deep pockets can afford the price of entry.

So much for making nullsec available to small alliances.

Storm Warnings

2011-05-10T04:24:00.000-07:00

While White Noise (WN) and company gain ground in Geminate and Vale of the Silent, a quick look look at DOTLAN shows that Against All Authorities (-A-) is busily knocking at WN's back door in Teneferis.

Recall that White Noise picked up most of their Teneferis holdings while participating in the rollback of -A- last September alongside The Initiative, Pandemic Legion and Circle of Two. Later, when -A- and the rest of the Southern Russian Coalition struck back at The Initiative and friends, White Noise took advantage of the situation. With The Initiative on the ropes and IT Alliance hard pressed in Fountain, White Noise opened a second front against Initiative systems in Teneferis. Scooping up Teneferis and Catch systems The Initiative was too weak to defend, White Noise expanded their rental empire significantly with little danger to themselves.

In the three months since IT Alliance fell from power, -A- has been consolidating its hold on Catch and rebuilding strength lost during their forced exile. Now, with the supercapital fleets of both Pandemic Legion and White Noise occupied in an offensive against the Northern Coalition (NC), -A- appears to feel strong enough to take back their old Teneferis holdings, offering White Noise some payback for its role in the invasion of -A- space last September.

As of today, -A- and friends have rolled White Noise from all but the Northeastern corner of Teneferis. By now White Noise renters and non-PvP resources have been relocated to systems well behind the current frontier (note the depth of buffer systems between 77S8-E, the Detroid/Teneferis entry system and the nearest renter system). Detroid, which WN shares with new DRF allies Raiden[DOT], is WN's obvious staging area and launching point for counterattacks, should they occur.

If -A- holds pat in Teneferis and doesn't attempt to take the fight into Detroid, it's unlikely that White Noise will contest possession of Teneferis as long as things are on high boil in the North. It isn't unusual for the DRF to relocate renters and rely on the depth of their territory to wear down attackers, and then respond in force once the enemy gets bored of grinding away at structures.

If it believes a conflict with White Noise is inevitable, -A- might be looking for a smack-down with WN now rather than later. If -A- adopts a wait and see posture, they will likely face the same coalition of forces presently attacking the NC when WN comes knocking in turn. However, a push by -A- into Detroid now could force WN to detach from the Northern offensive in order to protect their Detroid assets, while the rest of the DRF remained in the North to carry on the offensive. That might allow -A- to bloody White Noise before the remainder of the DRF can get into the fight.

It would be a ballsy move, but it's not one I'd count on. With the DRF having made allies of IT Alliance spin-offs and with Pandemic Legion on their payroll they can field, at last check, 140 supercaps in a single engagement. Remember when 80 supercaps was an unthinkably large supercap fleet? My guess is that -A-, like much of nullsec, might try to follow a policy of security through obscurity; attempting to stay below the DRF radar once the conquest of Teneferis is complete. Time tends to work against large coalitions, and a change in the weather is always possible.

Alas, the DRF alliances have shown themselves resistant to such changes. So, one is left with a few choices. One might hunker down and hold one's patch of nullsec while hoping to escape notice. One might hope that White Noise will be satisfied with what they've taken so far, their vast appetite for ever more rental properties sated at last; sort of a give-Hitler-Czechoslovakia-and-he'll-leave-us-alone strategy. Or, one might fight the rising tide.

We'll see if someone not already under threat from the DRF steps forward to ring the alarm and organize the common defense of nullsec. If not, the DRF will likely isolate and pick off potential threats one by one, leaving a few non-affiliated nullsec regions for public relations purposes. Alliances not under the DRF umbrella will either stand together or hang separately, as they say.

So sit back and pass around the whiskey and cigars. It's going to be an interesting Summer.

The Mittani and Incarna

2011-04-26T04:04:00.000-07:00

The Mittani has embraced Incarna.

As most of you know, the first step toward walking in stations (i.e. 'Captain's Quarters') is expected to be released in the near future. The longer term goal, of course, is an overall integration of Incarna (in-station avatar interaction) with Dust 514 with traditional ships in space as per the vision video shown at the last Fanfest. I've held forth elsewhere in the last year or so as to why this has the potential to allow CCP leapfrog the competition and offer a comprehensive gaming experience seen nowhere else. If they pull it off it'll take the competition years to catch up. If not, I expect CCP will end up shutting its doors. It's a "bet your company" kind of move.

I'm sure a lot of dedicated spacers out there will assume that CCP has 'turned' the Mittani, that he's become a pod-person, been bribed or otherwise co-opted by the lads in Iceland. Likely not. Mittens is nothing if not a practical business man. Chances are, once they showed him the business plan and shared gaming industry direction, the pieces fell into place and he saw the brass ring CCP is grabbing after. They've also shown him that there's no turning back at this point. The die, as they say, is cast. If the Mittani finds the goal worth reaching and the leap of faith's already been made, there's no reason Mittens wouldn't get on board the Incarna train.

Now, unlike The Mittani, I don't think micro-transactions for avatar makeup and clothing is going to spare players the "golden ammunition" scenario he describes. Eve is well on its way to being a wallet-driven game. As the recent 154 supercapital ship DRF fleet showed, the bank account is the new battleground in Eve. ISK, as Krutoj the Destroyer is wont to say, wins wars.

No matter, though. Eve as we knew it is in the rear view mirror. The view of the road ahead is becoming clearer.

Legio Pandemica delenda est

Operation Fiddler's Reach

2011-04-21T14:20:00.000-07:00

I'm going to take Etherium Reach.

There's something about the place; a certain je ne sais quoi, that makes me want to conquer it. Maybe it's the name. Etherium Reach. Eeeetheeeeeerium Reeeeeeeach - sort of a siren song quality to it. When I saw it the first time, some deep inner voice said "There. That's place. Go unleash your inner Genghis Khan and conquer Etherium Reach."

Who am I to argue with deep inner voices?

I know. As real estate, it leaves a lot to be desired. Decidedly not among the high-rent nullsec neighborhoods. The NPC pirates are drones and it's proximity to lowsec makes it subject to incursions by roaming gangs of pirates and lowsec tourists. But what can you do? Sometimes a place just seems right. Sometimes it says, "Mord, you manly conquistador, you. Send forth your hordes of cartoon-space-ship warriors. Drive the DRF from my systems, and make me your own."

Mind, that may be the schizophrenia talking. Wouldn't be the first time. But that's beside the point.

The point is, I want you to initiate phase one of Operation Fiddler's Reach. Phase one involves everybody and his brother going to 1VN-XC and griefing the VooDoo Technologies, Legion of Death and Solar Fleet systems there. The beauty of this is that it requires minimal coordination, however please try to not shoot at each other. Focus on making the lives of the locals a walking misery. Light 'em up, shut 'em down and make 'em cry, and tell 'em Mord sent you.

If it's all just too much for the locals, I'll be happy to hear their surrender terms. I am, after all, a merciful and beneficent conqueror. Once the region in conquered, I'll petition to have the name changed to Fiddler's Reach.

Now, I know that many of you have full and interesting in-game lives fraught with responsibilities and don't have the time for this sort of cheap shenanigans. On the other hand, I also know that many of you are only here for cheap shenanigans. It is the latter group I call upon. Go forth. Have fun.

Fly, my pretties, fly.

Lost In Eve

2011-04-21T04:09:00.000-07:00

After a mere 60 podcasts, Jane and Jade over at Lost In Eve are packing it in.

It's a disappointment as their podcasts were starting to fire on all cylinders with regular guests slots by knowledgeable panelists and the break-out of the panel discussions into separate Lost in Conversation episodes. Many of you will know them from their hosting of the CSM6 debates. However, as is often the case, real life caught up with the lads and something had to give. I know the feeling well.

Hopefully, the fat lady hasn't sung their swan song quite yet and something can be salvaged from the ashes. In the meantime, go to their site and give 'em some farewell love.

When the Other Shoe Drops

2011-04-19T09:59:00.000-07:00

I know what you're thinking.

You're thinking, now that ol' Mord's writing his novel he's living the literary sweet life. He's attending publishing galas, sitting at the high table with Jonathan Franzen and Jhumpa Laheirie and trading witticisms with Salman Rushdie. He sips sixteen year old Scapa while brooding over galley proofs and fielding calls from studios competing for rights to the film adaptation. Mord can't go to the grocery store without being accosted by attractive, dewy-eyed young women who long to be his muse. Annie Leibovitz insists he make time for a week-long trip to Senegal to shoot the photo for the book's dust cover; never mind that the book has nothing whatever to do with Senegal.

Yes. Yes, it's exactly like that.

Thank goodness I have Fiddler's Edge and its insightful readership to keep my feet on the ground and the world in perspective. Let's get back to the serious business of cartoon spaceships.

Back in Battle of the Bands I described impending changes to nullsec that would, in effect, kill the high end ratting anomalies in nullsec systems with a low truesec. The change was implemented in one of the recent Incursion patches and we've had a little time to look at the fallout.

As expected, there's been a falloff in income for capsuleers in shallow nullsec. That should mean less money sloshing around nullsec which in turn should result in reduced market activity. Spot checks on markets, coupled with feedback from various sources suggest that a market downturn is indeed occurring. Shallow nullsec appears headed for something of a recession.

Industrialists seem to be hit less hard than strict PvPers as the Indy players have the ability to switch income sources when the ratting income sources get thin. Some nullsec industrialists I know don't rat at all, preferring to supply the ships, mods and materials that feed the incessant nullsec wars. However, many of the the PvPers who buy and fit those high value ships and mods reside in shallow nullsec. The wiser of them will have built up their cash reserves in the weeks leading up to the anomalies nerf, but are now either burning through the cash at a rapid pace or being more strategic with the spending of it. In either event, there's less money in the market. With more industrialists in shallow nullsec turning to mining, manufacturing and PI to make up the loss in anomalies income, there should be an upswing in available supply of materials and non-name finished products.

Less demand. More supply. We all know where that road leads.

Of course there will be exceptions. Supercapitals, for example, are still the "I WIN" button in nullsec sov wars and alliances will be cost inelastic where they are concerned. Even if demand for supercapitals falls off as shallow nullsec alliances and players buy fewer supercaps, expect any oversupply to be soaked up by the richer alliances holding high truesec properties. Until a significant nerf to supercaps comes out, builders of supercapitals and supercapital components should be among the few winners in shallow nullsec.

However, the shallow bits of nullsec are still a source for untold riches, even if extracting them is not as effortless as running Havens. If the factories that supply the nullsec engines of war are less active, the enterprising carebear can make money transporting raw materials, PI products, t2 blueprints et al up to the highsec markets. Many industrialists do that already, particularly in areas close by empire where the logistics make the jump-out of these products easy, and the locally produced items are unable to compete with cheaper finished goods jump-shipped in from empire.

While rents tend to be slow to drop, the simple mathematics of making the rent can't be lost on nullsec landlords. Despite grumbling among the tenants, and Krutoj's complaints on EN24, the great landlords of nullsec don't seem to be hemorrhaging ISK. To the extent possible, they will try to keep rents as close to their former levels as possible in low truesec systems while raising prices in the systems with the highest truesec. However, as bounties make up the lion's share of corporate taxes used to pay the rent, corporations will either have to raise taxes, making ratting even less profitable, or request donations from their membership. Corporations living at the margins will likely go under. Others will fold up tents rather than eek out a hand to mouth existence in nullsec. So landlords should take some degree of financial hit, though likely not a crippling one. The smarter among them will be doing the math and calculating the optimal balance between rent and system occupancy rates.

Obviously all of this is subject to change in the near term . CCP has other changes to nullsec in the wings and much will depend on what they are. If jump freighters are nerfed, for example, items produced in local nullsec will be much more competitive with items shipped in from empire. If supercaps are given a meaningful nerf, demand for them will drop. If player owned refineries are made more efficient, jumping minerals out to empire from nullsec will be less attractive. There are a number of shoes the CCP developers are getting ready to drop.

Much depends on where they fall.

The Curse of Victory

2011-04-12T08:30:00.000-07:00

I was all set to publish a largish piece on Pandemic Legion (PL). However the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) have hired PL to assist the Drone Russian invasion of Northern Coalition (NC) space (apparently, one can never have too many rental systems). Since I'll be a tad preoccupied with shooting at them, anything I publish about PL at present will be taken in that context. So that tome of Eve scholarship will have to be put on the shelf for now.

Sorry to all the regular readers for that.

Why is PL mucking about in low truesec space when they have Delve and Querious for the taking? Well, ironically, victory in the larger sense is a bit scary for the PL leadership. They are afraid that without a diet of constant mayhem, the Pandemic kids would go soft and lose their edge. And there's some truth to that. Eve history is full of bad-ass PvP alliances who took a rich territory, settled down to make the ISKies and then got fat and sloppy.

Having quashed Bobby Atlas' recent attempt at a comeback in Querious and turned aside a half-hearted invasion attempt by Against All Authorities and friends, victory was looking just a little too easy for Pandemic. With their membership's pockets full of ISK after a month or two of ratting in Titans, the PL leadership was looking for a way to have it all - a carefree life of making mayhem and a bunch of Delve technetium moons cheerfully generating vast sums of income at the same time.

Just in time, the Legion's only steady customer, the DRF comes up with a contract. Like as not PL leadership solicited the contract. Six hundred billion sounds like a lot of ISK, but it's small potatoes to an alliance with the riches of Delve and Querious at its disposal, or to the DRF with its vast empire of rental properties pouring ISK into the alliance accounts. It's pretty much a nominal fee for either alliance, but PL's leadership was anxious to get their rank and file out of PvE Havens and into some serious fights.

So, PL needed the action and the DRF is PL's only client of significance. DRF probably could have gotten PL in the fight in exchange for Krutoj's button collection. I hear it's quite nice.

The NC has shown they can beat either PL or the DRF. Even the DRF reinforced by Raiden[DOT], Evoke and NorthernCoalition[dot], and backed up by every bribe and threat Krutoj can bring to bear have had a tough go of it. That, my friends, is one very tough bunch of carebears. PL's entrance onto this fracas will make for some interesting play.

And they say there's no PvP in nullsec.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, the NC has a lot of carebear in its organizational DNA. Pandemic Legion's lineage is, on the other hand, largely griefer. Fighting the DRF is just another day in nullsec for the NC. The DRF needs another block of flats to rent out. Nothing personal. On the other hand, the NC takes a certain glee in tangling with the Pandemic boys.

See, if PL wins a fight, well that's what everyone expects. They are, after all, the masters of the metagame, the l33t uber-PvPers, at least in their own minds. But when a bunch of carebears hand them their collective ass in a fight, you know that's got to cut deep. That's the risk PL runs every time PL takes the field against the NC.

Nobody will remember if Pandemic Legion wins. Everyone will remember if they lose.

Legio Pandemica delenda est

Space Monkeys LIE

2011-04-06T04:02:00.000-07:00

For those of you waiting for part two of Renter's Guide to Nullsec, or anyone considering taking their corporation into Null Security space, I strongly recommend the March 24 issue of Lost In Eve. The lads at Space Monkey Alliance wrest the LIE microphone away from Jade and Jane and hold forth in round table format on the nuts and bolts of moving your corporation into The Deep. Very informative and worthwhile listening even if you've already made the leap.

Interesting goings on in Delve and Querious. Will success spoil Pandemic Legion?

More on that, soon.

Creatures of Light and Darkness

2011-04-02T06:14:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago a corporation named Therapy left the alliance Wildly Inappropriate (WI) for R.A.G.E, another Northern Coalition (NC) alliance. In the process Therapy insisted that the technetium moons under its control exit Wildly Inappropriate with the corporation, removing a valuable asset from WI's control. Therapy cited inadequate compensation for stations it had built in Wildly Inappropriate space as a justification for holding onto the moons.

Needless to say, the loss of such high-value moon goo and the ISK that go with it did not sit well with the lads at Wildly Inappropriate. Therapy was given a week to hand over the moons. Failure to do so would result in military action by Wildly to re-appropriate the technetium moons. The week went by without resolution and with rhetoric heating between all parties involved. Unpleasant words were exchanged and all parties involved commenced with the saber rattling.

There was a lot of excitement out on the Forums and EveNews24 at these goings on. Spectators grabbed popcorn and beer, and took their seats to watch two NC alliances enter a dust-up over a scarce and valuable resource. With any luck, the thinking went, the drama would escalate into an all out Northern Coalition civil war; and likely put an end to the BFF crew. At the very least the internal rift would weaken the NC's defense of Geminate and allow the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) an opportunity to roll over the region.

Then, as quickly as it began, the crisis was over. RAGE and WI officials working behind the scenes defused the situation, and the contested moons were passed over to WI. Spectators looking forward to seeing a large coalition tear itself to rags over a couple of moons were left disappointed as Wildly Inappropriate issued a conciliatory press release:

Positions were rethought and of course the moon has been transferred in a peaceful manner. WI would like to thank RAGE alliance for taking the time to make sound negotiations and as far as WIdot are concerned this issue is closed. We wish RAGE and Therapy. as allies, the best of luck going forward.

One unsatisfied poster on EveNews24 denounced the outcome in a single word: "Boring".

In that single word, the poster put his finger on a growing schism in the game of Eve. Despite the flexibility of the game, despite the vaunted sandbox which allows people to take whatever path they choose within the game, CCP is afraid that play-patterns not of their own design will occupy their shoot-em-up spaceship game. The flavor of the month in CCP-think seems to be that building is boring. Destruction makes for much better advertising.

The common thread that runs through the Deklein, Northern and Drone Russian coalitions, at present the three largest coalitions in nullsec, is internal stability. All three have developed a means of resolving internal conflict in a nonviolent manner and keeping inter-alliance frictions to a minimum. All three have developed distinct internal cultures that attract like-minded players and corporations. If you look to the large alliances that fell this last year and read the analysis about their collective fall, the common diagnosis is rigidity, internal instability full if dueling egos, conflicting agendas, petty grudges, e-peen waving and lots and lots of drama. In short organizational dysfunction.

Organizational dysfunction is exciting stuff. However it's...dysfunctional. By definition unstable, dysfunctional organizations tend to die off. Functional organizations tend to survive and thrive. Boredom tends to make one's organization dysfunctional; idle hands being the devil's playthings and all. So if the nullsec population has increased while PvP in nullsec is falling off (so CCP claims), then the players in those big coalitions have to be doing something else with their in-game time. And lo, so they are.

Listen: Something amazing is happening in nullsec. Civilizations are being built.

Now, this turn of events has made a lot of players with a piratical bent unhappy. It's sort of like the plight of the outlaws, gunslingers and train robbers of the old American West. You're living a life of banditry, mayhem and abandon. It's a good life. A few settlers and sod-busters show up, and that's good too, cause terrorizing them and taking their stuff is pretty good times, and way less scary than getting shot at by your fellow outlaws, gunslingers and train-robbers.

However, as with any frontier, sooner or later the settlers arrive in numbers. They put up their buildings, their banks and their institutions. Next thing you know the whorehouse has been replaced by a schoolhouse and they get all snooty about bandits robbing their banks and shooting random citizens. Violence is channeled toward external threats - like outlaws, gunslingers and train-robbers.

Cowboys like Rixx Javix want to ride into a nullsec town, shoot it up, bully the bartender, burn down the livery stable and rape the schoolmarm. Time was, naughty boys could get away with that. However, times have changed. If Rixx and his boyos ride into coalition country looking for a bit of mayhem, they often find the townspeople armed with repeating rifles and shooting at the bandits from the rooftops. Then the cavalry and the Texas Rangers arrive and the brutal curb stomping of Rixx and his merry band ensues apace.

If you're an aspiring gunslinger like Rixx Javix, this is just plain wrong. After all, how can they call it null security space if the only people who are insecure are the outlaws? Isn't nullsec space supposed to be less safe than lowsec space?

In a word, no. Nullsec means that the only security you have is the security you can enforce. That is pure sandbox.

PvP is a central component of Eve and always will be. It figures heavily in CCP's advertising campaigns and, to the mind of many players and some CCP game designers, is the only reason for playing the game. However, a while back, the lads at CCP were considering how to extend the topped-out market for Eve. One idea they dabbled with was attracting players to nullsec who would go to war when war is necessary. but preferred building to tearing down. The idea was touted in CCP's marketing video for Tyrannis, the Eve release that introduced Planetary Interaction.

That idea seems to have been detoured into CCP's dustbin. The building of empires, it turns out, requires stability, which makes for lousy marketing. Creatures of darkness have always sold better than creatures of light. Ask John Milton. However, some players seem to have had other ideas. They've come to nullsec in a rush and embraced the vision of a science fiction universe that allows more subtle complexities than any other game on the web. Rather than embrace and cultivate that audience, CCP seems minded to turn nullsec into World-of-Tanks in space.

If builders and destroyers cannot both ply their trades in the same space, simply altering the game to favor one style of play over the other is a poor business strategy for CCP as it, by definition, rejects part of their customer base. It is a false choice, and unwise at a time when they're trying to expand their player-base. Rather they have the ability to accommodate both styles of nullsec play. The beauty of digital space is that you can always make more. As Kirith Kodachi suggested, the time has come to expand nullsec.

There should be room in nullsec for both creatures of light and creatures of darkness.

Fan Fest Sweepings

2011-03-29T13:17:00.000-07:00

I swear, March has been a blur. And not your cheerful Fan Fest induced sort of blur.

Alas, while the luminaries of the Eve blogosphere partied the long nights away in Reykjavik, ol' Mord has toiled neigh ceaselessly at his laptop. Probably just as well. My last encounter with the nubile descendants of Viking marauders did not end well. Limped for a week after.

'Nuff said.

Anyway, by my standards it's been a productive month. The SF/Fantasy webzine is in motion, I've a couple of stories in revision, a film school student has asked to base his senior project on one of my published pieces, the novel's into chapter three and I've a writer's workshop starting next month.

But it's meant precious little time for Eve. I'll put end to that and undock tonight. Hopefully find my way into a little CTA mayhem.

It's meant fewer posts for The Edge too; a trend I'll try to turn around. There are some interesting goings on in former IT space that are worth attention. I'll see if I can shed some light on them.

Fly safe, don't panic and go easy on the emo.

Battle of the Bands

2011-03-28T14:38:00.000-07:00

Many of you will have heard that CCP Greyscale took to the podium during Eve Fanfest to announce the first in a series of changes to nullsec. In essence the change is an alteration of ratting yields in improved systems, hands-down the easiest and most common way of making the ISKies down in nullsec. Nullsec systems will be divided up into five bands based on their current truesec values. The least valuable systems in the first and second bands will get no high end ratting sites (Haven and Sanctums) at all. Middling systems in the third and fourth level bands will get the current max of four high end sites. The remaining band containing the best classes of system will have up to six high end sites.

Call the first and second band Shallow Nullsec, the third and forth bands Middle Nullsec, and the last band Deep Nullsec.

The original system improvement scheme, which gave all systems the same maximum possible high-end sites, was designed to get more folk out into nullsec. However CCP Greyscale believes that by making the low value parts of nullsec as valuable as the high value parts of nullsec, they've dampened the hunger for PvP in nullsec. He also thinks that by re-introducing Shallow Nullsec - parts of nullsec that he thinks nobody will want when the ratting yields go down- he's creating fertile ground for small new alliances just entering nullsec.

The reaction of nullsec residents to this change has not, generally, been positive.

OK, to be honest it's been viscerally negative. Ripard Teg's blog entry, while more thoughtful than many, is pretty representative of the overall tone. The others range from annoyed to frothing at the mouth. I predict increased attendance at next years Fan Fest as nullsec players from around the world line up to whisper unpleasant truths into Greyscale's ear.

For myself I need to sit down and have a think over this one. It's a change with a lot of twists in its tail, not all of them necessarily bad. I doubt we'll see the ones CCP's hoping for, but that's business as usual. The most interesting change will be the sudden drop-off in the amount of money pouring into the New Eden economy; a tightening of the money supply that will cascade in a lot of unexpected directions. Economic upheavals tend to result in a lot of unanticipated macro level outcomes.

Ironically, none of these will make more space available for small start-up nullsec alliances. Likely the opposite. I expect a thinning out of the population in Shallow Nullsec regions, but the occupants won't be starter alliances unless they're under the protection of more powerful nullsec patrons. Even without Havens and Sanctums, all sovereign systems have value as there are things you can make and do there that you can't anywhere else in New Eden. The doctrine of "nobody else wants it" is dead as long as that's true.

Carebears Ascendant

2011-03-24T12:31:00.000-07:00

"ISK win wars."

- Krutoj the Destroyer

I did tell you this day was coming. Way back in August. I even used pictures.

Even the amount of venom currently pointed in the direction of the new merchant princes of nullsec was quite predictable. As I said in August, all this has happened before, and all this will happen again. To a warrior elite, the only thing worse than a bunch of shopkeepers and their dirty money is having their asses handed to them by a bunch of shopkeepers and their dirty money. It tends to inspire a certain resentment.

As many of you are aware by now, the new currency of nullsec sovereignty is, well, currency. Holding space in Nullsec has become a cash-intensive proposition.

This is due in part to the introduction of sovereignty upkeep fees in December of 2009. While these fees are quite manageable for an alliance as long as it's not carrying a lot of dead weight systems (systems an alliance is unable or unwilling to exploit in order to get the wealth necessary to pay for sovereignty) they've caused alliances to actively administer their space, keep an eye on their bottom line and think of systems as a resource - as an investment of sorts.

However, the impact of sovereignty upkeep fees is small potatoes compared to the other big nullsec cost driver; supercapitals. In order to hold nullsec these days you need supercapital ships and the pilots to fly them. And this, my friends, is the real money sink when it comes to nullsec sovereignty. You see, alliances holding nullsec now have to not only be able to afford to field a supercapital fleet, they have to be able to afford to lose and replace supercapital fleets on a scale unthinkable a short time ago.

The recent supercapital smack-downs in Geminate between the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and the Northern Coalition (NC) puts the increasingly ISK-intensive nature of sov warfare in sharp relief. In two fleet battles that occurred within a week of each other, the NC lost 10 Titan class ships to 11 for the DRF. At a 55 billion build cost for the hull and another 30 billion for a proper fit, we're talking on the order of about 1.8 trillion ISK lost by the two alliances in the course of two battles - not including the flocks of Super Carriers on either side that escorted the fallen Titans along on their way to Valhalla.

Recall that the armada IT Alliance sent to support The Initiative in Catch last December numbered thirty Titans and fifty Motherships; a mighty force by anyone's reckoning at of the time and a profound show of strength. In less than a a week the NC and DRF have between them lost more than half that number.

And neither side is showing any sign of backing down.

Upon a time, losses on this scale would have been, at best, a near death experience for a nullsec alliance or coalition. However, as the knock-down of IT Alliance showed, having a supercapital fleet and deploying it only in low risk situation (when your enemy has none, for example) is not enough. You have to be willing and able to take that fleet into harm's way. And that means an alliance or coalition with the means to quickly and reliably replace supercapital losses without going bankrupt has a strategic advantage. Both the NC and the DRF have a secret weapon that make this possible.

Carebears. Lots and lots of carebears.

Obviously, the best way to ensure a reliable supply of these behemoths in a cost efficient manner is to control their means of production. Both the NC and DRF have accomplished this on a large scale, though they've come by this capacity in different ways.

The DRF are PvP focused, but maintain a vast portfolio of nullsec rental space. Standard policy for renters is that the sovereignty holding alliance has right of first refusal on all supercapital builds at a fixed rate over build cost. Thus, the carebears in the DRF rental alliances, which are presently the largest and most expansively situated in the game, can be leveraged to provide their landlords with as many supercapitals as the DRF pilots could want.

With the NC, on the other hand, the alliances and corporations that comprise the coalitions maintain the supercapital build capacity. The means of supercapital production are, aside from guest and renter alliances, internal to the coalition. Some NC supercapital pilots are themselves alternates of nullsec bears involved in the production of the engines of destruction they fly. So that carebear you popped back in Hulkageddon I may be among the pilots of the Nyx fleet that hotdrops your roaming BC gang tomorrow.

Now, if you are on the outside of the supercapital sweet shop looking in, this is all something of a troubling development. Even at near-cost, supercapitals are stratospherically expensive. Buying them at full market price (if one can be found for sale at all) is nose-bleed inducing. Assuming the "never fly what you can't afford to lose" doctrine is in play, this new economic component to nullsec warfare puts PvP alliances with limited access to nullsec industrial capacity at a profound disadvantage. "ISK," as Krutoj the Destroyer observed last Fall, "Wins wars."

As a recent commenter on The Edge pointed out, supercapitals, the essential tool for acquiring nullsec sov wars, require nullsec sov to acquire. It also requires a large complement of industrialists - a body of players toward whom many dedicated PvP alliances are not kindly disposed. Carebears, after all, are for ganking. Renters are beneath contempt. The idea that carebears in any capacity are essential for winning in nullsec must be galling for the PvP purist.

This may be why the NC, more than the DRF, has been the subject of so much vitriol in the digital public square. The DRF are PvPers after all, using carebears as a means to an end. The Drone Russians keep their carebears in a separate renter's space; at arms length and in their proper place. The Northern Coalition, on the other hand, are perceived as carebears themselves.

Thus, in the eyes of the PvP community, the NC has sinned doubly, both by being carebears and leveraging their industrial advantage to succeed in nullsec.

Density

2011-03-15T04:18:00.000-07:00

Last month in Size Matters, I introduced some really interesting numbers with regard to the population density of various nullsec alliances and coalitions. I'm sure you remember them.

I mean, those were sexy numbers; all revealing and provocative and stuff. They're the kind of numbers your mother warned you about. They sidle up next to you in a smoky bar where a drowsy sax plays a blues counterpoint to their smiles. They beguile you with small talk and glasses of unremarkable Merlot. Next thing you know they're into your brain and firing off synapses with wild abandon while doing the crazy monkey dance with other ideas in your head....

OK. I need to get out more often.

Anyway, though I'm sure they're still burned into your memories, here's a refresher, updated to reflect current data as of March 11:

Systems: Total number of systems over which the alliance holds sovereignty
Outposts: Total number of outposts within an alliances sovereign systems.
PPS: Average Population Per System - Alliance population divided by total system held.
PPO: Average Population Per Outpost - Alliance's population divided by total outposts held.

Alliance	Coaltn	Players	Systems	PPS	Outposts	PPO
Legion of Death	DRF	1131	122	9.2	38	29.7
Solar Fleet	DRF	1058	69	15.3	19	55.6
White Noise	DRF	1438	87	16.5	25	57.5
Red Alliance	DRF	1938	98	19.7	38	51
Razor Alliance	NC	2097	52	40.3	25	83.8
Magesta	NC	2808	50	56.1	18	156
Morsus Mihi	NC	3723	64	58.1	21	176.8
R.A.G.E.	NC	3773	52	72.5	15	251

The population disparity between key alliances of the two coalitions is pronounced, and the heavy correlation between population density and coalition suggests it's not a coincidence. By the pricking of my thumb, something causal this way comes.

This population to system count disparity is especially intriguing when you consider that the Northern Coalition (NC) and the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) are, for the moment, arguably the two most successful coalitions in New Eden. This may reflect an in-game process of natural selection, with the two coalitions proceeding down distinct, but equally successful paths, the sources of which go back to the two coalitions' approaches to the game in terms of finance and game-play style.

As a dedicated PvP organization, the DRF generates income via rents, ratting and moon mining; historically the primary means of making money in nullsec for PvP alliances. In this financial pattern, the highest value moons are usually reserved for the alliance's cash stream or allocated to favored corporations, leaving remainder for individual member or corporation use. Each of the DRF alliances maintains a rental alliance with extensive real-estate holdings that provide significant income flow to the parent alliance. While some PvP coalitions maintain a few Indi players who might engage in a bit of mining and manufacturing on the side, such activities are usually farmed out to the renter's alliance in order to limit the possibility of "carebear rot" within the PvP alliance proper. This leaves ratting anomalies as the primary source of income for pure PvP alliance/coalition pilots and their corporations.

The more systems a PvP alliance holds, the more income generation is possible for individual players within that alliance. Thus, a large number of systems held by a PvP alliance optimizes income for individual pilots, particularly if the pilots prefer to bypass less profitable anomalies and rat exclusively in Havens and Sanctums; the ratting opportunities with the highest value returned on time spent ratting.

The NC alliances, on the other hand, tend to have a sizable strand of carebear in their DNA and that gives them a wider range of options when it comes to income generation for individual pilots. While moon mining and ratting anomalies are a key source of income, belt mining mining, PI and industrial occupations are also engaged in my many corporations. Thus, an alliance's systems can be fully utilized by the resident player population allowing more players to gainfully occupy fewer systems. In effect this model allows for a more financially efficient use of space.

If you've followed large scale PvP actions by the two coalitions, you'll know that this difference in population density is reflected in their respective defensive strategies and tactics.

When faced by a tough invader, the DRF tends toward the rope-a-dope strategy. This involves falling back into their extensive real estate holdings, giving ground slowly, and waiting for enemy forces to tire of the sov warfare grind. Once that happens they move back on offense to reclaim their territory from the wearied foe. In employing this strategy, the DRF often invoke the historic invasions and subsequent retreats of enemies of Russia, such as Napoleon's disastrous retreat from Moscow, or the blunting and turning back of the German invasion during World War II at Stalingrad.

The NC alliances, on the other hand, typically leverage their denser population in defending its territory. As described in Galactic Settlers, while the NC alliances retain a solid core of PvP players, their fleets contain a relatively high percentage of "citizen" soldiers - players who are PvP capable in times of war but engage in "carebear" activities when the coalition is not on a war footing. While the conventional wisdom holds that the NC alliances are inferior to their nullsec enemies when it comes to individual and fleet PvP skills and experience, invaders of NC space tend to find themselves heavily outnumbered and under constant counter-pressure across all time zones. Thus NC opponents often complain of "blobbing" and deride the coalition as a "carebear" organization. However, over time the quality of NC pilots and fleet commanders has improved. While the coalition still leverages their numeric advantage, they have shown themselves to be capable of sophisticated and nuanced tactics with both conventional and capital fleets.

"But Mord," you're probably saying now, "While numbers are way sexy and the self-organizing patterns of MMORPG populations in virtual economies are endlessly fascinating, what does this have to do with the price of beer in Delve?"

Well, I'd like to believe that, like butterflies, self-organizing patterns of MMORPG populations in virtual economies need no excuse. Still, I'm glad you asked.

Recall that back around the turn of the year we talked about changes CCP is mulling over in order to create barriers to alliances cooperating and forming large-scale coalitions. Among the changes being considered is the elimination of Jump Bridges, which allow the rapid movement of an alliances' conventional (i.e. non-jump capable) fleets across their sovereign space; sort of like the roads of the old Roman republic. There's talk of changes to make the logistics of moving large volumes of goods more difficult and and introducing scarce, high-value resources in order to create incentives for conflict (because there's apparently a real scarcity of that in nullsec these days). The underpinning thought here is that creating barriers to cooperation, making the movement of goods and services more costly and creating new reasons to go to war with your neighbor is going to make nullsec a small alliance/small PvP friendly place.

But what if it doesn't?

The trouble is, this thinking assumes that a given set of changes will be universally bad for all coalitions. However, coalitions are unique entities, driven more by internal culture and player preferences than by CCP's software. They are human institutions, each with it's own character. And each will respond to changes introduced to the game in its own way, adapting to the degree its cultural DNA allows. Some large coalitions may indeed break down if such changes are introduced. Others, however, may thrive.

If there is safety in numbers in the new order, the more spatially compact and densely populated alliances of the NC may become the successful collaborative model in a post Jump-Bridge nullsec. No doubt the CCP designers wake in a cold sweat each night with nightmares of NC-like coalitions overrunning nullsec and turning it into one big group hug.

On the other had a DRF model, sporting a smaller, supercapital-intensive population spread out over a large geography may be more successful in a nullsec with less mobile conventional fleets. In that case we could see the rise of a nullsec populated by a large tenant class overseen by a small, PvP-elite landlord class.

There is an undeniable advantage to collaboration. It is a very human tendency, deeply etched into our genetic instruction set, and responsible to a large extent for our success as a species. Meanwhile, Eve is a collaboration-intensive game, and CCP cannot undo that without rewriting the game from the ground up. Coalitions themselves are evidence that players of the game will not be constrained by the organizational constructs in Eve's software, but will create new out-of-game constructs in order to achieve in-game goals.

Despite CCP's best efforts, coalitions are going to persist within Eve. Sweeping changes meant to break down large-scale coalitions may have the opposite effect; merely weakening less successful coalition models and making them prey for their more robust competitors resulting in a nullsec that is even less friendly to the small alliance than it is today.

By undertaking the extermination of the large coalition, CCP's designers may merely be leaning into the very punch they wish to avoid.

Guardian Angel

2011-03-10T10:29:00.000-08:00

'Listen. It's a tough universe. There's all sorts of people and things trying to do you, kill you, rip you off, everything. If you're going to survive out there, you've really got to know where your towel is."

Douglas Adams - The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

I don't often post about flying cartoon spaceships, but I can't let Rixx Javix and Laedy have all the fun all the time.

When I answer a CTA, more often than not I'll end up bringing a logistics ship. Flying a logistics boat can be more than a little intimidating. You're sort of like the medic in a World War II movie, running around in a battlefield with a BIG red cross on your front and back that practically screams "Shoot Me First! Shoot Me First!" to the enemy.

You go into combat with little in the way of speed or firepower at your disposal and surrounded by a fleet of heavy hitters. Yet, when battle is finally joined, you know the FC on the other side will have your demise very high on his list of things to do. If you're packing a flight of light drones you might get in on a kill or two, but in the overall scheme of things you're not there to collect kill-mails. It's a high risk job that doesn't pad your kill stats.

But, heck, I'm a giver.

Besides, flying logistics follows my first rule of getting on in your corporation or alliance: Be of use. In terms of ship cost to value delivered, logistics ships offer a high return on investment. Owing to their non-sexy mission, there are rarely as many of them in fleet as an FC would want. For that reason, the brave and selfless logistics pilots are welcome in almost any fleet. In addition to a warm welcome in fleet, many alliances will reimburse logistics lost in CTAs for more than the ship's market value. They know you're a prime target and want to make you're not shy about coming to the big fleet fights.

Up to now, with my skills slanted toward the Gallente as they are, I've been flying an Onieros for armor fleets. But the true flavor of the month for armor logis is the Guardian. I recently notched my Amarr cruiser skill to max so I can finally fly this little wonder (as well as a Zealot) which I'm presently fitting up for its maiden sortie.

Like the towel, in Douglas Adam's Hitchhiker's universe, the logistics ship is an accessory whose humble, innocuous and somewhat dull nature belies its importance. After all, nullsec's tough. There's all sorts of people and things trying to do you, kill you, rip you off, everything. If you're going to survive out there, you've got to know where your logistics pilots are.

Don't Panic

A Black Matter for the King

2011-03-08T05:00:00.000-08:00

Now, if these men do not die well, it will be a black matter for the king that led them to it;

- Shakespeare, Henry V

On February 21, a year after losing the Providence region and after a year of trying to take it back, Curatoris Veritatis Alliance's (CVA's) Aralis resigned the leadership of his alliance, passed control over to Leo D'Green, and said he was quitting Eve Online. In a farewell message, Aralis held forth as to why he'd been unable to re-take the Amarr Holy land from the infidel:

CCP have made it clear they have no intention of fixing Dominion and there is thus no hope that what I wanted to do can ever be done. I don’t mind a hard road, I’ve been struggling to keep things going and hope alive since Dominion hit. Trying to do something impossible is just stupid and I don’t wish to stray from the path in Eve and CCP have made it painfully obvious they don’t intend to fix Dominion.

In Eve, as in real life, turning hard times into good times often hinges on one's capacity for honest self-assessment. CVA's leadership has consistently come up short in this department. The "You don't understand CVA" excuse for bad decisions is heard so often from CVA's leadership that it could replace "Ammar Victor" as the alliance's rallying cry. Aralis' self-absolution and his attempt to pin his own failures of the last year on CCP continues this proud tradition.

As most of you know, the one-time lords of Providence were evicted from the region in the first quarter of 2010 by Against All Authorities (-A-) after an ill-considered decision to 'liberate' an -A- constellation CVA leaders considered part of the Amarr holy land.

I've detailed elsewhere how opportunity has knocked time and time again for CVA over the last year. Each time it dangled a chance to take back Providence under CVA's collective nose. Each time that alliance has failed to snatch it back. And they've failed in this regard because their leadership has not positioned or prepared them to do so.

Early on CVA took a 'last man standing' approach to recapturing Providence, the strategy being that they didn't have to take the region my main force of arms. They would remain in place, harassing the foe and wearing them down, until fortune turned on the enemy and dropped the region back into CVA's lap. After all, the reasoning seemed to go, nobody wants low-value Providence with the passion of CVA, so sheer persistence should allow CVA to simply outlast all other contenders for the region.

While griefing is a perfectly reasonable form of sov warfare, one still has to be able to hold such systems that come one's way. Time and again, by enemy missteps or outright gifts (on two occasions alliances abandoning the region gave whole constellations to CVA in order to aggravate third parties), Providence systems fell into CVA's hands. And time and again CVA was unable to hold onto them except in instances of enemy indifference.

Simply put, post-eviction CVA did not have or cultivate the skill and strength needed to defend nullsec space on its own.

Following its eviction, CVA systematically alienated every reliable ally at its disposal in exchange for short-term gains. This ensured that CVA would be limited to its own resources in the fight for Providence and that members and corporations departing former allies would be disinclined to join CVA. At a time when CVA should have been cultivating friends with the long game in mind, they were doing the precise opposite.

Rather than husbanding their resources and building up their sov warfare assets and skills, CVA insisted on squandering those resources in vain attacks on enemy systems and paying sovereignty fees on systems for which it received no strategic advantage, utility or financial returns. Instead of opening up secondary operations in an alternate nullspace location, which would have allowed them to generate the revenue, supercapital ships/skills and political connections needed to execute a successful nullsec sov campaign, CVA chose to operate solely in hostile Providence.

Where operations should have been carefully selected with an eye to honing their own pilots' skills and morale in exchange for damage to their enemies, CVA chose instead a constant grind of losing battles. Instead of wearing down the enemy, these fights gradually burned through CVA's resources and wore away their pilots' will to fight. By December of 2010, fully half of CVA's remaining 800 pilots were unwilling to leave lowsec in order to support nullsec operations.

In the end, Providence was not as worthless as CVA imagined, and the old doctrine of "nobody else wants it" proved to be flawed. Even after Against All Authorities (-A-) was overwhelmed by The Initiative, and the vassal alliances -A- placed in Providence after CVA's eviction had departed, new suitors came to court the region. Ev0ke and NC[DOT], both experienced sov warriors, landed in Providence having been pushed from their own former homes by even stronger enemies. With limited pilots and resources at its disposal and limited sov warfare capability, CVA was unable to hold its ground in the face of the newcomers and has been pushed from Providence altogether.

Happily for CVA, there may be better days ahead.

The alliance has not failscaded altogether in the face of recent events, and has found, ironically, a powerful patron in Against All Authorities. While pushed from Providence, CVA remains in Catch nullsec at the border of their holy land, acting as a buffer between -A- and Providence. Working with -A-, CVA should finally begin the long overdue rebuilding of their alliance and learn from their new mentors how to conduct a proper sov campaign.

With careful planning by Mr. D'Green, some help from -A- and a little luck, CVA will be prepared next time opportunity knocks. Then we may see the lords of Providence return.

From everything I've heard, Aralis is a well-intentioned and capable leader. I would truly love to give him a mulligan on CVA's misfortunes and let him lay the blame at the feet of Dominion and CCP. However, many of CVA's wounds over the last year were self inflicted; born of bad decisions, willful ignorance and a profound resistance to adapting to nullsec's new reality. As leader of CVA he bears responsibility for its fortunes. Change, as I've said before, is the only constant. And it is a leader's responsibility to navigate the strange seas that change portends.

The Human Factor - Eve Blog Banter 25

2011-03-02T16:33:00.000-08:00

Hello. I'm back.

Welcome to the twenty-fifth installment of the EVE Blog Banter, the monthly EVE Online blogging extravaganza created by CrazyKinux. The EVE Blog Banter involves an enthusiastic group of gaming bloggers, a common topic within the realm of EVE Online, and a week or so to post articles pertaining to the said topic. The resulting articles can either be short or quite extensive, either funny or dead serious, but are always a great fun to read! Any questions about the EVE Blog Banter should be directed to crazykinux@gmail.com. Check for other EVE Blog Banter articles at the bottom of this post!

This month's topic comes to us from @Tetraetc - "Tetra's EVE Blog" - who asks: "Have Alliances and the sovereignty system limited the amount of PVP and RP potential in Null sec? Imagine a Null Sec where anyone could build outposts wherever. Would the reduction of the alliance game mechanic, and the removal of the sovereignty game mechanics (or the modifcation of it from Alliance level to Corp level for that matter) force more PVP into Null sec, or would giant power blocs like the NC still form themselves?"

There's this ongoing assumption working its way through the Eve community that large nullsec power blocs somehow reduce the amount of PvP going on in nullsec. This is another one of those ideas that a person in CCP has thrown out as a given with little in the way of supporting data. And everybody running an alliance that's presently on the losing end of the nullsec sov wars, and every pirate who's all big and bad in lowsec but is afraid to go play snatch and grab in nullsec (where even the carebears could bubble and cap-drop him and his jolly jack tars) start waving this supposed factoid about as if to say, "See, I'm not a loser! Nullsec's broken!"

Please.

This year has seen some of the most exciting, kick-ass, bitch-slapping sov warfare in the history of Eve. Intergalactic empires have crumbled. Legendary names have fallen. Alliances and coalitions never seen before in nullsec have arrived and shaken the thrones of the mighty. A coalition, largely derided by their enemies as a bunch of carebears, has everyone trembling in their anti-gravity boots. There have been last minute plot twists, spying and plotting worthy of a Le Carre novel and double-dealings that would have done Machiavelli proud.

And this is only post-Dominion year one.

Instead of the dull old days when the big boys sat fat, happy and neigh impregnable in their space, the nullsec map is wildly fluid with change. For the first time, alliance space has to be actively defended, and the space you take has a cost component. Perfect? Of course not. But we have a much more interesting nullsec than we've seen for some time.

There's plenty of PvP going on in nullsec. How much depends on how you define PvP.

And that brings us to "the blob". As near as I can figure, the a blob is any formation of ships that significantly outnumbers your formation of ships - especially if their formation just handed your formation their collective ass. I'm sure Custer was a big opponent of blobs about midway through the Battle of the Little Bighorn. Somehow the well-established doctrine of overwhelming force, standard issue thinking in modern warfare, is lost on many Eve players who want the rise and fall in intergalactic empires to be played out via small gang warfare rather than the clashing of vast space armadas.

New Eden has plenty of space that supports sharp, quick fleet combat using small to medium sized gangs. It is the principle type of combat employed in lowsec and is frequently exercised in nullsec as well. However, there must be a place for epic large-scale space conflict as well.

Now, a lot of people are hand-wringing because small alliances can't go out and stake their claim in nullsec. This is plainly not true. There are a number of small alliances that maintain small holdings in nullsec.

"But Mord," I hear you say. "Those are all vassals of larger alliances, or guests, or (worst of all) renters. They're alliances who hold space by dint of their relationship with a protecting alliance or coalition. I want to be able to take my hundred-player alliance into nullsec and hold my space by sheer force of arms."

I hate to burst your bubble, but human aren't wired that way. Our history is, for the most part, the big guy rolling over the little guy. The little guy's defense against this has often been to seek out a patron who can intimidate the barbarians who are at the gates. With a little luck, the patron doesn't turn out to be more of a threat than the barbarians. Historic feudal systems the world over are deeply rooted in this basic human dynamic. Sooner or later, the little dog seeks shelter in the shadow of the big dog. And, as long as Eve is a sandbox, there's no way you're getting around it.

To a certain extent, the coalition concept is an extention of this and illustrates that Eve is shaped as much by its players as CCP's software designers. There's no coalition mechanic in Eve. There's not even a commonly agreed-upon definition for it. For example I define coalition as

...a collection of alliances that choose to closely coordinate their foreign and defense (and possibly trade and industrial) policies on an ongoing basis for the common good. In essence, they operate as a loosely coupled macro-alliance.

Other people would call alliances having a non-aggression pact (NAP) a coalition, however I believe that's too loose a definition. Mutual defense pacts come closer to (and, in fact, are often the first stage of) a proper coalition as I define them, but still don't rise to the level of coordination I use in defining a coalition.

Now, coalitions aren't something CCP designed. They are a product of the sandbox and have evolved within the player communities. They are a player invention that's grown up over time in order to overcome limitations in the Alliance mechanic and to establish social and administrative constructs not supported by CCP's software. Working in coordination with a well-run coalition, alliances can overcome weaknesses and vulnerabilities CCP has allowed to persist in the Alliance mechanics.

Since CCP doesn't control coalition mechanics, they're unable to nerf them. All they can do is to attempt to impose a cost on cooperation and, in the December CSM minutes, that was the direction they seemed inclined to take. But the monkey-wrench in those gears are the players themselves. In order to create barriers high enough to deter players from developing new "out of Eve" means of cooperating on a large scale, CCP would have to completely remake almost every aspect of nullsec; a strategy fraught with unexpected outcomes and financial risk.

Eve has become a complex game, comprised of many interacting mechanics. Changing one mechanic introduces a cascade of possibilities elsewhere in the game. Because of the Eve player's penchant for innovation, changes to the game can have much broader repercussions than envisioned by designers and developers. Over a year later, impacts of the Dominion sovereignty changes on nullsec are still making themselves known. Layering additional large-scale changes on top of those may be ill-advised.

Small changes in nullsec may be called for. However, despite the current panic about nullsec devolving to one big blue carebear hug-fest, that's a very small-probability event. The flip-side of the human tendency for cooperation, is the human tendency for war. Each drives the other and feeds on the other, rising and falling in a tidal manner - ebb and flow. I quite guarantee that, six months from now, the political landscape of nullsec will be very different from what we see today.

In Eve nullsec, as in real life, the only constant is change.

Other participants in Eve Blog Banter 25:

The Azure Sea

2011-02-27T05:54:00.000-08:00

As I mentioned a few entries ago, my short term plans included a beach. Ol' Mord's planet-side, looking out over an azure sea with distant islands on the horizon. The orbital up-link here is a bit spotty, but I'm finally able to post a place holder.

For those of you who aren't aware, I've posted an article at Eve-Tribune on the importance of public relations and the social network in New Eden. Ignore the last paragraph in brackets. That's Finn, the editor tacking his two cents onto the end of my column. Hellofa guy, Finn, and smart as they come. Just a bit wanting in the courtesy department.

When I get back in a few days I'll be posting something for the current blog banter, a piece on the current goings-on in CVA (you knew I couldn't let that lie), and Part Two on renting in nullsec.

Fly safe 'til I get back.

A Renter's Guide to Nullsec: Part 1

2011-02-22T05:14:00.000-08:00

The entry costs to the nullsec sovereignty game are quite high. Taking and holding of space requires skills, ships, infrastructure and money that most highsec and lowsec corporations and alliances with nullsec ambitions don't have. Further, as I mentioned last month in The Initiative at Bay, sovereignty warfare is an acquired taste. Taking and holding space is the stuff of classic space opera in concept, but in reality it can be hard, frustrating work and is not for everybody.

Nonetheless, nullsec's siren song of adventure and untold riches calls to many high and lowsec corporations who are not, as yet, the stuff of which galactic overlords are made. Fortunately for them, conquest is not the only road to nullsec. With the coming of Dominion sovereignty rules, holding nullsec space became a cash intensive business. Alliances must pay a sovereignty fee for each system over which they claim ownership. The more upgrades a system has in place, the higher the monthly sovereignty fee. This means in order to hold space, a nullsec alliance must have a cash flow.

This need for cash has created a robust nullsec rental market. For most alliances, renting some of their sovereign systems is an important source of income. For the aspiring nullsec denizen, renting space allows their corporation to get their foot in the door and build a network of nullsec contacts without as much up-front commitment. This is a particularly attractive option for industrial corporations who want to work in nullsec, but are not steely-eyed PvPers.

Rental Alliances:

Many nullsec alliances operate separate alliances to facilitate the renting of their space. This allows the sov holding alliance (or landlord alliance) to manage their renters using Eve's alliance construct while keeping their renters outside of the sov holding alliance's organization proper.

There are two major reasons for segregating renters like this. First of all, as the purpose of renting is income generation, the bar for adding a corporation to the renter alliance is usually lower than it is for entering the alliance proper. Keeping renters in a separate alliance lowers the chance of a spy getting access to the sov-holding alliance's communication channels. Further, many sov holding alliances want to avoid "carebear rot". This is a phenomenon much dreaded by nullsec alliances in which too many industrial players, whose needs and concerns are often in conflict with their PvP-oriented brethren, are admitted directly to the sov-holding alliance, causing a softening of the alliance's PvP orientation and focus.

There are some nullsec alliances that will admit renting alliances independent of their own renters alliance but most first-time renters end up joining a renters alliance.

Know Your Needs and Shop Around:

Do your homework. Do not jump into bed with the first renter's alliance that crooks a finger at you. As I said, this is a rental market and should be approached as one. This means you should be doing some comparison shopping. You'll find that there's a lot of variation in the market both in terms of rents, how rents are calculated, service fees and activity restrictions.

If you are a corporation with industrial interests you'll want to rent in a less trafficked part of nullsec where you can ply your trade without being constantly interrupted by raiding parties and roaming gangs with ganking on their minds. On the other hand, if you're an aspiring PvP corporation you'll want to be near the action. A quiet backwater system is going to be a poor fit for you. If ratting will be your primary means of earning income, you'll want to avoid regions with low-value pirates and anomalies. However, if mining or industry is your primary aim, you might be able to get a deal on such a system which will have less appeal for ratters and PvPers.

Rents:

Rents from one renter alliance to the next can vary wildly. Landlord alliances are typically run by PvPers with limited time or patience for business. They tend to base rents and fees on what they want or need to earn off systems rather than what the market will bear. As a rule, they don't keep tabs on market prices. Consequently, rents from one nullsec alliance to the next can seem almost arbitrary at times.

For example, when I wrote Galactic Landlords back in October, one alliance's rent scheme for drone region systems ran something like this:

- Base rental for all systems is 300 million ISK per week
- For each level of sovereignty a system holds, add an additional 100 million ISK per week "sovereignty tax'

This translated to a monthly rent of 1.6 billion for the least profitable Sov 1 system in the drone regions. A Sov 5 system there would have run you 3.2 billion per month.

On the other hand, I have encountered much more reasonable rents, running in the 500 million to a billion ISK per month for systems in relatively quiet parts of nullsec. I've seen rents as low as 200 million per month.

The point is that there is a lot of range in nullsec rents and you have to approach your nullsec enterprise as an entrepreneur. As many rental alliance reps will tell you when your eyes pop out at their monthly rates, there's no reason a good corporation can't make enough ISK in a good system to cover that rent.

The question is, however, not how much rent you can afford to pay, but what rent will optimize your profit margin. Your goal is to move as quickly as possible past the break even point and transition from making ISK to pay your landlord to making ISK to pay yourselves.

Service Fees and Activity Restrictions:

In addition to rents, many rental alliances charge for services like ore refining, manufacturing and research/copy slots well over and above what you're accustomed to in high and lowsec NPC stations. Taxes on Jump Bridge use, monthly fees for POS anchoring and docking fees are less usual, but not unheard of. Ask about them up front, and be sure to keep them in mind when estimating your costs.

In addition to higher costs, a rental alliance may impose restrictions on what activities you may do. They may restrict the deployment of POS refineries, labs and manufacturing facilities in order to ensure traffic for their own fee generating station facilities. They may forbid the export of high-value minerals or refined ores in order to promote local refining and manufacture. The bottom line is that you want to know this before you've ponied up your rent and gone to the expense and trouble of moving your corporation out into in the lawless deep.

Understand What You're Getting:

Get a clear understanding of what resources you have exclusive access to in systems you're renting. If you're paying a premium for a high-end system, you'll want to be sure that it's not open season for all the neighbors on your rich ores and anomalies.

Likewise, understand how system improvements are handled. If you go to the cost and trouble of installing and iHub, building a station or otherwise improving the value of the landlord's real estate, you'll want to know how that affects your rental agreement and what your rights are viz the aforementioned improvements.

Understand your home defense obligations. Most sov-holding alliances provide protection only in the event of a serious sovereignty challenge or a sovereignty dispute among renting corporations. Occasionally renters participate in landlord calls-to-arms, pick-up gate camps or fleet operations. However, it is rarely required for renters and, due to the aforementioned security risks coupled with landlord contempt for the quality of renter PvP, some alliances actively discourage the practice.

You may be required to participate in rental alliance home defense operations, or organize a posse with the neighbors to trap some pesky roamers looking for easy ganks. But, unless you're an aspiring PvP corporation, hunkering down and avoiding giving up easy kills is the common response to random incursions.

Negotiate:

Above all, don't be afraid to negotiate, particularly if you bring skills or assets of value to the table. The worst thing the landlord can do is say 'no'. OK, technically that's not true. The worst thing they can due usually involves your corpse floating in the vacuum of space. On the bright side, in that case you wake up in your clone vat knowing said landlord is not someone with whom you care to do business.

Seriously though, some rental alliance reps may get impatient or start yawning, or lack the power to cut you a special deal. However, this is business and you have to look out for your best interests. It's not out of line to ask the representative if he can match a deal offered by another rental alliance. Again, do your homework. The more you know about going rates and agreements among rental alliances, the better armed you'll be for this discussion. Don't whine, get snotty or try to strong arm the rental alliance's rep. Be polite. Be professional.

Ask Around:

As you narrow down your options, make a point of contacting corporations in the renter alliances you're considering and getting their take on the landlord and life in the alliance space. If a landlord treats his tenants badly, reneges on agreements, has misrepresented his policies, or is outright hiding something, this is a good way to find out up front. Likewise, if you find everybody's raving about the landlord and the renter alliance is one big happy family, you might consider paying higher rents in order to to get in on that situation.

Data, Data, Data:

Alas, to my knowledge, no one maintains a table of renter alliances rents and terms, or ratings of landlords. So there's no central clearing house of information to guide renters new to nullsec, or existing renters looking to improve their circumstances. It would be an interesting project and the nullsec rent market is one that would benefit from the competition that sort of information sharing and transparency would generate. If one of you are inclined to take up that challenge, it's an effort that would likely get a lot of attention and appreciation from the Eve community. Do let me know if you take that project on or know someone who already has.

Until such a database comes along, doing the research will be up to the individual renter. It's a lot of work, but it'll go a long way toward saving you money, pain and sorrow in the long run. It's the sort of due diligence you owe your corporate buddies if you're going to lead them down the road to nullsec.

Unanticipated Macro Level Outcomes

2011-02-15T04:51:00.000-08:00

While my last post centered on CCP Greyscale's version of a nullsec utopia (petty kingdoms at constant war, populations clustered around strategic strong points, scarce resources, transport and trade as high cost, high risk activities and high barriers to cooperative action) much of the reaction to the posting focused in on logistics in the form of jump bridges and jump freighters.

And that's not surprising given Grayscale's expressed opinion that "all this [logistics] stuff" has made players lives too easy. I've held forth elsewhere on the outright elimination of jump bridges without a profound corresponding nerf to supercapital ships. However, Greyscale should also bear in mind that CCP aggressively pushed the Jump Freighter at an Eve community whose initial reception to the ship was tepid at best. A little bit of background is called for on that subject.

The Jump Freighter was first introduced to New Eden in the November 2007 Trinity expansion. According to CCP Nozh, Jump Freighters were developed by CCP to be "the ultimate low security and 0.0 transport ships". However, a slight snag was discovered soon after their initial release.

Nobody wanted one.

The original Jump Freighters were a bit faster and more agile than conventional t1 freighters and had 20% more hit points in each of the hull, armor and shield categories. However, while able to use both jump drives and star gates, the original Jump Freighter had only 30% of its t1 cousin's cargo capacity. Not so bad, you say. Certainly better than trying to schlep that much freight across low/null sec via many industrial or a transport runs.

Trouble is, those crazy kids in the Eve sandbox had already come up with workarounds for the low/null sec schlepping problem. By the of the Trinity release, players were already using cargo fitted dreadnoughts and Rorquals for moving large volumes of freight. Such ships were nearly as good at jump haulage as the new Jump Freighter, were cost competitive, and could be re-tasked for their original purpose when not doing freight work - a very important consideration given capital ship costs. Despite the Jump Freighter's ability to use star gates and enter high sec, which the other capitals could not, the cost/benefit trade offs weren't enough to make Joe Capsuleer shell out the big pile of ISK required to buy one.

Frustrated by market forces, CCP could have simply cut bait on the Jump Freighter; leaving it as it was, or retiring the ship altogether. Instead, the CCP designers (who tend toward escalating commitment - see Incarna) doubled down. They buffed the Jump Freighter with abandon to increase demand by giving it a competitive advantage over its jump-capable competition. They upped the Jump Freighter's cargo capacity by 25%, made it more agile, survivable and fuel efficient than its first iteration. They boosted Jump Freighter production by giving their blueprints a maximum of ten production runs. I don't think they worried overly about the impact of these improvements on the game. After all, this was just a freighter, not a combat ship.

The buff worked like a charm. A bit more than three years later, the Jump Freighter is standard equipment for low and null security operations. It has profoundly changed the economies of low and nullsec - as CCP should have known it would.

Now they're unhappy with it.

CCP has a tendency to introduce changes without thinking through their long term ramifications. The evolution of the Jump Freighter is a case in point. For all his talk of "desirable macro level outcomes" and "the higher systemic view", CCP Greyscale doesn't seem to be putting much thought or serious research into how his proposed changes would impact Eve's economy, politics and game play. He sees only the input factors and outcomes he wants to see, forgetting that Eve is a sandbox where even modest changes, like a Jump Freighter, will be seized on by players and change the game in ways the designer never intended.

At the bottom of CCP Nozh's post there's a very interesting statement:

Of course [Jump Freighters] are still a very role specific and expensive ship [that] should be considered a tool for corporations and alliances rather than individual players.

In other words, CCP assumed at the time that Jump Freighters were such a big ticket item that they would be out of the reach of the individual player. Of course we all know there are any number of individual players with Jump Freighters in their garage today. Make a ship attractive enough and those pesky players will find a way to afford it.

Likewise combat-oriented capital ships were supposed to be big ticket items exceedingly hard for individual players to afford - supercapitals even more so. However, by making capitals a must-have ship for null and lowsec and turning supercapitals into an "I Win" button unless countered by a larger force of supercapitals, CCP has turned the market for these ships white-hot. Much of nullsec's production capacity is focused on them as corporations, alliances and coalitions work feverishly to increase the number of supercapital pilots and ships at their disposal.

The proliferation of supercapitals is so out of control that they are commonly used for ratting by PvE players. Titans, once rare enough that the number of them in game were actively tracked, have become commonplace. Where the loss of a capital ship used to be a profound hardship, they are now considered a disposable item and their loss only causes comment when it occurs in large numbers.

It is interesting that when CCP Greyscale speaks of "desirable macro level outcomes" and "the higher systemic view" he does so almost exclusively in terms of Jump Freighters and Jump Bridges. While these have had an impact on the game at the systemic level and adjustments may be warranted, their impact has been neither as sudden nor as profound as that of supercapitals, which have single-handedly reshaped the economy and political landscape of nullsec. Still, Greyscale is profoundly tentative when it comes to more than minor tweaks on those ships. This blind spot in his higher higher systemic view of Eve is troublesome. It is a leading indicator of other such blots on CCP's field of vision; each a guaranteed driver of unanticipated macro level outcomes.

Design driven by wishful thinking does not end well in the Eve sandbox.

By now one would think that CCP's designers would be aware that there's been an acceleration of unintended consequences resulting from changes introduced over the last few years. It has not, by all appearances, made them more cautious. If anything, its made them impatient and prone toward "macro-level" changes without stopping to consider how the human factor in the Eve sandbox will play hob with their intentions and planned outcomes.

CCP Greyscale's Vision

2011-02-11T05:12:00.000-08:00

The harder we can make logistics, the better for the game viewed as an abstract system. It would be much better for the game if we got rid of freighters, but we have to balance what is good for the game at a higher systemic level with making the player's lives a living hell. Forcing people to do convoys with lots of industrials would, from a higher level systemic view, be awesome. But for the individual players, it would suck balls.

[CCP has] gone [too far] in the direction of making players lives easy – we've got jump freighters and jump bridges and all this [stuff] – and I think there is an agreement here [at CCP] that we want to pull back from that. We would like to pull back as far as we can get away with. But how far can we go?” The underlying point is the need to get a balance between avoiding frustration and getting desirable macro-scale outcomes.

--CCP Greyscale - CSM Minutes, December 2010

Desirable macro-scale outcomes.

It's one of the things that CCP holds fairly tight to the vest. Greyscale spends a lot of time talking in terms of what is good for "the game at an abstract level", or "a higher level systemic view". "Desirable macro scale outcomes" sounds quite impressive. What it actually means, however, is "Play the game we think you should play, not the game you want to play."

If you sort through Greyscale's comments in the CSM minutes, you get hints of what he thinks an "awesome" nullsec would look like.

Alliances would be very small from a geographic standpoint. Dominion has made a good start on the alliance reduction program in its first year and I think we'll see further reductions in the second year. The fall of some larger territorial alliances such as Atlas, IT Alliance and Against All Authorities has resulted in a redistribution of their former space, largely into smaller parcels. The Initiative attempted to recreate -A-'s expansive empire and failed primarily because it was more space than they could control. The Drone Russian Federation has quietly scooped up large swaths of territory lost by those alliances. Given their current PvP population, I'd say they're occupying more space than they can hold should they be attacked on multiple fronts.

What the optimal size of an alliance is remains to be seen. There's a lot of experimentation going on, however CCP seems too impatient to let that play out. Likely because of the rise of the coalition.

No matter how small alliances get, as long as they can band together effectively to protect their collective interests, Greyscale and company are going to be unhappy. They appear to favor small, pocket kingdoms incessantly fighting over scarce resources to moderate-sized alliances collaborating in a manner that supports industry, trade and a common defense.

Greyscale wants logistics to be hard. Really hard. So in addition to small kingdoms at constant war with each other, his desirable macro scale outcomes involve making trade in nullsec a cost and labor intensive activity, fraught with risk.

Now. Petty kingdoms at constant war. Populations clustered around strategic strong points.Scarce resources. Transport and trade as high cost, high risk activities. High barriers to cooperative action.

Sounds like Europe around 400 - 500 CE. In effect, CCP Greyscale's nullsec wonderland is a highly dysfunctional, post-apocalyptic society that has suffered a major economic collapse. Cool to read about. Not a fun place to live unless you're the local strong man pissing all over the peasants. And even then....

As Dr. Eyjólfur might be able to explain to his game designer, robust economies require institutions that keep the means of production and transportation secure. CCP did not provide those institutions to nullsec, so the players have evolved them over time. Despite the insecure nature of nullsec, a player can move with relative safety within the boundaries of space with which his alliance has a non-aggression pact. Dangers are there, but the coalition works together to minimize them. This makes some nullsec coalitions a good place to do business. In fact an ongoing concern with lowsec is the tendency of non-PvP players to leap over lowsec, where space is nominally less dangerous but harder to control, directly to nullsec.

Take away the ability of nullsec players to provide those institutions and the producers and traders will leave nullsec for places where they can ply their trades. This is what happens when businesses can no longer operate in safety. Some brave souls will remain as high risk can result in high profits, however the local economies will become largely non-functional.

It would certainly be awesome from a systemic level if Iceland had to go back to importing goods from off-shore using Viking era Knarr ships. Especially if we forced them to sail through various choke points heavily populated by pirates. Mind, it would totally "suck balls" for people living in Iceland. But then, they chose to live out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

If someone in the EU suggested that scenario were a desirable macro-scale outcome, I'm sure a few folk in Reykjavik might object.

Fiddler's Return

2011-02-10T05:56:00.000-08:00

There are opportunity costs to writing. Time spent writing a story, or a blog or even a tweet can't be spent on another project. Despite a number of dedicated readers who are all generous with their feedback, one sometimes sits on this side of the blogging software and wonders if what you're writing matters, or if your words disappear into the digital abyss once they've passed through that small circle of friends. All the while, other projects beckon.

In deciding to close up Fiddler's Edge, a key consideration was whether or not the blog delivered - whether it stood out in what is, after all, a field crowded with talent. I'm aware, as I've mentioned elsewhere, that Fiddler's Edge is a bit of an outlier when it comes to blogs - high tea in a world of digital rave parties. As Parity Bit suggested in a recent post, I was very much of two minds with regard to continuing The Edge, and used Crazy's selection process as a tie-breaker. And I have to apologize to Crazy (with a C) if disclosing that has caused him any grief. I couldn't do what he does so well and have a lot of respect for his contributions to the Eve player community.

I expected Fiddler's Edge to quickly sink without much of a trace, so the reader response caught me by surprise. Then, this morning I received an email from CK, mirroring his very generous blog post.

You all have me, as they say, at a disadvantage.

So, I'll hunt down the key and reopen the offices at the Fiddler's Edge think tank. Jenny has, alas, moved on, but you'll be hearing from her by way of her larger stage. Posts will likely be less frequent as I owe time to those other projects I've mentioned and Fiddler's Edge will eventually merge with the larger web site I described. However, I'll keep door open, the lights on and do my best to justify your kind support.

Once more, with feeling: Fiat lux.

Retrospective

2011-02-09T04:49:00.000-08:00

Looking back over the last year of writing about New Eden, I thought I'd revisit a few of the posts on Fiddler's Edge that stand out over time.

In some cases, they are of special interest to the Eve community and are referenced well past their original publication date. The Carebears Who Killed Atlas is one of those. Combining the dramatic collapse of a storied alliance with insights regarding greed and corruption, it continues to draw hits, even today, five months after its original publication date.

Tickling the Dragon's Tail is a much younger piece, but has rapidly risen to the number two spot on the overall Fiddler's Edge hit chart. It was a tidy piece of analysis that predicted the revelations of hollowing-out and internal conflicts that were occurring within IT Alliance.

Player churn over the Incarna upgrades continue to roil the waters of New Eden, even as they are released. That accounts in large part for the ongoing popularity of Fashonista, the first and only fiction post at The Edge. The story introduced Aldo, fashion rock star. It also anticipated fashion upgraded strategic cruisers with 10,000 m3 walk-in closets, motorized hanger rail systems and on-board dry-cleaning. Totally lock and load, baby.

Noblesse Oblige, Galactic Settlers and Galactic Landlords have long tails as well, garnering hits well after their publication dates. Taken together they serve as a primer on key nullsec relationships between landlord and renter, and lord and vassal. They also reinforce the importance of the personal relationship in nullsec alliances - a key and oft overlooked driver of events in New Eden.

Finally, there are two posts that deserve mention because they're personal favorites.

Vox Populi was a reflection on epic player rage that followed the announcement that CCP would be providing minimal upgrades to the ships-in-space part of Eve in order to focus on Dust 514 and Incarna. It was fun to write and the only Fiddler's Edge post that garnered a comment from Crazy Kinux.

Finally, there's The Amoral World of Diplomacy. An early piece that events have long since passed by, it no longer receives many hits. However, this was the post where Fiddler's Edge found its purpose and its voice, and I look back on it with special affection.

Epilogue

2011-02-08T04:04:00.000-08:00

First of all, thanks to all the regular readers of The Edge. Your kind words and encouragement over the span of Fiddler's Edge has made the work worthwhile.

As I wrote last October, in Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, I began writing about nullsec as a courtesy to some friends in Providence who were having trouble filtering forum spam in order to get timely news and analysis viz ongoing hostilities. Since then, a lot of options have emerged that fill that need, including Hallan Turrek's Eve News Now, the newly revived Eve-Tribune, a wealth of Eve Online podcasts, thoughtful bloggers like the sage Kirith Kodachi and, of course, Eve News 24.

In attempting to carve out a place for Fiddler's Edge in the Eve Blogosphere, I've focused on in-depth content delivered at least twice a week, which takes a good bit of time and research (not to mention a lot of hand-wringing) to write. The readers of Fiddler's Edge have rewarded that time and effort by bumping this site to over 6,000 page hits per month. Thanks to all - you're the best - and the reason my work days usually start at 5:00 AM .

Having said all that, I've a number of other writing projects that have been on the back-burners while Fiddler's Edge was in flight (more on those in a moment). I've been thinking this last month or so that it might be time to take The Edge off the stove and put other efforts on high boil. Frankly, I was a bit torn about it.

So I decided to let Krazy Kinux make the call for me.

As most of you know, his Krazyness is the patron saint of Eve bloggers. One of his means of promoting the Eve blogosphere is The Eve Blog Pack, where he provides linkage to the blogs he considers the best of the best. He recently posted that he was revising the list and that Fiddler's Edge was one of the blogs under consideration for inclusion in the pack.

I decided that would be the test. If Fiddler's Edge had improved enough to make Krazy's blog pack I would continue the work. If it fell short, it would be time to move on. Krazy announced his new blog pack yesterday and, as most of you know, Fiddler's Edge remains unworthy. The arbiter has spoken.

The good news is that Fiddler's Edge is going to expand its horizons. A new web site with a broader focus on things Science Fiction/Fantasy is in the works. I've asked Rixx Javix to do the graphics and am working on a content and web-page outline. Expect that it will have a special page dedicated to Eve Online, with links to Eve blogs, podcasts and general cartoon spaceship content. I may even hold forth now and again on critical events in New Eden.

I know many of you are accomplished writers in your own rights, and if some of you are interested in providing content please feel free to contact me at my mordfiddle gmail account.

A few things before I go regarding my prior post:

À la Recherche Du Temps Perdu: An inside joke directed at fans of Jenny, who will recall her last run-in with a non-Proust-reading United Express delivery man. One of my back burnered projects is the first in what I hope will be a series of short stories featuring Jenny post Fiddler's Edge. She's wanted a larger stage for some time. Now she'll have her shot.

Fiat Lux: Let there be light. Always. Read between the lines. Ask inconvenient questions. Light candles before you curse the darkness. Go forth and illuminate.

And, once again, thanks for all your kind support.

Interlude Terminalis - Fiddler's End

2011-02-07T13:03:00.000-08:00

"That's the last of them," said Jenny, my research librarian.

She closed and locked the seal on the climate controlled shipping unit. A burly United Express delivery man picked up the silver, suitcase sized box and stacked it on top of four others just like it. He tipped them back on a dolly and wheeled them out though the front door at Fiddler's Edge and down the hallway, whistling as he worked. I noticed a dog-eared copy of À la Recherche Du Temps Perdu in his back pocket.

The offices at Fiddlers Edge were empty. Books, office furniture, computers and all fixtures of a think-tank had been taken away and put into storage. Nothing left but dust bunnies, the odd paper clip and a spent shell casing. I walked to a window that looked out on the National Mall. Jenny followed me and our footfalls on the wooden floors echoed hollowly in the cavernous room.

We stood there together, watching nothing in particular for a while.

"You have plans?" she asked, finally.

I nodded.

"I have plans," I said. "The most immediate involves a week on an island in the Caribbean. After that I have a few writing projects in mind."

"Always with the writing," she said with, I thought, a slight strain in her voice.

"Always with the writing," I affirmed quietly.

She kept her back to me, apparently making a careful study of the Smithsonian Castle.

"They packed up the tissues," I observed after a short silence.

"Shutup," she answered through a low laugh.

She pivoted away from me and strode to the door. Her purse lay on the floor next to it. She picked it up, closed her eyes, took a deep breath and puffed it out again. Then she turned back to me, eyes dry and, as ever, under control.

"Did the National Archives get back to you?" I asked her.

"Yes," she said. "Some guy named Sturlison." She raised an eyebrow at me. "He's head of Special Acquisitions?"

"Yes," I said. "That's the guy. I gave him your name. Said you might be coming available."

"You know there's no Special Acquisitions department at the Archives."

"Oh there is," I said. "They're just not listed on the website."

"Or in the budget," she observed.

"Well," I said with a grim smile, "Think of it as the only covert ops unit made up entirely of librarians. Their special acquisitions are very special. Sometimes dangerously so. And the acquisition part of it is often...challenging."

She held her breath and asked, "Is there gun-play?"

"At times," I nodded. "And worse."

"You," she said, "Are the best boss ever."

This time I'm sure there were tears.

She turned away again, walking out the office. I heard the elevator ding its arrival, and then I was alone.

I took my coat and hat off of the hooks next to the door. It was a cold day in DC, raw and overcast. I pulled on the coat and checked the pocket for my keys. Then, as I settled the hat on my head, I took the doorpull in my hand and gave the office one last look.

Then I pulled close the heavy oak door to Fiddler's Edge.

Fiat lux

Size Matters

2011-02-07T04:28:00.000-08:00

With IT Alliance circling the drain, Czech Lion of Eve News 24 has turned his attention to branding the Northern Coalition (NC) as the next big nullsec bugaboo. Hegemony by the Northern Coalition, he holds, threatens to unbalance the great game altogether.

However, if you've taken a look at the nullsec sovereignty maps recently, a startling fact jumps out.

The Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their renting affiliates are in possession of over half of nullsec.

As of yesterday, Legion of Death, Red Alliance, Solar Fleet and White Noise own between them 359 systems. Their renter affiliates, Shadow of Death, Red Associates, Solar Wing and White Angels hold an additional 358 systems.

That's a total of 717 systems controlled solely by the DRF.

If we look at the traditional NC membership, Morsis Mihi, Razor Alliance, Magesta Empire and R.A.G.E alliance, they collectively control 211 systems, less than half those owned by the DRF and affiliates. By scraping together systems belonging to the smaller NC members and "guest" alliances, we can tick that number up to about 275. Even adding the Deklein Coalition's Goonswarm and Test Alliance Please Ignore to the NC numbers adds only 102 additional systems for a total of 377 - about half the systems controlled by the DRF. In fact, even if you dropped the DRF renter affiliates out of the picture entirely (the Northern Coalition don't employ the traditional renter aliance model used by the DRF), the core DRF alliance systems are close to parity with the NC and DC together, 359 to 377.

Where these numbers get really interesting is when you look at them in the context of alliance population.

The population of the core DRF alliances number 5524 as of this writing. That means the DRF has roughly 15.5 players for each system to which they hold sovereignty. The core NC alliances, on the other hand, have 11,918 players controlling 211 systems. That's 56.5 players per system owned.

Now, one must bear in mind the differences in organizational structures between Northern Coalition and the Drone Russians. As described above, the DRF uses the renter alliance model favored by traditional PvP alliances in order to create a firewall between the alliance and renter organizations. This allows them to maximize rent revenues as they can adopt looser security standards for admitting corporations to the renter alliances than for the PvP alliance.

In the Northern Coalition, renters are carefully selected and incorporated into the member alliances or invited into the coalition as small, independent "guest" alliances who participate in the defense of NC space in exchange for the space they hold.

While the DRF renter alliances have larger populations than the controlling PvP alliances, even they fall well short of the high player to system ratio of the Northern and Deklein coalitions. Adding the DRF Renter systems and population numbers to the equation only increases the DRF player to system ratio to about 22 players per system.

One item that's largely escaped notice during the collapse of IT Alliance has been White Noise and Red Alliance going about and quietly taking space from the conflict's losers, such as The Initiative, and adding it to their own real estate portfolios.

In effect, half of nullsec has become a massive ISK farm feeding into the relatively small population that is the DRF proper.

The Hollow Men

2011-02-04T13:31:00.000-08:00

This is the way the world ends
This is the was the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper

- T. S. Eliot

To nearly all outward appearances, the debacle at 6VDT-H has paralyzed IT Alliance's command structure. Alliance operations are not being announced or coordinated. Calls for assistance from renters and allies alike go unanswered. Fountain and Querious are being gobbled up with little or no resistance.

Babylon 5 and Nulli Secunda are the latest of IT's renters/allies to pull up stakes. Babylon has dropped sov in all but one Querious and two Fountain systems. Their former holdings in Fountain's Skaven constellation have been snapped up by Deklein Coalition member Test Alliance Please Ignore (Test), while Fallen Angels Alliance (Fall) has occupied Babylon's abandoned systems in the Querious 9NP-AR constellation. Nulli Secunda, under pressure from the new AtlasDOT alliance (which includes Bobby Atlas' Di-Tron Heavy Industries), has abandoned LI-BA0 constellation in Querious. Whether the two alliances will pull back into Delve or seek greener pastures elsewhere remains to be seen.

Pandemic Legion (PL), hired by IT alliance to harass the Deklein Coalition home systems, appears to be suffering from the IT Alliance's operational doldrums as well. Word leaking into the forums indicates IT has stopped paying PL for their services. The timing of this is particularly bad for Pandemic Legion given the recent loss of 80 billion ISK to internal theft and rumored member discontent with taking an IT Alliance contract in the first place.

However.

IT Alliance continues to avoid a failscade. While the Black Nova and Destructive Influence corporations have handed all their systems back to IT Alliance and appear headed for the door, they remain in the alliance as of this writing. IT has lost player population in a steady trickle since the departure of FinFleet and X13, but there doesn't appear to be a rush for the doors. Curious that, given the various leaks about IT dysfunction.

This suggests someone is at the controls in IT Alliance central slapping hands away from the panic button - keeping things calm and orderly despite the lack of outward communication.

It may be a case of attempting a passive defense where an active one has failed. Keeping a low profile and feeding rumors of dysfunction might be intended to bore the enemy into careless mistakes; cause them to stop to grab systems rather than entering Delve to administer a killing stroke. By not offering fights in regions already lost, IT may be gaining valuable time needed to replace the ships equipment lost at 6VDT-H and prepare the defense of Delve.

For now, Delve itself remains intact and that will be the test of matters. Until one of the invaders wanders up that way gives Delve a solid poke with a big stick, no one will know if they've got a hornets nest on their hands, or an empty, hollowed-out shell.

Storm Warnings in Delve

2011-02-02T04:53:00.000-08:00

As I wrote in SirMolle's Stand last week, the IT Alliance plan to turn the tide, both on the military and morale fronts, was dependent upon their ability to make Fountain the front line in the war against the Deklein Coalition. To that end, SirMolle directed his forces to make a stand in that place, keeping the enemy off the Delve Doorstep.

And it all went badly.

IT Alliance forces in Fountain staged themselves in 6VDT-H. Apparently believing they had time before Deklein coalition (DC) could organize themselves for a new assault, most of the IT forces were concentrated in the station and staging POS in that single system. Learning of this, Goonswarm's leadership quickly assembled a large force, and besieged the system. IT Alliance forces were largely caught in their station and POS, which the Deklein Coalition quickly "rapecaged", bubbling the station and POS locations to prevent warp outs and camping them heavily. Several break-outs were attempted to little avail and IT was apparently unable to call up and deploy additional forces to relieve the siege.

Their enemies effectively bottled up, the DC took 6VDT as well as the station system 7BX-6F next door, with little effective resistance.

Meanwhile, Against All Authorities (-A-) and Stain Empire, with pitch-ins from several other alliances have undertaken the reduction of Querious. -A- and the Fallen Angels alliance have taken two critical gateway systems in the region, 49-U6U and A2-V27 respectively. What is interesting in the Querious campaign is the relative lack of resistance to the invaders. Defenders calling for help from IT Alliance have received little in the way of response, let alone assistance.

Word on the street is that IT Alliance leadership, aware that several critical corporations, such as Destructive Influence (DICE.) are planning on departing the alliance, have realized they do not have the numbers to hold three regions. In that case, with the Fountain line broken and the Southern Russians invading Querious, it would make sense for SirMolle to cut loose those regions, pull his remaining forces back to Delve and set up a new line of defense there. IT Alliance corporations unwilling to deploy to Catch and Fountain these last months, may be more inclined to step up to the line if that line is on their home ground.

That would account for the phone ringing unanswered when Fountain and Querious based allies call. SirMolle is not given to sharing his strategies outside of the IT Alliance boardroom. Rather than betray weakness by telling allies they're on their own, IT leadership are more likely leave allies and enemies alike to interpret silence.

There are, however, a few breaks in the clouds gathering at Delve's borders.

Earlier today a number of IT Alliance supercapital and capital ships were able to escape from 6VDT-H when the Goon's left an opening in their coverage of that system's siege. It's unknown at this point whether this was a tactical error on the Deklein Coalition's part, or simple indifference.

Additionally, despite all the bad news, IT Alliance has not gone into failscade. This suggests that SirMolle and IT leadership have been able to keep their retreat to Delve from becoming a rout.

However, a number of corporations within IT Alliance have been hedging their bets for some time now. Much will depend on whether SirMolle can count on those corporations to hold the line if and when the invaders arrive at Delve's door. Assuming resistance remains at its current levels in Fountain and Querious, how much breathing room IT Alliance has to prepare its defense will depend on whether its enemies wait to reduce those regions fully before staging for an assault of Delve.

In either event, the storm warnings are up and the skies around Delve grow darker.

Shock Treatment

2011-01-31T04:52:00.000-08:00

In my experience nullsec changes some CareBears. They become a different breed than their high-sec cousins. Tougher. More efficient. More wily. More ruthless. Far richer. The best of them will become the great merchant princes of New Eden. - Fiddler's Edge, August 12, 2010

Let's talk a bit about economic shocks.

Most of the time changes in the economic climate are rather gradual, leaving business plenty of time to detect and adapt to changes in the marketplace. Every now and again, however, an economic shock occurs in which something fundamental in the marketplace changes very quickly. The recent bursting of the housing bubble would be an example of this, as would the oil shocks of the 1970s and India's trade liberalization in the early 1990s and the Asian baht crisis in 1997.

When market shocks attack, sudden stresses are put on businesses. Companies that have the wherewithal to adapt, or are well position to exploit the changes, survive or even thrive in the new economic reality. Weaker, or non-competitive companies normally fold or are bought out - their production capacity and market share absorbed by their healthier competitors.

As I've written elsewhere Dominion sovereignty mechanics added a cost component to holding nullsec systems. This made PvP skills alone an insufficient means of holding space. To be competitive under Dominion rules, alliances must manage their space efficiently. Dominion also altered sov warfare mechanics, requiring that alliance actively defend their space against attacks. This effectively reduced the volume of space most single alliances can effectively defend.

In effect, the Dominion changes amounted to a market shock. And fallout from that shock is still driving events in nullsec.

While it's not happening quickly enough for the game designers at CCP (more on that next time), the Dominion rules are shrinking the size of alliances. The era of the monster nullsec alliance is coming to a close. The cult of personality alliances in particular seem headed for the exits. Atlas Alliance is no more. Against All Authorities' vast nullsec empire collapsed entirely and, though their recovery and return wins them the "comeback kid" award for 2010, they are a smaller and more efficient alliance than they were of old. CVA lost all of Providence and, apparently, the will to take it back. Pandemic Legion has given up holding nullsec sov. IT Alliance, hounded by their enemies, teeters on the edge of the abyss.

'Now wait a minute, Mord,' I hear you saying. 'What about the Northern Coalition? What about the Deklein Coalition? Those are massive alliances. Why aren't they falling too?'

In fact, they're not massive alliances. Setting the Deklein Coalition aside for the moment, the Northern Coalition is a collection of small to mid-sized alliances who originally banded together for the common defense. Looking at the sovereignty maps, the alliances are more or less "right sized" in terms of the amount of space they control given the Dominion paradigm. Originally, many of these alliances were "Carebear" alliances who moved to nullsec and banded together for common defense. That strand of Carebear in their organizational DNA left them well positioned to thrive in the post-Dominion world.

In the highly competitive world of elite PvP, one tends to make enemies. However, as I've pointed out elsewhere, organizational integrity in Eve is dependent upon successful personal relationships. While the Carebears of the Northern Coaliton have learned the joys of PvP, they have a cultural bias toward cooperation which provides them with secure space and is much better for their business and industrial activities. When the Dominion changes were introduced at the end of 2009, the Northern Coalition was, by and large, well placed to adapt to those changes.

As IT Alliance is rocked by internal and external turmoil, there's a good bit of chatter in the forums about what nullsec might look like if IT falls. Much of it involves hand-wringing over the prospect of a "Carebear" nullsec, where everyone is blue to everyone else and we all just hold hands and get along.

Don't worry, it won't happen. For that to occur, the Northern Coalition would have to take on a much more aggressive posture - in effect become like the PvP-intensive alliances that are, to some extent, collapsing of their own weight. In fact, one of the reasons I make a distinction between the Northern Coalition and a Deklein Coaliton that includes both Goonswarm and Test Alliance is that Deklein's policies are much more expansionist. As we've seen, Dominion isn't kind to hyper-aggressive organizations in the long run.

As I anticipated a while back, the Dominion changes ushered in the fall of the monolithic PvP alliance and the rise of smaller alliances that know how to cooperate for the common good. This may mean less PvP in nullsec at a high level, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. It is a natural extension of the Eve sandbox, people building institutions where none exist in order to further their interests.

CCP builds the universe. We, the players, shape it.

SirMolle's Stand

2011-01-25T14:19:00.000-08:00

If recent low CTA turnouts are not related to player apathy or inability to respond, we are left with the possibility that a significant body of the troops in IT Alliance are loyal to someone other than SirMolle; that someone is (or someones are) withholding participation as a political play to gain influence within the alliance. - Fiddler's Edge, December 29, 2010

Late Sunday the Machiavellian churn in IT Alliance bubbled to the surface in the form of a forum post by FinFleet CEO Klez leaked onto the Scrapheap challenge forums. Most of you will have read both the original post in Scrapheap and the tsunami of speculation and commentary that has followed it in the forums.

In essence two sizable IT Alliance corporations, FinFleet and X13 declared themselves SirMolle loyalists acting to oppose a cabal of CEOs who had taken control of IT Alliance from SirMolle. They demanded said cabal step down. Ultimatums were given. Yesterday the two corporations parted ways with IT Alliance and as this writing have joined with The Ankou, a former Initiative corporation, to start a new alliance called Raiden.(-RDN-).

There's been a good bit of chatter in the forums about an imminent IT Alliance failscade. I don't see that happening, at least not in the next week or so. There are reports of IT Alliance corporations moving resources to empire or NPC space but, given the wolf at Delve's door, that may be more prudence than panic. I do expect more IT corporations are positioning themselves to leave, but a wise CEO would keep his head down and keep his movements in the shadows.

Internal events have resulted in a degree of defensive indifference by IT Alliance forces in Fountain for the last 48 hours. Test Alliance deployed TCUs in a number of systems yesterday without opposition. However, it is worth noting that Deklein Coalition forces haven't taken advantage of IT's disarray when it comes to taking station systems. As I've written elsewhere viz The Initiative's dealings with -A-, it's never wise to give an enemy room to recover when he's on the ropes. You keep punching until he's a bloodied mass on the canvas and the referee has counted him out and declared you the winner. Deklein may regret not taking greater advantage of IT Alliances's disarray.

Meanwhile IT Alliance is attempting to calm the internal waters and reassure the rank and file. In an audio file produced for public consumption and released to EveNews24, SirMolle reassures IT's members that all is under control. Operations are restarting. The front is Fountain, not Delve and all forces there are to remain in place. FinFleet and X13 are IT Alliance allies. Super secret allies are on their way to support IT Alliance. PL is attacking the Deklein coalition. The Northern Coalition is going to be too busy to help the Deklein Coalition. Rumors that RKK was withholding supercapital ships despite direct requests by SirMolle are "bullshit".

All is well. Really.

The IT Alliance plan at present appears to be to stabilize the Fountain front and engage Deklein Coalition there in a war of attrition. IT would leverage its deep financial reserves, repaying IT pilots for operation related ship losses in an attempt to bleed the DC white. The underlying assumption here is that the IT Alliance are the superior PvPers and, given even odds, can slaughter the inferior Deklein pilots. It should be pointed out, however, that even fights in sov warfare are a rarity. In Fountain, IT Alliance's CTA attendance has slumped, even when spurred on by SirMolle's previous "all in" offensives. Betting the house against repeated experience seems a long throw in the dark.

Further, the plan appears to assume SirMolle can dictate the battle lines in this fight and keep the war to a single front in Fountain. Unfortunately, the number and location of the fronts in this war are not in his control. If IT's opponents open up enfilading lines of attack into Delve and/or Querious he'll be forced to defend, which will bleed off pilots and ships from Fountain. Failure to do so will, at best, allow the enemy to disrupt his supply lines (critical in a war of attrition) or, at worst, leave his ships trapped in their Fountain staging areas.

The debacle at Z3OS-A suggests that, having learned their lessons at the hands of Pandemic Legion, the Deklein and Northern coalitions are the better PvPers when it comes to supercapital engagements. This, coupled with IT Alliance's pre-existing reluctance to risk their supercapitals is another speed-bump on their road to victory.

Finally, there's IT Alliance itself to consider. One might assume that with FinFleet and X13 purged from the alliance, the boil of discontent has finally been lanced and, from here on in, it's all man-hugs and free beer in the IT boardrooms. OK, unlikely. However, if IT Alliance can win big in the next few weeks, many rifts will be healed, and many grudges forgotten. If not, the backbiting and hedging against defeat will continue.

As ever, victory has a thousand fathers; defeat is an orphan.

The Initiative At Bay

2011-01-19T04:38:00.000-08:00

Sovereignty warfare is an acquired taste.

The central point of Sov warfare is to take territory from the other guy. Taking territory, now as ever, requires the reducing of military strong points. Siege warfare, in other words. For the average Eve pilot, that means a lot of time grinding away at structures while waiting for the enemy to drop a fleet or two on you.

Long stretches of boredom, punctuated by moments of terror/excitement. Just like real life.

Mind, there are rewards for sov warfare beyond simply holding space in nullsec. There is something about being part of large fleet actions that can't be found in small gangs. The pace of combat is not as rapid, but you're constantly aware of the sheer volume of power being thrown around. When structure grinding gives way to punch and counter-punch by fleets numbering in the hundreds of ships, there's nothing like it - particularly if you're winning.

Losing in sov warfare, on the other hand, totally sucks.

As often as not, losing a sov war is not about the battles you win or lose in the field, but the battle to keep your pilots' heads in the game. You can be holding your ground against a determined enemy when suddenly the daily grind of responding to attacks starts to get to your pilots. Eve stops being fun. Starts being a job. Some pilots stop answering CTAs. The operational burden falls on a smaller set of pilots, and some of them burn out and stop answering CTAs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Next thing you know, an enemy you once outnumbered on the battlefield starts outnumbering you, and pilot morale goes into a downward cascade. Sov warfare is as much about psychology as it is about strategy and tactics.

It is the psychological battle The Initiative appears to have lost last Sunday in its fight for the Catch region against Against All Authorities (-A-) and the rest of the Southern Russian Coalition (SRC).

The Initiative's position had deteriorated over time. The first warning signs were This Initiative's inability to support the vassal alliances Circle of Two (CO2) and Dead Terrorists (DT) that provided a buffer between Catch and the NPC regions -A- had retreated to after The Initiative's invasion. The next blow was the SRC overrunning of Impass and Feythabolis followed by incursions into Catch proper. The initiative turned to IT Alliance for help - a move that backfired from a morale standpoint when IT abandoned the Initiative's cause only a week after going "all in" to eliminate the Southern Russian threat. The Initiative's rehiring of the Northern Coalition Alliance's (NCDOT) capital fleet last week, despite their lack of utility during their first term of service, captures the degree to which The Initiative was in trouble.

In abandoning Catch, The Initiative has pulled its forces back to Immensea. Their intent, according to a press release by Initiative leadership, is to use that Region as a base for raiding and harrying -A- forces in an effort to step away from sov warfare and get back to the rapid-fire PvP they enjoyed before taking of the burdens of a vast nullsec empire.

If you look at the Immensea region, it has only a single point of entry to Catch, which acts as a bottleneck for SRC forces attacking from Catch. At the same time, the region has a number of entry points to Teneferis, where the greater part of The Initiative's renters - and income - reside. The Initiative appears to be making their headquarters at E1F-LK, a system in the station-rich C73-U5 constellation. It's proximity to both the region's sole gateway to Catch and a gateway to Teneferis speaks to The Initiative's intent.

To an extent, The Initiative's actions seem to replicate -A-'s tactic of withdrawing to NPC space to regroup after The Initiative's invasion last Fall. However, The Initiative's circumstances now are quite different from -A-'s then. Many of -A- pilots were long-time veterans of nullsec, hardened to the rigors and pace of sov warfare. Unlike The Initiative, -A-'s pilots had not endured months of bruising sov warfare prior to their retreat. Finally, unlike Immensea, NPC space cannot be conquered.

I doubt the SRC will allow The Initiative the leisure to recover, or a strong point from which to raid Catch. While The Initiative's plan might seem sound at first glance, it's dependent upon defensive indifference by the SRC to be successful. Once they've consolidated their hold on Catch, expect the SRC to go after Teneferis, forcing Initiative into another grinding sov fight while, at the same time, applying pressure to the gateway between Catch and Immensea.

If Teneferis falls, the SRC forces will be able to attack Immensea from three additional gateways - leaving Initiative's forces trapped in their own refuge.

CSM Summit - The Coming Super Carrier Buff

2011-01-17T10:07:00.000-08:00

Super Carriers (aka Motherships or Moms) are out of balance. Even the lads at CCP will admit that, albeit reluctantly.

In the latest minutes of the CSM summit with CCP, the near overwhelming advantage Motherships bestow on their owners was a point of discussion:

The current situation with Super Carriers is that they are just not dying, they do large quantities of damage to other Capital ships and sub Capital ships – in fact they can be wielded in any situation with very good effects.... There were some examples given of how easy it is to move Super Carriers due to their jump range – allowing extreme force projection by relatively small number of pilot flying Super Carriers.

While he agreed that Super Carriers are out of balance, developer CCP Greyscale seems strangely resistant to the idea of reducing the Super Carriers utility out of apparent concern for the lot of Super Carrier pilots. Simply nerfing Super Carriers, Greyscale said, "imposes a great cost on [Super Carrier] pilots".

Now that's a bit strange.

In imposing nerfs on various ships over the years CCP's policy over the years has been to put the health of the game over the interests of pilots of a class of ship than had gotten out of balance. Investing heavily in any overpowered ship or technology has always been a calculated risk in New Eden, as such ships are routinely targeted by CCP for re-balancing. We are all aware that, unlike Star Trek's Scotty, CCP can change the laws of physics on you.

But, suddenly, crocodile tears are being shed for the poor, poor Super Carrier pilots.

Cynic that I am, I suspect a for-profit company might have a financial motive for this sudden swell of concern.

See, a healthy number of Super Carrier owners pay for all or part of their Super Carriers using real money. A Nyx Super Carrier on the RMT market these days runs about $1000 US. Assuming a 700 million ISK return on a $35 US Plex purchase, that rounds out to about 19 billion ISK, which is on par with the in game cost of the ship if you include a healthy profit margin. The build cost of a Nyx these days runs 12 to 14 billion ISK including materials and the blueprint copy. That nets out to about $700 US worth of Plex purchases to buy a bargain-basement priced Nyx in-game. Mind, that's assuming you're lucky enough to have someone who'll build it for you at cost.

That, my friends, is money in the bank for CCP assuming those ISK are bought through CCP's Plex program.

And then, of course, there's all that money changing hands outside the game for Super Carrier-piloting characters, the right to purchase the next Super Carrier coming off the assembly line and all those expensive Super Carrier-specific implants.

With some of that money coming in as legitimate Plex income to CCP, it's not surprising that the developers have a healthy concern for keeping Super Carrier pilots happy. And if some of the people with an interest in the illegitimate supercapital trade had some degree of influence over CCP, why there'd even more leverage for maintaining the Super Carriers' position as the "must-have" item in nullsec.

Now, given the Super Carrier's ability to project power over a large area, there's one change in Eve that would make it even more powerful, even more essential that it is now. It's a change that would brighten the day of Super Carrier pilots everywhere and turn the Super Carrier market white-hot. It can be done without even touching the Super Carrier, and the CSM is on record in the Summit minutes as having approved the change.

Get rid of jump-bridges.

One of the advantages of holding sovereignty in nullsec has been the ability to install jump-bridge networks. Most readers of The Edge will know that jump bridges in two different systems can be linked, allowing the player to jump directly from one system to the other without use of a gate. Thus, what might be a tedious ten jump trip by conventional gate travel can be condensed to a single jump. A well-planned jump bridge network allows sovereignty holders and their allies to move across an entire region of nullsec in only a few jumps.

Needless to say, jump-bridges allow an alliance to project conventional (i.e. subcapital) force over a much larger area than normal gate travel would permit. Alliances employing efficient jump bridge networks enjoy superior mobility over an attacking force and can provide just-in-time logistics support for both offensive and defensive operations.

During the CSM summit, CCP Greyscale proposed eliminating jump bridges from the game. Part of CCP's rational for this is that decreased mobility will increase the costs of supporting allies, fragment coalitions and (get ready for it) "...may make it easier for small alliances to set up shop, with less supercapital curb stomping."

Apparently mind-altering substances are cheap and plentiful in Iceland.

If you get rid of the jump bridges, the supercapital becomes the only item that can project force over a wide area. Defending alliances will no longer able to move and concentrate conventional fleets quickly in response to a Super Carrier attack, making Super Carriers much less vulnerable to take-downs by defending forces. Barring poor scouting or bad luck, the Super Carriers' superior mobility will allow them run rings around enemy subcapital forces and strike their enemies more or less at will.

Unless, of course, those enemies have enough Super Carriers to counter the attacker's Super Carriers. So, contrary to CCP Greyscale's expectations, small, Super Carrier-poor alliances will be subject to supercapital curb-stompings on a regular basis.

In short, the removal of Jump Bridges amounts to a Super Carrier buff. CCP's going to need a bigger cash register, 'cause I smell an arms race.

Ironically, in the same meeting minutes CSM members supporting a nerf of the Super Carrier observe that supercapital blobs are quickly becoming an 'I win' button in nullsec engagements. Thanks to the CSM's thoughtless acquiescence to CCP's jump-bridge elimination plan, they've ensured that the "I Win" button will be standard equipment on even small gangs of Super Carriers.

In proposing the elimination of jump bridges, CCP Greyscale cautioned that it would result in a chaotic transition, or as he put it, "everything will go to shit.”. In other words CCP is preparing to inflict an unprecedented amount of suffering on most of nullsec's current residents in order to accelerate their goal of shrinking nullsec alliances, begun in Dominion. That's an interesting contrast to their desire to avoid upsetting Super Carrier pilots.

Apparently, Super Carrier pilots feel pain more than the rest of us.

The Return of -A-

2011-01-16T14:41:00.000-08:00

Fiddlers Note:

Reports coming in from multiple sources indicate that The Initiative's defense of Catch has collapsed.

GE system is reported to be in its last reinforce cycle and little resistance is being encountered. Initiative's PvP forces are engaged in running fights as they attempt a pull back to Immensea E1F in order to establish a new defensive line. Alliance leadership has ordered FCs to delay the pursing Against All Authorities (-A-) forces as opportunity allows and necessity demands, but avoid "hold at all costs" actions.

A large number of Initiative carriers and freighter have been reported in Doril, which corresponds with internal Initiative statements that non-PvP resources are being evacuated to Litom and Doril.

I'll provide analysis as the fog of war clears.

Lowsec

2011-01-15T10:54:00.000-08:00

So, I'm in an alliance op a few weeks ago, and our fleet bridges to a lowsec system in order to box in an enemy fleet that's a single jump into nullsec space. As our 300+ ship fleet tears its way down the lowsec pipeline toward the nullsec gateway, we encounter a number of lowsec gate camps. Fleet's ordering no aggro on the camps, so we blow by them, leaving the pirates untouched and none the worse for wear.

Mind, I can't speak for the state of their trousers.

As we roared past, I couldn't help but think about my own days in lowsec. Those were the dark days of exile for SirMolle and BOB Alliance, after they'd been driven from nullsec by their enemies following the BOB disband of early 2009.

Now, as I've said elsewhere, when a band of barbarians shows up on your doorstep, it's often because they've been displaced by another band of barbarians who showed up on their doorstep. The Goths, after all, didn't cross the Rhine-Danube line in 376 simply because it was too nice a day to stay indoors.

As in real life, so in Eve. When BoB was pushed out of their space, deep lowsec (those areas in close proximity to nullsec) suddenly had to contend with a wave of well organized and well equipped ex-BOB PvP veterans. Needless to say, they pretty much made camp wherever they pleased.

In order to make money for a recovery and eventual return to lowsec, SirMolle's lads went about dropping cap fleets on tower-occupied high value moons, liberating them from their former lowsec owners, and setting up IT Alliance towers and mining operations in their place. The lowsec corporations and alliances fought back as best they could, but were boxing well below IT Alliance's weight class. The lowsec denizens were brushed aside and the moons were taken for the greater glory of IT Alliance.

I suspect those moons were abandoned by IT Alliance once they returned to nullsec. After all, while high value for lowsec, those moons could not compete with the moons of Delve, Querious and Fountain for sheer money making capacity. Further, the logistics involved with collecting lowsec moon-mining outputs from deep nullsec likely didn't make it worth IT Alliance's while to hold onto them.

That's a bit of a long story, but it illustrates a key point for what follows: Nullec alliances give lowsec denizens a serious case of the wiggins.

There has been an ongoing drumbeat of concern by residents of New Eden, many of them lowsec residents, that lowsec is 'broken'; that lowsec is sort of the forgotten middle child of Eve space, who looks a little too much like the milkman for comfort, and doesn't get the degree of nurturing that its younger and older siblings get. CSM Mynxee campaigned on making lowsec matter, and has focused a great deal of time and effort on soliciting ideas from the Eve community and bringing them before CCP development.

Meanwhile, throughout 2010, the population of lowsec has continued to drop, even as the post-Dominion population of nullsec has increased.

Shadai of Sleepless in Space, brought the future of lowsec back into sharp focus when she published The Downward Spiral of Lowsec on January 6. While I don't agree with Shadai on every point, it's a frank and thoughtful assessment of the state of lowsec.

A grateful lowsec proceeded to excoriate her for her pains.

A lot of the folks in lowsec, it seems, like lowsec as it is. In fact, as some of them write, the fewer people out there competing for loot and PvP kills, the better. A key point they raise is that there is no reason why an entrepreneurial carebear can't make a tidy sum - in between poddings, of course, which they regard as an occupational hazard. In fact, a number of carebears can and do make a living in lowsec.

But why would a Carebear want to make ISK in lowsec when he can make lots more ISK in greater safely and with less effort in nullsec? By definition, a businessman who takes on more risk and effort to make less money is a poor businessman.

The Post-Dominion nullsec sov rules have made industrial corporations and players a much desired asset in nullsec. Nullsec alliances are actively recruiting them to come out to nullsec and work in the relative security of alliance space.

Now, PvP corporations who want to go to nullsec have to build a kill record to qualify for membership - and that usually means time in lowsec. Indy corporations in empire, on the other hand, have begun routinely leapfrogging over lowsec and rent nullsec space or join a nullsec alliance.

Why would they not? It's safer. The rewards are greater. Sure, there are risks, but they're much more manageable than in lowsec.

Nullsec alliances are courting carebears (many of whom develop a decided taste for PvP once they're in Nullsec at which point they become Nullsec Bears) because the Sov rule changes meant that holding nullsec space suddenly required money. Lots and lots of money.

Nullsec alliances have a huge incentive to bring in and provide reasonably safe space for carebears. Lowsec players, as a rule, merely want to kill carebears (and each other). Right now there's no incentive for a lowsec alliance to create a reasonably safe space to invite Industrial players and corporations to do business. Until there is, lowsec will remain a backwater.

Looking over the Making Lowsec Matter forum, most of the suggestions attempt to strike a balance between making piracy easier and more profitable (Lure in more fat carebears! Make them easier to catch! Special pirate goodies!) without making lowsec attractive to those scary guys in nullsec.

And there's the rub. The Dominion Sov rules have made nullsec riches much more accessible to the average carebear. However, anything attractive enough to lure carebears up from nullsec is not going to escape the notice of the nullsec alliances those carebears belong to or rent from. And something valuable enough to bring in the carebears will be of interest to those money-hungry lads with all the scary Supercapitals.

There are people like Mynxee, who see the dead end lowsec is rushing toward and are moving to change its course. However, for many of its residents, life in lowsec is fine as it is, even as the population dwindles. That's not uncommon in failing economies. In fact, a common obstacle to economic recovery are the established businesses with an interest in the status quo.