Tuesday, June 7, 2011

The Tipping Point

If you've been looking at the current Eve influence maps these days, you'll have noted that the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassal alliances Raiden[DOT], Evoke, Northern Coalition[DOT] and Pandemic Legion control a long arc of nullsec space that runs from the Vale/Tribute border in northern nullsec to the Omist/Teneferis border in the South.


Presently DRF and company are battering at the doors of Tribute which, I believe, has been the primary target of the DRF's campaign from the beginning. Tribute is a rich area from a resource perspective. Larded on top of their existing ISK generating capacity, Tribute would make the DRF a financial power with an ISK earning capacity that would dwarf that of any other Eve coalition. In his most recent Ten Ton Hammer column, The Mittani points out the leverage all that DRF wealth buys.

While the DRF are no slouches when it comes to PvP, the core NC alliances' PvP skills had matured in 2010, particularly in the area of capital fleets, and had shown themselves a match for the Russians in the field. The quality of NC fleet commanders tended to be spotty but, properly lead, the NC forces had shown themselves to be capable fighters in both the capital and subcapital aspects of the game. Early efforts by the DRF to establish themselves in Geminate were turned back by the NC with relative ease.

Stymied on the military front, the DRF unlimbered the financial side of their arsenal. Well placed bribes provided the DRF with an initial foothold in Geminate that the Drone Russians could not win by force of arms. When that was in danger of collapsing under pressure from the NC, the DRF purchased the services of Pandemic Legion to attack Vale and reduce pressure on the DRF forces in Geminate.

The sheer number of Supercapitals the DRF was able to purchase ensured not only numeric superiority in the invaders' Supercapital fleets, but also ensured a ready supply of replacements for supercapitals lost in combat. Thus, the DRF could not only deploy superior numbers across multiple points of attack, they could do so more aggressively, knowing their losses could be easily replaced.

As of this writing the DRF and their vassal alliances have consolidated their holds on both Geminate and Vale of the Silent, and have established a foothold in Tribute. Morsus Mihi and Razor Alliance, along with the remnants smaller NC alliances are attempting to push them back out. However, sov combat is a game won and lost by supercapital fleets, and the DRF are presently holding that "I Win" button. Barring internal division within the DRF and vassals, or an unexpected threat to the DRF renter space, the writing is on the wall.

Much has been made of Against All Authorities' (-A-) assault on the southern border of White Noise in Teneferis. However Against All Authorities (-A-) doesn't appear to have followed up their conquest of that region by applying pressure to White Noise holdings in Detorid. Instead, White Noise appears to be pulling back in that region without any encouragement, probably by way of adjusting their nullsec footprint to accommodate their newly conquered territories.

Strategic Operations Brigade (SOB), a new DRF vassal alliance made up largely of former RAGE corporations, has been given sovereignty in the Detorid constellations closest to the sole Teneferis entry system.  Thus, enemies recently defeated by the DRF are turned into loyal vassals, beholden to White Noise. In return for a slice of nullsec, SOB will act as a buffer for White Noise on their frontier with -A-. The financial cost of holding the Detorid systems is moved off White Noise balance sheets.

Using vassals like SOB in this manner serves the DRF from a public relations perspective as well. As the sov map stands today, the DRF and their vassal alliances are a clear and present danger to the remaining free alliances of nullsec. Even the Mittani and his Goons, PvP rich, but supercapital poor, are concerned that they are next on the block if Razor Alliance and Morsus Mihi fall. By farming out space to vassals, the DRF disguises the effective size of its sphere of influence and creates the illusion of a politically diverse nullsec. 

Now, you'll note that I've listed Pandemic Legion above as a DRF vassal alliance.

I've written elsewhere with regard to PL's limitations as a gun-for-hire business venture. In essence PL's predisposition to griefing makes them an unreliable entity with which to do business. Eschewing the burdens of holding sovereignty of their own, and with the DRF as it's sole major customer, PL has limited options for revenue generation, particularly for the rank and file pilots. Ironically, the DRF's current success means even fewer customers for PL. Every new system the DRF takes, each new alliance it takes under its wing, is one less target against which PL can make take out a contract as contracting against the DRF and vassals has the disadvantage of alienating a profitable client. At the moment, over half of nullsec is under the DRF umbrella and therefore unavailable to PL for making mayhem; its self-proclaimed raison d'etre.

Sooner or later, the interests of PL and the DRF are going to come into conflict. I'm sure both PL and the DRF are mindful of this and giving thought to life after the NC campaign. PL presently has value to the DRF as a useful weapon against its enemies. However, with the number of viable enemies dwindling, the DRF may well be wondering if PL has outlived its use if it can't be domesticated.

PL will be mindful of the same. Law and order is not PL's friend. The surest way to kill off PL is to deny it safe haven - to harry it throughout nullsec, no matter where it runs. With the DRF and friends in charge of the better part of nullsec, and the number of alternative options shrinking, PL may be thinking that the time has come to start trimming back the DRF kudzu grass - to make prey of the DRF herd. PL would be wise to consider the possibility that its employer is thinking the same thoughts and might be wondering if it's in the DRF's interests to swap its role as PL's employer for that of its undertaker. 

After all, once the NC is laid low it would be a simple matter for the DRF to muster the PL supercapital fleet deep in DRF space and trap/destroy them there. Once PL's supercapital teeth are drawn, the DRF has the money and the ships to deny PL safe harbor anywhere in nullsec.

So, PL is coming up on a choice: To wear the DRF's collar, or bite the hand that feeds it and run for the wilderness. This assumes, of course, that the DRF is going to give PL the option. If PL chooses the freedom of the open plains, it's going to need allies. Which means it will have to convince the remaining free nullsec alliances that they have enough common cause to put old grudges by, and then join (and possibly lead) them against the DRF bloc.

Yeah. You heard me. Pandemic Legion may be free nullsec's best hope. I love my irony with a twist.

17 comments:

  1. MM and RZR have already issued the evac order. Expect to see MM and RZR head to Fountain/Delve/Querious where their continued blue status with Test/Goons will protect their northern border as they force others from the space. The new sov will see White Noise take Gem, Raiden. in Vale, NC. in Trib, and IRC in Branch. AAA could save itself some fighting by blueing up DRF and offering a few Bil isk to buy the drone regions and giving DRF renters free pass to move out.

    As you mentioned, DRF will have huge resources available from the addition of tech income combined with a vast renter income. And they have lots of new renters gained from former NC/UNIT corps. All that equates to a whole lot of blue in nullsec. As you say, PL is the wildcard. With DRF needing no muscle, PL's option may be to take up sov and settle down.

    This was the wilder nullsec CCP and everyone else was hoping for with NC's demise, right?

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  2. Thanks for the great article again!

    Mordis, PL has a couple of times trolled the forums by hinting towards sovereignty claims, but I don't quite think that PL is (anymore) about sovereignty at all... ...their people seem much more keen on keeping the destroyer of the worlds image up.

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  3. Mordis, MM and RZR have evaced already, yet I think you are wrong about the outcome. As I understand it RZR is in Venal currently with no announcement of where they may be heading. MM on the otherhand is rumored to already have a presence in NPC Delve yet they are making no active moves yet to take space. Since Goons have already reset most of the former NC, and TEST usually aligns with the Goons, the question is will the Goons reset MM and RZR now that thy don't hold space. I don't know, yet I wouldn't be surprised to see a few resets coming up.

    As for the DRF, they have become a monster, and things will definitely change in nullsec, I just don't see it being a positive choice as the the supercap blog gives the choice of oblivion or becoming a vassal. CCP wanted to see nullsec change, I wonder if they had considered this outcome?

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  4. This: "This was the wilder nullsec CCP and everyone else was hoping for with NC's demise, right?"

    The nullsec nerf is proving out to be the biggest load of crap yet to squeeze out of CCP, as the might of entrenched powers grows ever more pronounced and chokes off any room for diversity. Supercaps, before, at least had _some_ kind of counterbalance in the expanded economics of pre-nerf null and all the wildcards that stood to spawn. Now, supercap homogeneity is the new world order, and I fear CCP's reaction to this even more than I long for a change, given past perspective.

    Clinging to battered hope that CCP will figure it out such that it gets better before it gets worse, for once.

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  5. Rumor I hear is that PL will not be renewing their DRF contract.

    After all, once the NC is laid low it would be a simple matter for the DRF to muster the PL supercapital fleet deep in DRF space and trap/destroy them there.

    Uhhmmm no. What are they going to say, "Oh yeah come deep into our territory where you will be several jumps from hostiles (and safety) so we can...uhhh...have a...uhhh...party, yeah a party. We'll fly our super caps around and talk about how cool they are."

    Maybe if Phreeze, Shadoo, and the rest of the PL command structure is lobotomized this might happen.

    So, PL is coming up on a choice: To wear the DRF's collar, or bite the hand that feeds it and run for the wilderness. This assumes, of course, that the DRF is going to give PL the option. If PL chooses the freedom of the open plains, it's going to need allies. Which means it will have to convince the remaining free nullsec alliances that they have enough common cause to put old grudges by, and then join (and possibly lead) them against the DRF bloc.

    Hmmm, no not really. Making and selling super caps is one way alliances make money. I don't think that PL will have too many issues moving to NPC space and becoming a pain in the ass of the DRF if they wanted too.

    And right now the DRF has a bit of a problem:

    Lots and lots and lots of space to protect, and lots of enemies. They have DekCo watching them suspiciously up north, and -A- and friends are down south and now both have borders with the DRF. DRF could end up in a two front war. And if PL is left as a loose cannon they might just show back up in Tribute or Vale and start grabbing those tech moons.

    I'm not terribly worried that the DRF if going to take over the null sec map. My guess is lots of DRF pilots are worn out. I know some of the guys in Raiden and I bet they'd like to take a bit of breather from all the fighting. Fighting is great, but so are donuts and nobody wants to eat 2 dozen of them in one sitting.

    PL wont settle down or if they do they might as well just disband the alliance. They are together for the PvP. Nothing else. Give them space and they start bickering, drifting away from the game, and then losing that space (e.g. Fountain).

    What I see here is people taking the current trend and extrapolating it out beyond what is really reasonable. It is the same thing that lead people to thinking their house will always appreciate so constantly refinancing and taking the equity out to buy new toys is no problem. Until the price does go down, you find yourself seriously undewater and walking away from your home with a wrecked credit history.

    Lets not forget where a serious chunk of those DRF super caps came from: IT. Where is IT? Oh yeah, IT is dead.

    I also happen to know the guys running Finfleet and X13, they are super nerds with serious ego issues who really, really don't play well with others. Having a common enemy probably allowed the DRF to ignore that issue, but leave them alone and they'll fester like a boil.

    [HINT: Finfleet and X13 and their TS nerd rages were a significant factor in the death of IT]

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  6. @Steve -

    "DRF could end up in a two front war. And if PL is left as a loose cannon they might just show back up in Tribute or Vale and start grabbing those tech moons."

    You make my point.

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  7. Yeah, you're a week or so behind, Mord. Tribute is over and is being evacuated. The residents will be making no attempts to defend sov there.

    Other than the DRF, there's no entity on the map that can challenge the size of PL's supercap fleet. Therefore, PL's role in the remainder of 2011 and into 2012 is quite clear. They've even hinted at it in Delve. In between any future contracts, they'll roam freely throughout space, taking station systems from those unable to defend them and then sell those stations to the highest bidder. Any minor supercap losses they take during this process, they'll buy replacements for from the DRF. But it's unlikely they'll lose many. Without JBs to speed dictors/hictors to the PL lines, their supercaps will have ample warning of approaching fleets capable of hurting them.

    Finally, I assume there was some backroom deal that will prevent a DRF invasion of Dek/Pure Blind, at least for this year. Goons and DRF used to be allies, after all, and Goons were reluctant to engage on the NC's side until it was FAR too late. Goons and the Pure Blind residents will have no problems holding off Ev0ke, Raiden, et. al.

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  8. @Mordis - Personally, I blame supercapital proliferation.

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  9. Excellent post as always, but I take issue with a few of your points:

    1. It is of my opinion that the NC would have fallen within the year, whether or not PL was hired. The NC, in its current iteration, was the epitome of bloat. "Generalstab," the NC high command channel, often had more than 80 members online at a time. Additionally, MM and Razor's branding of themselves as the "A-Team" and everyone else as the B, C, and D teams really created a lot of friction. Finally, the NC was unable to unify in the face of invaders. The Mittani offered them Rydis as skymarshal and told them to get one, unified fleet composition, but the NC HC balked at being told what to do by "gewns" and refused to make any changes.

    2. Doing some killmail research, an entrepreneurial FHC poster found the following stats on who owns supers:

    "After updating I have ~550 supers...
    142 Pandemic Legion.
    72 Raiden.
    73 NCdot.
    52 White Noise.
    34 Legion of xXDEATHXx
    49 Red Alliance
    0 SOLAR FLEET
    1 Morsus Mihi
    0 Majesta Empire
    0 Mostly Harmless
    13 Goonswarm Federation"

    [Those aren't all, but the vast majority.]

    Were PL and DRF in the same timezone, PL could destroy them easily. But, PL is not interested in sov, and taking sov would require too many time sacrifices (alarmclocks; miss work) for PL to do effectively.

    3. You make SOP sound worse than it is. As R.A.G.E., those players were vassals to the NC. But when invasion time came, NC told them to screw off and didn't help. Those players are now vassals of DRF, and they're probably quite proud of themselves for sticking it to the NC.

    4. The point being: I believe that the NC would have crumbled eventually, without PL, NC., or Raiden.. With those alliances, however, the DRF was able to invade the NC and destroy it within short order.

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  10. Addendum to #2: Those are supers that have appeared on KM's in the past month, not who "owns" them, as I mistakenly said.

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  11. @Jester -

    Shouldn't you be playing Global Agenda or some such? ;)

    Hardly a week or so behind.

    On Sunday when I began writing this post (yes, it takes me that long), the DRF had just established a beach-head in Tribute. While there was some evacuation going on, it's normal procedure to clear expensive industrial and PvE resources out of a region under imminent threat.

    On Monday I received word of large scale Morsus Mihi capital activity in lowsec consistent with evacuation that was confirmed by Mr. Javix in his blog, however I also had word of heavy subcapital fighting in the DRF beachhead systems in Tribute (In retrospect, likely a rearguard action).

    I am aware that a number of forums and bloggers have been pronouncing the NC war over for a week or more. Many of the same blogs and forums prematurely announced the demise/failscade of Against All Authorities (-A-) following the Initiative/White Noise/Pandemic Legion invasion last October.

    I tend to wait for events on the ground to play out before making a final call (See this blog's October 6 entry, 'The Undead'. As Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings."

    As you point out, other than the DRF, there's no entity on the map that can challenge the size of PL's supercap fleet. The DRF and PL each know that, for the moment, the other is the only credible threat to itself.

    If I were PL, I'd be wary of answering any mandatory DRF Supercapital fleet CTAs with anything close to my full strength.

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  12. Even if DRF tried to lure them in both sides will suffer heavy losses not just PL.
    If i understand them properly they will slaughter a lot of the DRF fleet which will be a severe damper for DRF

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  13. LOL Nice. I still have a lot of friends in PB, thank you. And I'm still logging into EVE every day until my subscriptions run out. I'm just not in 0.0 myself.

    The failed defense of the WH- and surrounding CSAAs was on the 31st. The next morning, Mittens announced that the bulk of the remaining NC would be reset. That went public on kugu almost instantly.

    That said the evac orders were posted June 2, after the failed defense of the key CSAAs on the 31st. It went public the next day. The same day, people right up to Imperian were getting caught evac'ing. So, maybe not a week late. Five days late. ;-)

    Another interesting question is one you didn't ask, though: since the NC supercap fleet did not engage in WH-, it is entirely intact, with only a few minor losses here and there. Presumably, it will disperse to other alliances as individual members decide what they want to do next. Who will the winners be there?

    Amusing side note: one of the few NC supercap losses in the wake of May 31 was a Rag that's been in the NC forever. One PL pilot bragged that they formed 50 supers to kill it in two minutes. Another one cried because the kill happened so fast, he couldn't even whore on it with his non-sebo'ed super. So we're now at a point with supers similar to where we were 18-24 months ago, when BC pilots couldn't get on killmailss because the HACs were killing things too fast. :eyeroll:

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  14. @Mord,"@Mordis - Personally, I blame supercapital proliferation." - lol...never would have guessed.

    @Mordis, "The other is to wonder how much of what has transpired was Dominion....That last one is beyond me. But I'd love to see it considered." - Me too, and I'd love to see the reasoning behind the consideration juxtaposing each issue against one another.

    @Stevie, "4. The point being: I believe that the NC would have crumbled eventually, without PL, NC., or Raiden.. With those alliances, however, the DRF was able to invade the NC and destroy it within short order." - Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Why even bother speculating? Is it personal or for some other reason?

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  15. *"@Mordis" above should be "@Unn Mordardottir". All the Mordness around here is confusing me. ;)

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  16. @Xel Not personal at all, and I don't see where you're picking that up. I'm in Mostly Harmless, so the fall of the NC is not good for me. Sorry for making it sound that way. vOv

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  17. Didn't meant it as an accusation. Just sincerely wondering what made speculating on a moot issue worthwhile. Could have easily been personal enmity toward NC, but I understand now...insider's POV. Very telling. THX for the insight. :)

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