The fortunes of CVA since the Great Eviction are regularly discussed there and I sometimes weigh in - leaving a link to my analysis. A lot of the posters are the guys on the battlefield and in the CEO offices of the alliances involved and I value their feedback.
Surprise!, my previous post got the following reaction from Suitonia:
Didn't read the blog, but noticed this "Last night, just after the Tyrannis patch was installed CVA attempted to take advantage of long-standing defensive indifference on the part of Sytematic-Chaos Alliance (SC) and launch a surprise attack on R3-K7K.
The surprise attack caught everyone by surprise."
Other comments followed. Rovern Hashu weighed in with:
Its not like it hadn't been SBUed for a few days and reinforced a few times . . . oh wait . . . big surprise . . .
And U'K's Butter Dog:
nah, not surprised... well, maybe a little that they are throwing SBU's down the toilet before properly regrouping etc
I am well chastised. (Mord tears a button off his shirt and sprinkles ashes over his head)
The reactions I had access to and surprised chatter in the lower Providence intel channels led me to the conclusion that the timing of CVA's attack (just after the Tyrannis patch) was unexpected. CVA's success at taking the station and the New Providence Holder's (NPH) delay in pulling together a fleet to take it back seemed to confirm that the timing of the attack caught the NPH off-guard.
But it appears the NPH expected CVA to catch them with their pants around their ankles. Not a surprise.
All part of the plan.