"Noise is the opposite of information."
- Fischer Black
What remains of Honey Badger Coalition (HBC) after the departure of Test and company continues to unravel and that which remains lacks both the numbers and the organizational coherence to retain the HBC name. HBC is effectively ended and even among those alliances who've not formally announced their departure from the coalition, there's a general consensus that this is the case. In place of the HBC we now have a swarm of alliances. Some, weary of being forced to toe the HBC line, have determined to go it alone. Most, however seem to be trying to reform themselves into a number of very loosely coupled alliances. No formal coalitions with a centralized command and executive structures seem in the making at this point. The newly separated alliances are, at least for now, embracing a live-free-or-die philosophy.
Test Alliance Please Ignore's Booda may not have been able to rope in Raiden as permanent blue after all. Word
is there's been a change of management in Raiden's house and that, while
Raiden's exited HBC, they won't be maintaining a long-term NAP with
Test. Call it a plausible rumor for the moment. No reason given except
'other interests' on Raiden's part, which could mean they've gotten a
The primary beneficiary of these events is the ClusterFuck Coalition (CFC). The breakdown of the HBC will have CFC breathing easier and assuming no
extinction-level threats to them remain in nullsec. CFC will assume
ex-HBC alliances will fight among themselves, making non-CFC and non-PL regions a new thunder-dome. That will leave CFC's leadership with the leisure to play selected combatants off
against the other while they tear each other to rags; very much the game
their leadership prefers. Expect occasional CFC interventions, but none
that puts the CFC at risk.
There's some chatter of CFC
taking on PL, the last credible threat to CFC left standing. My guess
is that CFC will take no action against PL for the time being, but
anti-PL sentiment within CFC's leadership could change that. However, CFC leadership isn't the type to bet the house on final Jeopardy
if they're well ahead in the game. That could change if PL looks to be
benefiting too much from the current upheaval.
While it's always possible that some alliances blown free of HBC's gravity well could make trouble in CFC space, CFC leadership seems to regard this as a
low-probability event and one that can be dispatched with relative ease
should it occur. Nascent threats will be sought out early and strangled in their cribs. None of the former HBC alliances, it is reasoned, will
want to draw CFC's attention, let alone its ire, lest they become extinct former HBC alliances.
The only real down-side for the CFC is
that the HBC crash has created a cacophony of noise and an explosion of
new variables in nullsec's information flows. This will make the nullsec
board more difficult for CFC to
predict and control. Unexpected invasions or instability in CFC space
would not be good for their post-Odessey plans for standing up an
economic powerhouse independent of high sec. The absence of a coherent and controllable HBC will
also make organizing cartels for controlling the price of high-value
nullsec goods and materials much more difficult.
After Hours Podcast featuring John McClain
4 hours ago