There's an old story about a man of faith who prays mightily to win the lottery. Year after year he prays with all his heart, yet he never, ever wins the lottery. One day, the man dies. In heaven, he approaches God and asks with some asperity why God refused to let him win the lottery despite his steadfast prayers.
God rolls his eyes and says "You never bought a ticket."
Over at Haberdashers Run Amok, Corelin was waiting for me to do a write up on the fate of the nullsec Carebear after the fall of NC. Alas, my psychic powers are a bit out of tune these days, so I failed to pick up on his expectations.
Sigh. My bad.
Happily, Corelin didn't sit around wallowing in disappointment. He bought a ticket. He stepped up to the plate and wrote his own post about the prospects for nullsec bears. Well done, Corelin.
Following up on his comments, I don't think the end of NC spelled disaster for nullsec bears. As Corelin points out, most of the bears who migrated to nullsec in 2010 are still in nullsec. As I've written elsewhere, they are a tougher breed of bear than their highsec cousins. Some have retreated to safer high and low security regions to await the outcomes of the DRF invasions, but those are in the minority.
Some nullsec bears have barely changed location since the NC fall, and rent or hold Sov in and about DRF territory. That's pretty quiet space these days, and quiet space is meat and potatoes to a mining or building bear. An opportunistic bear might see his way to a tidy living without having to move much of his stuff. New landlord? OK. Bears are nothing if not adaptable.
Other bears have moved on, either following their NC alliance or shifting over to another alliance heading in a more preferred direction. Some nullsec bears have become fair hands at PvP, and trade fours between building stuff and blowing stuff up. I know a number of bears who both build and pilot supercapitals. That, my friends, is one valuable breed of bear. No, they're not going anywhere.
Most folk who hold sov want a good set of bears on the payroll. The Dominion sov rules have done their work. Carebears are integrated into nullsec life and it's going to take a major rewrite of the sov rules to dislodge them. By all accounts, such changes as are on the board for nullsec will not weaken the nullsec bear's position. Quite the contrary.
After all, we're not a bunch of fragile PvP divas. We're tough.