My prior post, For Whom the Bell Tolls, got a fair bit of off-line reaction. Most of the CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance) folks I've communicated with are admitting that their Reclaiming of Providence has downgraded from a short-term inevitability to a long term goal.
Since Bell was posted, CVA has shed another thirty pilots, taking them under the one thousand mark (986 as of this morning). They've been able to hold their corporation count but it's evident that, with their glory days gone and no reasonably secure null-sec space to offer, pilots are voting with their feet against CVA's current direction.
As I've said before, role-play or not, people don’t pay CCP every month for a bummer. They pay to have fun. Any corporation or alliance ignoring this basic fact, does so at their peril.
Happily for CVA, the incessant pressure from U'K and AAA (Against All Authorities) may be about to come off. AAA, has reset most of its blues, apparently discontent with having to slog so far from home for their pew-pew. Victory it seems, can be as hard on the winners as the losers. Without the threat of an enemy at the gates, friction develops among the troops, old grudges surface and cracks in alliance unity begin to show.
Rather than submit itself to the perils of peace and stability, AAA has reset the game.
If CVA had spent its time since the Great Eviction rebuilding and waiting for this opportunity, rather than alienating solid allies and grinding down its pilot base, it might have been well placed to take back some of it's old space it a week or so. However, a cascade of bad decisions haunts them. Their ship and pilots base is thin and battered. Their remaining systems in Providence are vulnerable to takeover by carebear renter alliances (TXK-II); the vassals of AAA's Providence vassals.
Even if AAA supplies the lumber, CVA appears to lack the tools needed to rebuild their house.