We are at the stake
And bayed about with many enemies;
And some that smile have in their hearts, I fear,
Millions of mischiefs.
William Shakespeare - Julius Caesar
Recent developments in nullsec do not bode well for the future of Honey Badger Coalition (HBC).
Pandemic Legion (PL) exited the the coalition a few weeks back. This was ostensibly due to a little diplomatic hiccup involving PL ships shooting up HBC ships which fanned the flames of mistrust some HBC alliances felt for Legio Pandemica owing to the latter's take-over of coalition leadership following the undermining and subsequent ouster of Test's Montolio. PL took the opportunity to formally separate themselves from HBC. In so doing, however, they maintained proxy control over the HBC by leading behind Pandemic veteran, Sort Dragon, as leader of the HBC.
Recall that in Farms and Fields: Metagame and Breakfast of Champions, I'd pointed out that Clusterfuck Coalition (CFC) would not tolerate HBC as a potential threat to CFC's hegemony over nullsec. I've no doubt that the CFC/Pandemic Legion engineered take-down of Montolio engendered a lot of crocodile smiles and high-fives in the smoke-filled rooms of nullsec. However, the smiles on the CFC side of the table would have faded somewhat at the prospect of PL controlling nullsec's largest coalition.
PL by itself could cause the CFC a great deal of trouble. PL leading nullsec's largest coalition is an 'extinction-level' threat from the CFC's point of view, and can not be tolerated. Montolio, while openly hostile to the CFC, would have been in many ways easier to counter than the subtle knife play Pandemic Legion has shown itself capable of. On the Pandemic Legion side of the fence, control of the HBC afforded PL options and a certain leverage in dealings with the CFC that they were reluctant to throw away. It will not have been lost upon the Pandemic leadership that, without the HBC as a counterbalance, CFC's 'recommendations' to PL will quickly become outright demands and directives.
Thus PL and CFC metagamers circled the ring, fists raised, while declaring mutual respect and permanent affection for one other; the CFC demanding dismemberment (or at least emasculation) of the Honey Badger Coalition, and PL attempting to retain a playable hand against the time when CFC decides that PL's naughty scalawags and pride parades have no place in nullsec's new order.
Then, during fan fest, Sort Dragon announced that HBC would go to war against both Nulli Secunda and Pandemic Legion. Which meant that Sort Dragon was leading the HBC into a war against the Alliance he had recently been part of and plans to return to at some point in the future.
Now, with the non-invasion pact (NIP) between PL and HBC in place, some Honey Badgers assured themselves, this will be a 'fun' war, some of the 'controlled PvP' Pandemic has been promoting. However, it should be noted that, in this situation, the NIP agreement benefits PL far more than it does HBC. While HBC cannot attack PL sovereignty infrastructure there is no prohibition against Nulli attacking HBC sovereignty infrastructure. Which means that PL's sov is safe during the war, while HBC's is a risk. And, depending on the terms of the NIP, PL may be free to drive off HBC supercapitals prior to a Nulli Sov attack or otherwise screening Nulli's sov attack as long as PL doesn't directly attack the structures themselves. After all, grinding structures is not PLs thing. But if Nulli wants to grind stuctures, it's not PL's lookout, nor is it PL's responsibility to preserve HBC systems.
In this way, the war with Nulli could be used to prune back HBC, satisfying the CFC's wants for the moment. At the same time, it would leave Pandemic Legion positioned to control the amount of damage done and emerge with a diminished, but viable ally.
Of course 'dogpiling' is par for the course in nullsec. HBC has created a long list of enemies in its march to power. Many exiles from sovereign nullsec, particularly in the South, will be preparing to savage HBCs flanks if it's attention turns to a Northern war with Nulli and PL. Thus the situation for HBC could spin out of control and deteriorate very quickly. In that case, PL would likely decide to cut it's losses and cherry pick corporations and alliances from the HBC wreckage. Likewise, expect CFC to offer tea, sympathy and refuge under the CFC banner to selected HBC corporations and alliances should HBC begin to crumble.
So, you see, HBC is rather caught in the middle. Without independent leadership, they are well and truly chained to the bear-baiting stake, and bayed about by enemies. Their friends, meanwhile, smile at them; offering assurances of friendship, but no concrete offers of support, and all the while sharpen the knives that will slice and dice HBC's fate. Options for the HBC member alliances are few, and all of them are fraught with risk. If they maintain their present course, the HBC is likely to be slowly torn apart by enemies and friends alike. If a coup displaces Sort Dragon, it will doubtless cause a schism in HBC's ranks, ending the NIP with Pandemic Legion and causing HBC to be quickly torn apart by enemies and friends alike.
There is, however, a third option; one that Test Alliance Please Ignore availed itself of yesterday. Hit the eject button and leave HBC.
In an announcement to Test Alliance Sunday morning, Test's executor BoodaBooda stated that he had been directed by HBC coalition leadership after Fan Fest to assume the roles and duties HBC leadership deemed appropriate to an HBC middle manager. The details are sketchy, but it seems to have amounted to "stable your horse, hand in your pistols and sabre, and take a desk in the coalition cubicle farm". One assumes there was an 'or else', either explicit or implied, attached to the directive. Before Sort's post Fan Festcall with HBC CEOs was complete, BoodaBoodat had negotiated blue standing with Raiden, Tribal Band, Kill it With Fire and The Initiative and initiated plans to leave the HBC and pull Test back into a more defensible space. During the announcement call, a Test officer was in the process of resetting most of the rest of HBC.
It's a risky strategy, to be sure. As nominal leader of the HBC during its rise, Test made a lot of enemies. If Sort Dragon decides that dealing with Test in order to prevent more defections from HBC is a more pressing business than the war with Nulli, Test may find itself dogpiled in short order. In that case Raiden and The Initiative may have difficulty maintaining blue status with Test, what with current HBC management being a stickler for everybody rowing the boat in the same direction. On the other hand, there have been a lot of discontented warriors in HBC this last while. If Sort tries to twist their tails and force them to go after Test Alliance Please Ignore, he may find HBC disintegrating under his feet.
It's interesting to note that Shadoo was on Booda's SOTA call. Asked where Pandemic Legion stood in the matter he replied that their position was unchanged, that PL, while kindly disposed toward Test, would continue to maintain their distance. Asked about whether Goonswarm would support Test in its bid for independence, Eddicted replied that he's spoken to them, but that they were "metagaming" and non-committal. With that, both Pandemic Legion and CFC have chosen to exercise the luxury of sitting back to watch which way the winds blow and then acting accordingly.
Thus do the lords of nullsec smile; and make millions of mischiefs all the while.
One would hope nullsec erupts in gigantic wars that destroy lots and lots of internet spaceships. Destruction of spaceships keeps everyone happy, both the warriors that destroy said ships and the industrials that build the ones that replace them.ReplyDelete
My market has been slow of late. We need war. War is good for business.
Fiddler's Note: With apologies, I'd gotten the name of the SOTA speaker wrong: It was BoodaBoodaand not Endie. I've made the correction above. Also the communications with Sort that precipitated the Test hitting the eject button occurred after Fan Fest, though Booda was hearing some of it second hand while in Iceland.ReplyDelete
BoodaBooda's update is published on EveNews24 and includes some interesting details viz Sort Dragon snapping the leash on HBC CEOs.
Such as: "He said that he had tried to talk to TEST CEOs who were all very unhappy with me and the alliance, and that 3 of them would join his alliance over ours. He explicitly told me how I needed to change TEST to better comply with his demands. He threatened us, saying TEST was doomed to fail, and that we should pull back to Fountain and regroup before coming back under his command. He told me that if Sort Dragon says we do something, we do it without question or hesitation."
Fiddler's Note, Part Deux: Update to Test's blue list: Raiden, Kill it With Fire and Tribal Band. The Initiative is, I understand, temporarily blue to allow them to evacuate Test Alliance space.ReplyDelete
I do follow all of this... and I am interested in your take on it and the opinions of others...ReplyDelete
But I swear I could give eff all for all of Nullsec... All this deep, backstabbing, lying, cheating, two-faced "keep your friends close but your enemies closer" politicking is so wearying to the soul when all I wanna do when I log on is share good times and good fights with friends...
I have my fill to "here" of politics at work and IRL, why and how in the gods names do people find any joy in that crap?
Tur (Nice name, by the way)Delete
Funny game, Eve. It can be played at so many levels and everybody seems to feel their way of play is the "right" way of play.
To the people presently occupying the smoke filled rooms of nullsec, the nuanced dance of metagame is Eve at its most elegant. A metagamer who never logs into the game may have more influence on in-game events than an FC who leads a vast fleet of super-caps.
And while you may giv eff-all for all of nullsec, that doesn't mean nullsec doesn't have its eye on you. The days where they play their game and yoy play yours are rushing to a close. For good or for ill, the lords of nullsec are looking to extend their reach into nullsec and highsec.
They enjoy it because it is either not their daily life where they tire of it or it is their daily life and they enjoy it. Many are good at it and that is where they get their satisfaction.Delete
Not everyone wants to just log in and hang out to unwind. It's what makes the game so interesting.
"why and how in the gods names do people find any joy in that crap?"Delete
It's the soap opera. It's hilarious and exciting to be part of a collapsing coalition.
TEST is currently running a Rebel Alliance gimmick with BoodaBooda as Luke, DurrHurrDurr as Chewie and Sort Dragon as Emperor Palpatine. It's hilarious to fly in fleets with people saying "Red Five standing by" etc.
I picked Three P O :)
Ah, but The Mittani® is Emperor Palpatine.
For myself, I call Yoda.
Or rather, Yoda call, do I.
"The days where they play their game and yoy play yours are rushing to a close. For good or for ill, the lords of nullsec are looking to extend their reach into nullsec and highsec."ReplyDelete
(I think you mean "...reach into lowsec".) In my four years in EVE, null sec politics was something that played out far away over the horizon from my game. One could simply ignore it for the most part, although there were times when some smaller null sec alliances would come take over a low sec system or two and make life there miserable for small gang pirates. If you speak truth, I wonder how the landscape of low and high sec will change as a result. And I wonder how that will drive changes in the game by the designers.
@Mynxee - Yes, you're right. I did mean lowsec. Good to know you're still reading.Delete
My view from inside TEST is that all the fault for this lies firmly with Sort Dragon. He's a great FC and we liked going on his fleets. However he ultimatumed TEST management, did it in public passive aggressively rather than privately, raged at BoodaBooda privately.ReplyDelete
A lot of us reading his Ask Me Anything thread on the coalition internal forums saw the split coming, especially with BB posting a terse "I'm wondering why I'm finding this out here first" comment.
He completely misunderstood TEST, He thought that because we came on his fleets the line membership was firmly behind him and not loyal to our alliance first. He was also privately very greedy for space and wanted a region, preferably Delve, for his personal alliance which consisted of half a dozen PL bitter vets and a couple of ex-THORN corps.
I don't think he even realises now that everyone currently in "his coalition" is almost certainly privately negotiating their exit strategies.
Hmmm. When you think about it, it could be that the folks backing Sort knew he couldn't lead HBC successfully. His absence of authority was evident after the PL diplo hiccup last month. And yet, Shadoo left him in charge of HBC when PL left.
So, either Shadoo is a poor judge of character, or he knew he was sowing some serious dysfunction by letting Sort lead the coalition.
Makes you think, doesn't it?
He he, it certainly does.Delete