The Banality of Nullsec

"You're a dull boy. Dull as plainsong. La-la-la, forever on one note."
                     James Goldman - The Lion in Winter

If I haven't been writing too much about nullsec, it's simply that there isn't much of interest in nullsec about which to write. The big picture for the second quarter of the year has been the triumph of the supercapital, the fall of the Northern Coalition and the transformation of Real Money Trading's role from CCP's public enemy number one to that of a critical revenue stream in CCP's business strategy.

As we roll into the third quarter of 2011, the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassal alliances hold roughly seventy percent of nullsec.In the North, Goonswarm suddenly finds itself subcapital specialists in a game dominated by hostile supercapital fleets. The Goons feign nonchalance while scrambling to cobble together a credible supercapital force - a task made easier by all the corporations cast loose upon the flood by the Northern Coalition's disintegration.

In the South, other elements of the Deklein Coalition have tied their fortunes to Fountain and Querious. This has stretched thin the tether between members of DC, further weakening the Goon's position. Meanwhile, Against All Authorities (-A-) and their allies are preparing for invasion. Recall that -A- reclaimed their former stomping grounds in Teneferis, lost to them in last September's invasion of their space by White Noise, The Initiative and Pandemic Legion. As I wrote last month, White Noise simply pulled out of the region, intending to take it back once matters with the NC were resolved.

Delve and Querious are the beaches upon which many refugee's from NC's ill-starred fortunes have washed ashore. Some arrive in the form of slimmed down NC alliances, while others have migrated  to alliances already resident. Everyone seems to want a piece of that storied space. With the DRF & Co. occupying so much high of the high value nullsec real estate, they're among the few remaining regions worth a serious tussle that aren't locked down by larger powers.

PL makes noises about including the DRF among their targets once their current contract ends, but I don't take that seriously for a number of reasons I'll go into another time. If PL does attack the Russians, PL will either be gone or much diminished by the turn of the year. They might seek permission to hunt DRF vassals. However, most likely they'll join the mosh pit that Delve is becoming and play there until the DRF or its vassals need assistance and call them back to heel.

So. What can we look for in the next quarter? Same song, slightly different words. Indications are that CCP will not apply any significant nerf to the supercapitals in the foreseeable future. These very expensive, must-have toys are, simply put, too valuable as a potential source of income for CCP as they plan extending microtransactions beyond vanity items to key elements of Eve-play.

The game deteriorates. CCP, hyper-focused on turning the player community into a massively parallel ATM has lost sight of Eve as an entertainment. The imbalance introduced by the enhanced supercapitals only grows worse. The Incarna technology injection has bogged down game performance. And Helicity Bosun, the person who caught CCP in an outright lie viz the intent of microtransactions has been banned from the game.

It's going to be a long Summer.

Love's Labors Lost

Eve online has come up with a new scheme for monetizing third party applications and websites.

Up to now, Eve hasn't allowed third party applications to charge for the use of web applications or websites that leverage CCP APIs or other intellectual property - like those slick Eve-fonts and graphics CCP hands out. That restriction on monetizing has been the downfall of a number of apps and websites, including the much-loved but underfunded Capsuleer phone app. 

The world is about to change. In exchange for $99 and signing a commercial licensing agreement with CCP, you may now can charge subscription fees, receive donations, sell your app in an app-stores. This should go a long way toward making some of the more sophisticated third parts tools more financially viable.

"But Mord," you might say, "Aren't there successful apps and websites like  Dotlan and Eve Tribune that already solicit donations in order to keep the doors of their websites open? "

Why yes. You're absolutely right. That loophole will close. Sites like Dotlan that leverage Eve API and solicit donations to pay operational costs are regarded by CCP as commercial sites and will be required to sign up for the program and fork over the licensing fee. Eve Tribune seems a dicier case. They do solicit donations, but how much they use CCP intellectual property is open to interpretation. If they've signed an agreement to allow use of Eve graphics and fonts, chances are they'll be required dig into their wallet in exchange for the privilege of continuing to do what they've been doing for years.

Oh, and sites that take payment or donations in ISK are commercial as well. This would likely include special activity sites like Hulkageddon. Blogs like Rixx Javix's Evoganda, which hosts event's like Death Race that include an ISK based sign up fee (which is used for prizes) may have to sign up as a commercial app, or cease such operation. Even owners of non commercial apps and sites will be required to join up, albeit without charge (for now).

Now, given the number of third party apps out there, $99 is not a great deal of money for a corporation like CCP. So why do this? I suspect the goal of the program is two-fold.

First of all, CCP would like to make third party apps more viable. The ability to monetize a site or app should mean that the better, more innovative of them will become more viable and hang around longer - thereby improving the Eve and Dust514 experience at no cost to CCP.  Further, if the third-party developer community thrives and starts making big bucks, this program will leave CCP well positioned to demand its cut of the income. 

Meanwhile, the registration process for commercial apps establishes a precedence of CCP maintaining a degree of control over these third party apps and allows CCP to define its intellectual property boundaries. All very important for future lawsuits. It also allows CCP some leverage with regard to content control. If a licensed web site is doing or saying things that CCP doesn't approve of, CCP can simply threaten loss of that license to pull said web site back into line. So, to a large extent, this initiative appears to be as much about control of the Eve and Dust brands and non CCP content about those brands as it is about money.

It will be interesting to see how aggressively and how far CCP pushes the new regime. For many third party purveyors of Eve and Dust514 content, particularly the donation sites, this will be a forced change to their business model.  Some of them will prosper under the new regime. Others will fold up tents rather than pay for what has been, to date, a labor of love.

But then, CCP doesn't get paid for labors of love.

The Tipping Point

If you've been looking at the current Eve influence maps these days, you'll have noted that the Drone Russian Forces (DRF) and their vassal alliances Raiden[DOT], Evoke, Northern Coalition[DOT] and Pandemic Legion control a long arc of nullsec space that runs from the Vale/Tribute border in northern nullsec to the Omist/Teneferis border in the South.


Presently DRF and company are battering at the doors of Tribute which, I believe, has been the primary target of the DRF's campaign from the beginning. Tribute is a rich area from a resource perspective. Larded on top of their existing ISK generating capacity, Tribute would make the DRF a financial power with an ISK earning capacity that would dwarf that of any other Eve coalition. In his most recent Ten Ton Hammer column, The Mittani points out the leverage all that DRF wealth buys.

While the DRF are no slouches when it comes to PvP, the core NC alliances' PvP skills had matured in 2010, particularly in the area of capital fleets, and had shown themselves a match for the Russians in the field. The quality of NC fleet commanders tended to be spotty but, properly lead, the NC forces had shown themselves to be capable fighters in both the capital and subcapital aspects of the game. Early efforts by the DRF to establish themselves in Geminate were turned back by the NC with relative ease.

Stymied on the military front, the DRF unlimbered the financial side of their arsenal. Well placed bribes provided the DRF with an initial foothold in Geminate that the Drone Russians could not win by force of arms. When that was in danger of collapsing under pressure from the NC, the DRF purchased the services of Pandemic Legion to attack Vale and reduce pressure on the DRF forces in Geminate.

The sheer number of Supercapitals the DRF was able to purchase ensured not only numeric superiority in the invaders' Supercapital fleets, but also ensured a ready supply of replacements for supercapitals lost in combat. Thus, the DRF could not only deploy superior numbers across multiple points of attack, they could do so more aggressively, knowing their losses could be easily replaced.

As of this writing the DRF and their vassal alliances have consolidated their holds on both Geminate and Vale of the Silent, and have established a foothold in Tribute. Morsus Mihi and Razor Alliance, along with the remnants smaller NC alliances are attempting to push them back out. However, sov combat is a game won and lost by supercapital fleets, and the DRF are presently holding that "I Win" button. Barring internal division within the DRF and vassals, or an unexpected threat to the DRF renter space, the writing is on the wall.

Much has been made of Against All Authorities' (-A-) assault on the southern border of White Noise in Teneferis. However Against All Authorities (-A-) doesn't appear to have followed up their conquest of that region by applying pressure to White Noise holdings in Detorid. Instead, White Noise appears to be pulling back in that region without any encouragement, probably by way of adjusting their nullsec footprint to accommodate their newly conquered territories.

Strategic Operations Brigade (SOB), a new DRF vassal alliance made up largely of former RAGE corporations, has been given sovereignty in the Detorid constellations closest to the sole Teneferis entry system.  Thus, enemies recently defeated by the DRF are turned into loyal vassals, beholden to White Noise. In return for a slice of nullsec, SOB will act as a buffer for White Noise on their frontier with -A-. The financial cost of holding the Detorid systems is moved off White Noise balance sheets.

Using vassals like SOB in this manner serves the DRF from a public relations perspective as well. As the sov map stands today, the DRF and their vassal alliances are a clear and present danger to the remaining free alliances of nullsec. Even the Mittani and his Goons, PvP rich, but supercapital poor, are concerned that they are next on the block if Razor Alliance and Morsus Mihi fall. By farming out space to vassals, the DRF disguises the effective size of its sphere of influence and creates the illusion of a politically diverse nullsec. 

Now, you'll note that I've listed Pandemic Legion above as a DRF vassal alliance.

I've written elsewhere with regard to PL's limitations as a gun-for-hire business venture. In essence PL's predisposition to griefing makes them an unreliable entity with which to do business. Eschewing the burdens of holding sovereignty of their own, and with the DRF as it's sole major customer, PL has limited options for revenue generation, particularly for the rank and file pilots. Ironically, the DRF's current success means even fewer customers for PL. Every new system the DRF takes, each new alliance it takes under its wing, is one less target against which PL can make take out a contract as contracting against the DRF and vassals has the disadvantage of alienating a profitable client. At the moment, over half of nullsec is under the DRF umbrella and therefore unavailable to PL for making mayhem; its self-proclaimed raison d'etre.

Sooner or later, the interests of PL and the DRF are going to come into conflict. I'm sure both PL and the DRF are mindful of this and giving thought to life after the NC campaign. PL presently has value to the DRF as a useful weapon against its enemies. However, with the number of viable enemies dwindling, the DRF may well be wondering if PL has outlived its use if it can't be domesticated.

PL will be mindful of the same. Law and order is not PL's friend. The surest way to kill off PL is to deny it safe haven - to harry it throughout nullsec, no matter where it runs. With the DRF and friends in charge of the better part of nullsec, and the number of alternative options shrinking, PL may be thinking that the time has come to start trimming back the DRF kudzu grass - to make prey of the DRF herd. PL would be wise to consider the possibility that its employer is thinking the same thoughts and might be wondering if it's in the DRF's interests to swap its role as PL's employer for that of its undertaker. 

After all, once the NC is laid low it would be a simple matter for the DRF to muster the PL supercapital fleet deep in DRF space and trap/destroy them there. Once PL's supercapital teeth are drawn, the DRF has the money and the ships to deny PL safe harbor anywhere in nullsec.

So, PL is coming up on a choice: To wear the DRF's collar, or bite the hand that feeds it and run for the wilderness. This assumes, of course, that the DRF is going to give PL the option. If PL chooses the freedom of the open plains, it's going to need allies. Which means it will have to convince the remaining free nullsec alliances that they have enough common cause to put old grudges by, and then join (and possibly lead) them against the DRF bloc.

Yeah. You heard me. Pandemic Legion may be free nullsec's best hope. I love my irony with a twist.

The AUR and the Super Carrier

With the coming of micro-transactions to New Eden, I now understand CCP Greyscale's reluctance to take action against the over-powered supercapital class of ships.

It's all about the AUR.

In their latest devblog posting CCP announced how micro-transactions will work in Eve Online.

To break it down:

1. You pay in AUR for Vanity items (i.e. clothes/accessories for your avatar or that alliance insignia and paint job for your ship)
2. AUR can only be bought by redeeming PLEX
3. Vanity items can be resold in game after their initial purchase, but only for ISK

"But Mord," you might ask, "Why do we need a new currency? Why can't I simply buy vanity goods directly with ISK and be done with it? And what does this have to do with supercapitals?"

I'm glad you asked that. You're being particularly insightful today. Bear with me, this is going to be a slightly  round-about trip.

See, the need to use PLEX to buy AUR creates a new, secondary market for the PLEX.

Up until now, PLEX were reimbursed in place of paying directly for a subscription. A purchased PLEX entered the system and, in theory, didn't leave the system until it was reimbursed for play time or used as a donation.

Now, recall back in January when in The Coming Super Carrier Buff I expressed puzzlement over CCP Greyscale's uncharacteristic concern for Super Carrier pilots in the event their wildly overpowered ships were brought back into balance. 

CCP Greyscale seems strangely resistant to the idea of reducing the Super Carriers utility out of apparent concern for the lot of Super Carrier pilots. Simply nerfing Super Carriers, Greyscale said, "imposes a great cost on [Super Carrier] pilots".

Now that's a bit strange.

In imposing nerfs on various ships over the years CCP's policy over the years has been to put the health of the game over the interests of pilots of a class of ship than had gotten out of balance.  Investing heavily in any overpowered ship or technology has always been a calculated risk in New Eden, as such ships are routinely targeted by CCP for re-balancing.  We are all aware that, unlike Star Trek's Scotty, CCP can change the laws of physics on you.

But, suddenly, crocodile tears are being shed for the poor, poor Super Carrier pilots.

I suggested at the time that there might be a profit motive behind Greyscale's sudden empathy for pilots of a particular ship class. After all, I pointed out, if the ISK needed to finance supercapitals and the expensive modules and implants needed for them are being bought via PLEX, that's money in the bank for CCP. In that case, CCP Greyscale would every reason for keeping Super Carriers and Titans the overpowering, 'must have' ship they remain today.

Some of you, like the Sage of Canada, Kirith Kodachi, correctly pointed out that, in theory, the transaction should be a wash for CCP. 

 "That nets out to about $700 US worth of Plex purchases to buy a bargain-basement priced Nyx in-game. [...] That, my friends, is money in the bank for CCP assuming those ISK are bought through CCP's Plex program."

But those purchased PLEXes can only be used for paying for someone's game time. Thus that 700 dollars replaced someone else's 700 dollars of subscription fees. The only way CCP makes money is if the PLEX are destroyed.

Now PLEX can be destroyed.

Under CCP's new micro-transactions scheme, a PLEX used for AUR exits the system. It cannot be used to purchase game time.

Mind, even before the AUR, CCP was making money on PLEX purchases. But that was money at the margins; PLEX languishing in the in-game speculation market, or keeping subscribers unable to pay in cash in the game.

With AUR, CCP finally has a true PLEX sink that costs CCP next to nothing. When a PLEX is burned for AUR it exits the game and CCP's balance sheets will reflect it as almost pure profit.

Now, notice in the dev blog announcement that CCP Zulu says they will monitor the PLEX market to make sure it doesn't get out of control. This probably means that CCP intends to inject PLEX into the system if their price gets too high or buy up PLEX if the market gets flooded and the price crashes. This is the sort of mechanism a government might use to control inflation or deflation in a market economy and the sort of move I'd expect Dr. E to push.

This is good for you, because it ensures the price of a PLEX won't go completely out of sight. However, it also ensures you won't get crazy-wild discounts on PLEX either. It is exceptionally good for CCP in either event, because it allows them to maintain the PLEX market at a level that ensures an optimal flow of PLEX purchases.

CCP is a for profit company. When CCP Greyscale suddenly breaks pattern and begins to act out of character, a for profit motive is the likely diagnosis.

Diagnosis confirmed. Cha-ching.

Gaming on the Chain Gang

Just a quick pointer to a story of interest.

Some of you may have run across this story in the Guardian already. Seems that hard labor in the Chinese prison system can mean more than just making little rocks out of big ones.

Seems the guards in the scheme described in the article had their own little internet enterprise going. After a hard day of work for the state, the inmates were put to work in the World of Warcraft universe, mining gold, building characters and collecting artifacts which the guards then sold for real money. Inmates were given quotas and the shifts were reported to run as long as twelve hours.

Mind, I've known some Eve players on the same schedule, but usually without the mandatory rock-breaking before hand. Plus they usually have the solace of alcohol and no one breaks their fingers if they don't make their ISK quota.

Makes you think, though. Has anyone else noticed how resistant the Drone Russians are to failscades? How they're always up for those alarm clock CTAs? How amazing their fleet participation is? It's like they don't have anything to do but play the game.

Hmmm.

Sock Puppet

In his latest Eve Evolved column, Brendan Drain over at Massively leaps to the defense of CCP's recent buff to supercapitals. 

Now, I had pretty well knocked the dust of that decision from my sandals. I'd put the matter behind me and moved on. Normally, I would take the high road; be and let be and all that. After all, I've said my peace on the matter. Water under the bridge. Done is done, right? 

Unfortunately, Brendan linked to my recent Fiddler's Edge post on the matter by way of illustrating the opinions of those with whom he disagreed. Worse yet, he didn't have the good grace to mount a meaningful counter-argument. Now it's personal.

*cracks knuckles*

If you follow Brendan's column, you'll note he gets a lot of interviews with and information from the Eve Online design and development teams. They seem on good terms. He has, as they say, access.

For those of you not familiar with how western journalism works, this sort of access is almost never free. It’s usually paid for by way of an informal tit for tat arrangement. Such arrangements are rarely explicitly laid out and are often cultivated by the source over time. In exchange for interviews, scoops and insider tidbits, the journalist in question is expected to avoid embarrassing the source.

It’s assumed a journalist with the privilege of access will not ask tough questions or publish embarrassing facts about the source. On occasion the journalist is expected to act as a mouthpiece for the source when said source wants to express an opinion or leak information without doing so directly. When bad press about the source does surface, the journalist with access generally contributes to the subject by delivering the source’s side of the story or stands mute, delivering nothing at all.

In short, journalists who get too close to their source become apologists for the source; unpaid members of the source’s public relations staff rather than actual journalists.

They become, as I like to call them, media sock puppets.

I suspect Brendan Drain may have turned the corner into sock-puppetdom.  His language in the column suggests he and CCP have discussed and are of one mind on the subject matter. In expressing their intents with regard to jump bridges and force projection he speaks on CCP's behalf without needing to reference interviews, papers or devblogs. It would also explain why Brendan comes to this subject so late in the game, well after the change has been put in place. This suggests that CCP is still getting a lot of churn from the user base on the subject and Brendan is acting as a surrogate to help them calm the waters.

Besides, sock-puppetdom is the only excuse I can come up with for the tortured logic that comprises his latest column.

A central assertion in Brendan’s argument is that jump bridges needed to be nerfed because they were causing a decline in the amount of PvP occurring in Eve Online.

“One of the strange revelations to come out of the last big CSM summit was the fact that the amount of PvP going on in EVE is declining. A big culprit behind this could be jump bridges, which currently provide a completely safe way to move ships across huge distances.”

Now, Brendan duly supplies a link to the “strange revelations” that underpin his argument. However the provided link leads only to an interview he conducted during the CSM summit and published on January 23 on Massively. In that interview Brendan himself reveals the aforementioned revelations, incorporating them into his questions as givens. In other words, the only source Brendan cites as evidence in support of this assertion is Brendan.   

To the best of my knowledge CCP has not made available to the public the source data or analysis methods used to describe the decline of PvP that has them so worried. Likewise, Brendan provides no data analysis, even at the highest levels, to support the supposed falloff of PvP in Eve Online; the very lynchpin of his argument for hobbling jump bridges.

For the sake of argument, let's give that a pass and accept a falloff of PvP in Eve as a given. Even then CCP and their sock puppet require a second leap of faith from us. Neither CCP nor Brendan has provided any evidence of a causal relationship between Jump Bridges and PvP falloff. In fact there is not, to my knowledge, evidence showing even a reasonable correlation between the two.

Jump bridges have been a part of Eve Online since the Revelations II release in June of 2007. Thus, they’ve been a part of nullsec for almost four years. CCP Greyscale should be more aware of this than most as he authored a devblog entry on July 7 of that year providing clarifications on the use of the “new toy”. 

Now, nearly four years after jump bridges were introduced, we are expected to accept on blind faith that they are suddenly a major contributor to a relatively recent phenomenon. The reasoning on this point is so weak that Brendan is left with nothing to offer the reader but the limp assessment that jump bridges “could be a big culprit” behind the supposed decline in PvP.

In other words, CCP is making a wild-assed guess and Brendan Drain doesn’t have the journalistic chops to call them on it.  

Much of Brendan’s article occupies itself with a discussion on force projection, and argues several times that jump bridges are a component of CCP's force projection problem. However, he dismisses his own point when he states that the nerf of jump bridges has nothing to do with addressing the force projection problem.

"The sentiment that has been ringing throughout EVE's blogging community is that changing jump bridges without changing other force-projection abilities is a massive mistake. However, these jump bridge changes aren't designed to tackle the issue of force projection. They're specifically dealing with a travel safety factor that should never have been built into the system in the first place. Force projection is case for another time and place, and when viewed in isolation, the jump bridge changes look a lot more reasonable."

Oy

Having spent the bulk of his column associating jump bridges with force projection, Brendan is now stating that nerfing jump bridges has nothing to do with force projection because the intent of the change had to do with making travel less safe. This utterly ignores the fact that, by Brendan's own definition, altering jump bridges will impact force projection. With supercapital force projection left unhindered in any practical way, nerfing jump bridges has tilted the balance of power even further toward those alliances with the most supercapitals. CCP's intended outcomes are rather beside the point. 

Brendan seems to think that, as long as CCP's intentions are good, outcomes don't matter. In fact the opposite is true.

Brendan seems to assume that the primary reason for using jump bridges is the "safety factor" - to move in safety within an alliance's space. If he or the CCP gang believe that they haven't done their homework. Safety comes from a good intel network that detects and quickly reports enemy gangs so they can be either avoided or expunged. 

While jump bridges can be used for safety's sake, they are more commonly used to reduce onerous travel time within alliance space. This allows players to spend time playing the game rather than dragging ass through 20 jumps in order to pick up new fittings for their Zealot. This change, in and of itself, will have minimal impact the safety of a player while in alliance territory. If Brendan or CCP took the time to survey nullsec players regarding how they use jump bridges rather than simply assuming their suppositions to be correct, they'd know this. 

I've held forth elsewhere regarding the notion that nullsec, by definition, should be less safe than lowsec. Nullsec doesn't mean security can't be had. Rather, it means that the only security you have is the security you yourselves can enforce. That is pure sandbox. 

Finally, Brendan holds that the jump bridge changes are reasonable if viewed in isolation. If jump bridges functioned in isolation, that would be a sensible approach. However, they do not. They are a component in a larger system and changes to them have to be viewed in a systemic context. You can't simply ignore part of that system because it doesn't fit with your desired game play paradigm. 

That's not design. That's called going to your happy place.

I understand the lure of sock-puppetdom. Nobody wants to shred their own meal ticket. If Brendan speaks unpleasant truths in his column to the folks at CCP they may respond by reducing his access. He may no longer be given routine interviews with their employees or be as well received at summits and fan fests (assuming they invite him at all). Reporters and columnists, as much as anyone else, like to be liked by those with access to useful information.

Having access is nice. However one should never forget that it comes at a price that can only be paid with one's integrity.

Zombie Apocalypse

The US Center for Disease Control wants you to prepare for the coming zombie apocalypse.

Really. No kidding.

Please follow the link provided below and make sure you have the recommended zombie apocalypse preparedness kit ready in the event the slack-jawed little brain suckers start shambling down a street or dark alley near you.



Yeah, I know. Zombie apocalypses may seem a bit off the beaten track for The Edge. However, the importance of planning for nullsec disasters being the subject of my upcoming post, I thought it would make a nice little lead-in. Besides, zombies notwithstanding, the underpinning message is an important one in light of recent natural disasters.


This has been a Fiddler's Edge public service announcement