Drums In the Deep

While my research librarian and I wipe away dust and cobwebs and air out the offices at Fiddler's Edge, I've been thinking about recent events in New Eden. Or, to be more precise, I've been thinking about the absence of events in New Eden.

Yes, I know. Much has gone on within CCP.

It turns out the Hosne Mubarek school of customer relations is not a strong business model.  Even a loyal customer will take his or her business elsewhere if one takes said loyalty for granted; doubly so if one is outright rude and condescending in the process.  Mind you, the genetic material that makes for good customer relations managers likely runs a bit thin amongst a people whose ancestors had names like "Killer Hrap", "Sigvat the Red" and "Arni the Bitter", and whose most famous literary figure was axed to death in his home.  Nevertheless, even in Reykjavik the maxim of catching more flies with honey than with vinegar holds true.

The near collapse of Hilmar's business plan and the resulting emphasis on Ships in Space for the Winter Expansion of Eve Online has a been good fodder for Eve bloggers and podcasters, and a good thing; there's been precious little action of any consequence to write about in New Eden itself.

The nullsec board is set in pretty much the same configuration as at midSummer. The DRF and their vassals rest easily 'pon their starry beds, occupying the better part of nullsec and renting it out at a tidy profit. The only change evident from that quarter is the transition of the DRF vassals from NAP to NIP.  Delve is still standing in as PvP central. Against All Authorities (-A-) is still in Catch. All in all, the only thing notable seems to be the absence of anything notable.

Mind, I'm keeping an eye on CVA.

Way back in the Spring, Curatoris Veritatis Alliance's then leader Aralis, having failed time and again to reestablish CVA in Providence, left the alliance and the game. The game mechanics, he stated in his farewell address, were the cause of his failure.

CCP have made it clear they have no intention of fixing Dominion and there is thus no hope that what I wanted to do can ever be done. I don’t mind a hard road, I’ve been struggling to keep things going and hope alive since Dominion hit. Trying to do something impossible is just stupid and I don’t wish to stray from the path in Eve and CCP have made it painfully obvious they don’t intend to fix Dominion. 

Since his departure CVA has returned to Providence and managed to hold onto the space they picked up with the departure of Northern Coalition[DOT] and Ev0ke for points North. Leo D'Green was named head of CVA at the time of Aralis' departure. Indications are that D'Green reversed Aralis' practice of burning bridges with allies and began building a few instead. I'll have to look into whether D'Green is still at the CVA helm. If so he deserves credit for steadying that Alliance and guiding them back from exile in Catch and lowsec.

The fact that White Noise and NC[DOT] still hold key Providence gateway systems to Catch and Kari, and that CVA is engaged in a Sov fight with the much smaller Care Factor (CF) suggests CVA is still in recovery mode and adapting to the present reality of supercapital dominated warfare. However, the decision of many nullsec alliances to wait for the Winter Supercapital Nerf before engaging in serious sov actions has likely given CVA much needed breathing room with which to rebuild both its combat capacity and it's list of allies. It's an ill wind that blows no one good.

Which brings us back to the Winter Expansion. Driven by a need to shore up their subscriber base, CCP seems willing to take a more aggressive hand at curbing the supercapital beast than was previously indicated. Many nullsec corporations and alliances, dispossessed by supercapital fleets and nursing grudges, have been waiting for changes that will make those ships somewhat less than the "I Win" button they are today. The announced changes may satisfy them and make nullsec's supercapital-oriented powers more cautious about calling in the supercapital blob. With that in mind, knives are being sharpened and plans formed.

The DRF, meanwhile, will not be idle. The rich regions they have parceled out amongst themselves and their allies generate vast incomes for those alliances. Even if their supercapital fleets are less potent after the Winter Expansion, their large stockpile of the ships mean they can deploy them with abandon and simply replace any losses. Further, those deep pockets will put the DRF at the front of the line, positioned to outbid all comers when the new t3 battlecruisers make their debut. And then there's out and out bribery. Enemies who can not be beaten or intimidated can be bought in whole or in part. 

There is a sound of drums in the deep. War, like Winter, is coming.

Paradigm Shift

One of the reasons for the exceedingly high casualties in the American Civil War was that long-held tactics, that were based on the short range poor and accuracy of smooth-bore muskets, came up against the common use of the .58 caliber rifled musket by troops of the day.

It took a long time for both sides to figure out that many tactics that had been chapter and verse, drilled into generations of officers since the the American Revolution, were now recipes for military disaster.

Throughout the history of war, the side that first recognized and adapted to changes in the military paradigm met with success. Those who did not recognize or adapt to change, and insisted on fighting the old fight rather than adapting to the new fight, generally ended up holding a big bag of failure at the end of hostilities.

Atlas Alliance may be reprising that old song.

Recently, Atlas space in Insmother was under attack by Legion of xXDEATHXx, Red Alliance, White Noise (aka the Russian Coalition, or RUS). Pandemic Legion, had been hired by RUS to support the invasion.

Atlas was successful in holding or repulsing the initial attacks, holding down a key system in C-J6MT and making effective use of cap ships against the massed forces of RUS/PL. After a number of failures to loosen the Atlas grip on the system, a new tactic was devised that leveraged the Dominion sovereignty rules. Rather than continuing to batter against C-J6MT with their entire force, PL engaged the main Atlas fleet, pinning it in place while the RUS fleets began to attack the systems around C-J6MT. 

In the old days, Atlas could have deployed a small force with lots of POS to delay the enemy in peripheral systems while defending the main system. Grinding down the defending POS would have been time consuming and ship intensive for the invaders, giving Atlas elbow room to respond. With Dominion era rules, however, an alliance must actively defend systems, or quickly lose them. To do so, an alliance have have the numbers, mobility and command structure necessary to effectively meet the enemy in multiple locations at once.

Atlas didn't adapt immediately to the change in tactics, and was unable to respond to PL/RUS attacks on the surrounding systems. There is some indication that Atlas was reluctant to move due to concerns about lag as a risk to its Cap fleet. Assuming lag was a factor for both sides, the invading RUS/PL force put Atlas into a position where countering RUS attacks would have had Atlas fighting when lag was to its disadvantage.

RUS/PL took advantage of Atlas' concentration in C-J6MT and launched a major assault on Atlas' Detorid stronghold of 0-W778. Significant parts of the Atlas fleet appears to have left C-J6MT in an effort to lift the siege of 0-W778. Entering the system, the Atlas fleet was unable to lift the siege. Some elements of the fleet retreated from the system, however, a large number of ships were boxed in station.

Against All Authorities is reported to have sent some assistance to aid Atlas, however it was not sufficient to turn the tide. The RUS/PL success may have transpired too rapidly for AAA and Atlas to realize the danger until it was too late.  

From what I can gather, Atlas is presently pulling back to establish a defensible frontier, and attempting to stage a break out of the ships that remain camped in 0-W778.

With Atlas regrouping in Omis, RUS and PL appear to be mopping up in Insmother and Detorid. RUS/PL are presently locking down the entry/exit points to the South-East quadrant of Insmother, effectively boxing in the large cluster of Atlas systems there.

As of this writing PL is attacking 46DP in Teneferis, the last remaining entry-point to Insmother in that quadrant.

Despite claims by opponents of an Atlas collapse, Atlas numbers have remained remarkably stable despite this setback. There has been a very slight down-tick of numbers in the last few days, but nothing that would indicate an imminent Failscade.

Now all eyes turn to AAA and, the elephant in the room, IT Alliance. Rumors abound as to whether IT will aid AAA and Atlas, attack them, or simply stand pat.

In the meantime AAA and Atlas will be digesting the lessons recently served up. Despite their success, RUS needs to be wary. The change in Sovereignty rules is a door that swings both ways. RUS is very overextended at the moment. It has long supply lines and an awful lot of territory to digest. Atlas and AAA, with shorter interior lines of movement and supply, may be able to turn the tables on RUS and leverage superior mobility to their advantage.

And then there's the CareBear factor.

Recall in Rise of the CareBears (Part Deux) I said that AAA's careful cultivation of renters have left it sitting on a very big pile of cash. Recall also that PL was hired by RUS.  RUS will have spent a lot of resources on this little fracas and may not have the ready cash needed to outbid AAA for PL's services if push comes to shove. That would allow AAA to eliminate, and possibly recruit, a significant part of the RUS invasion force without firing a shot. An overextended RUS, facing Atlas and AAA along with PL would be in a very tight spot.

And then there are the bears themselves.  As a renter alliance, AAA Citizens doesn't get a great deal of respect from their PVPing neighbors. However, they have invested heavily in their space. They call it home. And they are a tougher breed of bear than those the griefers hunt for sport in empire. Many of the AAAC corporations have a significant PVP-capable element. Even if they can't punch in the weight class of a Pandemic Legion or IT Alliance, they represent a sizable body of experienced nullsec PVP pilots. Properly organized and deployed, their number will make themselves felt. The major alliances would be foolish to dismiss them.

When the Japanese assembled a modern army after the Meji Restoration, they recruited most of their soldiers from the peasant class. The samurai had a good laugh over that. Then the peasants killed them.

Funny things, paradigm shifts.
 

The Hail Mary

During the Great Eviction, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance) was not only pushed out of their Providence systems, they shed pilots at a furious rate. After the shooting died down, while CVA’s former holdings were divided up among AAA (Against All Authorities) vassals, CVA numbers stabilized at about 1,065; about a twenty-five percent loss in all.

Unsatisfied with one debacle, CVA persuaded their ally Paxton (Paxton Federation), who’d survived their alliance with CVA during Great Eviction with Paxton's holdings intact, to follow them into a second lost cause. This time the results were never in doubt. Despite some heroic stands by Paxton, the new Providence holders prevailed and Paxton was forced to retreat from their Providence systems.

While Paxton began to look for other opportunities CVA, ever the role-playing zealot, vowed to fight on and take back the Providence (Amarrian sacred ground, you know) no matter how what the cost. Roughly fifty more pilots left CVA, having decided that losing causes, while fun for a while, are a bit of a bummer in the long haul.

People don’t pay CCP every month for a bummer. They pay to have fun.

And this is a very important game mechanic. Like the Romans of old, capsuleers have only one leader: Victory. If your guys are getting their ass handed to them every other week, losing expensive ships and watching as the isk in their accounts dwindle and golden memories of their null-sec past dim, they are not having a good time.

And if you, as alliance leader, just keep yelling “On you cowardly dogs, once more unto the breach,” you quickly become part of a bad gaming experience.

Then your guys will go be somebody else’s guys. 

So, with 1,016 pilots remaining (based on fleet turnouts, I’d venture that only half that number are combat effective; and that may be optimistic), CVA is stuck on the horns of dilemma.

The smart strategy would be to temporize. Cut loose useless systems, use the sov funds to rebuild the fleets and rehab the remaining CVA pilots’ morale and numbers. Make some new allies. Wait for current Providence love-fest to end. After all, the presence of CVA is the glue that holds the new Providence holders together.

Alas, time is precisely what CVA doesn’t have.

Bad CVA decisions have been compounded by more bad CVA decisions. Now, for good or ill, they’ve boxed themselves into a corner. The longer they sit in place, the weaker they get; the best PVP pilots don’t want to sit in low sec playing pirates. After two full scale debacles, CVA’s got to get a win on the board if they’re going to hold onto any sort of a coherent fighting force. And by win, I mean they have to take and actively hold Providence systems.

In American football parlance, CVA is forth and long on the CVA twenty yard line, with only enough time on the clock for one more play.

Yesterday, CVA threw a Hail Mary pass and took X-R3NM from Chaos Theory Alliance. 

Smack-talk on Kugutsmen’s suggests this may have been made possible by internal divisions within Chaos Theory. There may be some truth to this as U’K (Ushra'Khan), rather than Chaos Theory seemed to be leading the system’s defense.  CVA, meanwhile, is claiming support from Core Factor and Paxton.

Paxton, however, having been burnt twice in following CVA’s lead seems disinclined to shed still more blood on CVA’s behalf for old times’ sake. Kill-boards from the dust-up in X-R3NM show very limited Paxton involvement. 

A notable exception was Tarkina Koslix who was a one-capsuleer wrecking crew in her stealth bomber. Unfortunately, one of her bomb runs caught fellow Paxtoneer and interceptor pilot, Giana Malakia, in the blast range. So she has the honor of being listed as a member of a U’K fleet on a kill mail.

The few Paxton pilots who made the battle were likely waiting for relocation orders from their leadership and tagged along for the lulz.  While Paxton is still blue to CVA, I’m guessing most Paxton pilots are happy to be making decisions that don’t involve CVA.

All things considered, unless CVA has some big guns behind it somewhere, it’s doubtful they’ve the strength to keep X-R2NM. Taking it is not enough for CVA. If they can’t hold X-R3NM CVA may be in a worse situation than if they hadn’t taken it at all.

Sadly, it’s not enough to throw the Hail Mary pass; someone has to catch it.

The Amoral World of Diplomacy

In the amoral world of Diplomacy, [Loyalty, honesty, frankness, gratitude, chivalry, magnanimity] are the hallmarks of the born loser. If a fallen enemy reaches out a hand for assistance, the wise man lops it off. If a friend does you a good turn when you’re down, wait until he’s down, then beat him to death. If an ally asks for your help in planning the next season’s moves, give it freely and copiously, then do the reverse of what you agreed and let him take the counter-attack. Try to surround yourself with people who trust you, then let them down; find an ally who will gladly die for you and see that he does just that.

     -"The game of Diplomacy" by Richard Sharp 1978

For those who haven’t been following the diplomatic maneuverings in Providence, a little backstory:

When Against All Authorities (AAA) evicted Curatores Veritatis Alliance (CVA) from Providence nullsec and reseeded the space with hand-picked vassal alliances, they did a curious thing. They left Paxton Federation, a close CVA ally who fought alongside CVA during the Great Eviction, in place.

That raised a few eyebrows. Especially in CVA.

I mean, say you’re CVA. You’re being ignominiously defeated by AAA and driven from your 0.0 holdings. You’re locked in hopeless battle for nullsec survival, fighting shoulder to shoulder with your trusty Paxton Federation buddies. All for one! One for all! We stand or fall together! Rawr!

Then the enemy turns to Paxton and says: Look dude, my fight’s with CVA. Paxton, I kinda like. Paxton’s never crossed me and they’ve all got honest faces. So, I’m not going to take over Paxton’s systems and pass them out to my friends. Once the fighting’s over no hard feeling. Bygones, and all that.

Well. It’s one of those moments that test the bonds of trust.

Paxton quickly said it had nothing to do with AAA’s decision and was as surprised as anyone else. Paxton said that no secret deal had been struck under the table. No knife was poised behind CVA’s collective back. Paxton continued the losing fight as CVA’s trusted ally and the whole matter was chalked up as an attempt by the Machiavellian AAA diplomatic corps to sow mistrust between two loyal friends.

But when the war ended, the dust settled and CVA was relegated to low sec space, AAA was as good as its word. Paxton territories were not given away to friends of AAA. AAA even returned the station system D-GTMI to Paxton without evident preconditions. Kirith Kodachi and his Paxton brethren wondered openly what those clever lads at AAA might be up to with this unforeseen maneuver.

Now if you look at Paxton space, it is a line of systems running like a strand of pearls through the center of Providence. And there are two CVA systems (FX-7EM & MVCJ-E) that touch Paxton Space. If CVA decides to let sovereignty on these systems lapse for financial reasons (see “Friends Like These”), who better than Paxton to take them over. Sort of ‘Here. I’ll just hold these for you until you’re feeling better.’

And if CVA pilots longing for nullsec decide to move into Paxton corporations, is Paxton going to turn them away?

So. As CVA languished in lowsec, shedding pilots and plotting a comeback, Paxton appeared to thrive, growing stronger. And while the CVA/Paxton friendship remained solid, you have to think Paxton was relishing its new role as senior partner in the relationship. Its borders were secure and it had a good chance of expanding them if CVA dropped sov on systems bordering Paxton space. Paxton’s fortunes were looking up.

Alas, trouble loves company.

The rule among the alliances now occupying former CVA space is that they don’t mess with each other’s sovereignty. An alliance may not attempt to expand its sovereignty beyond the systems allocated to it by AAA without AAA permission. Period.

Last Monday, Chaos Theory temporarily lost sov in AY-24I due to some internal glitch. Paxton decided to have some fun at Chaos' expense and went in to shoot up the off-lined sovereignty mods and POS. CVA went along for the lulz. And CVA dropped a Territorial Claim Unit in Chaos Theory’s system.

For Paxton, it had to be a face-palm moment.

Supporting CVA would lose them AAA protection of their space. Extracting themselves from the situation would mean an end to the fiction of Paxton/CVA shared interests and the loss of Paxton’s only ally.

They chose (or were forced) to back CVA's play. Now the wolf, in the form of anyone with an interest in Paxton’s demise, is at the door. Unless Paxton’s diplomatic corps can talk AAA into calling off the dogs, the scouring of Providence has begun again – this time on Paxton’s nickel.

CVA had to know their action would be devastating for Paxton. So why do it?

I suspect that CVA took the opportunity to test Paxton’s intentions. In effect, it forced Paxton to either share CVA’s fate in exile, or renounce CVA openly. CVA leaders are known ideological purists – “with us or against us” types. In their minds Paxton’s need to observe AAA’s sovereignty rules in order to keep Paxton systems was in conflict with Paxton’s duty to help CVA recover their lost systems.

By breaking AAA sovereignty rules on Paxton’s behalf, CVA has broken any tacit agreements between AAA and Paxton. CVA has made sure Paxton will not profit from CVA’s losses, and that Paxton pilots are fully committed to the CVA cause.

CVA appears to have found an ally who will gladly die for them, and are in the process of making sure Paxton does just that.

Friends Like These

The kid is having fun in nullsec.

The kid's a young HellForge pilot who’s made the trip to Providence with me and is having his first experience in 0.0 space since joining the game. He’s having the time of his life. Most corporations in the Lucky Starbase Syndicate are friendly and professional. The kid’s been out ratting and hitting plexes with his new buddies. He’s been having so much pew-pew fun, he burned through half the ammo he brought with him from empire space in the course of an afternoon.

He was downright gleeful when he convoed me yesterday to request I bring BPOs for his preferred ammo type. “I’m never going back to high-sec,” he said.

Good stuff to see. It’s why we’re in new Eden.

The level of cooperation among the alliance corporations is very good. We’re all of us in the same boat – everybody’s made an investment of one sort or another in the move to Providence. Whether it’s a small operators like HellForge or big 100+ pilot corporations with deep pockets, we’ve all put ourselves out on the line. The Lucky corporations seem to recognize we’re invested in each other’s success. After all, this is nullsec and there’s a lot of black hats out there.

Black hats like Curatores Veritatis Alliance (CVA).

They’ve been haunting the borders of Providence nullsec ever since being evicted by Against All Authorities (AAA). CVA's been making sorties into R3-K7K, a nullsec entry point system held by Systematic-Chaos, but I’ve yet to hear of any major fleet actions. I expect CVA is recovering from the capital fleet losses they took while losing Providence. I expect the light incursions into R3 are harassing actions to keep Systematic-Chaos off balance. Meanwhile, if CVA plans on getting back into the nullsec game, they’ll be building up for a capital fleet strike.

But they have to make their play soon. Time is not on their side.

First of all, time is money.

CVA still holds twelve systems in nullsec. Those are, however, scattered systems. They are islands deep in enemy territory, occupied by Against All Authorities' vassals. As such, they return no income to CVA. Meanwhile, CVA must pay all the sovereignty costs for those twelve systems. That rips big gobbets of money from CVA’s reserves every month – money that can’t be used to build capital ships to use in taking back lost systems. By leaving these systems in CVA hands, AAA has tied a very large financial millstone around CVA’s collective neck.

You’d think letting the systems go would be a no-brainer for CVA. Cut them loose and invest the money in the ships needed to engineer a come-back. But, as has been pointed out, CVA is a role-playing alliance. Providence systems are holy ground. And that’s got to be hard for CVA’s leadership to let go of.

Secondly, time in exile is bad for morale

The longer CVA plays the role of low-sec refugee from null-space, the more corps and pilots they’re going to shed. CVA corporations are holding the line at twenty-five. However, the cracks begin to show when you look at the pilot count.

CVA has shed roughly 350 – 400 pilots since January, easily a quarter of their pre-eviction force.

Now they’ve still got a healthy membership with 1,067 pilots on the roster, however, they continue to bleed pilots, albeit slowly. CVA’s got to staunch that trickle of departing pilots before it turns into a steady stream.

Like the kid, CVA's pilots were having fun in nullsec. Like the kid, they don’t want to leave nullsec. And if CVA doesn’t show them a little nullsec love soon, they’re going to find someone else who can. 'Cause CVA isn’t the only Amarr roleplayer alliance in Providence.

Has anybody else noticed that Paxton’s pilot numbers are ticking up at about the same rate CVA’s are ticking down these last few weeks?

Hmmm. More on that next time.

Buying in a down market

Things are getting interesting in the Providence region.

Up to now it's been standard stuff. Push, shove, ships go ka-boom. Yadda, yadda. (Interstellar Correspondents gives a nice write up of the Providence dust up through mid-February (Parts one, two, three and four) if you're behind on the news)

But something has changed. And, unless I miss my guess, we're in for a special, evolutionary Eve moment.

Seems Against All Authorities (AAA)is recruiting a bunch of smallish player alliances to take over systems currently held by AAA's neighbor, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance). AAA provides muscle to push CVA from the system. AAA's client alliance takes sovereignty.

It's an interesting idea:

In essence, AAA is creating a patchwork of null-space kingdoms. None are large enough to threaten AAA, and all are beholden to AAA. If you know your European history, it's sort of like the dozens of little kingdoms and principalities that made up the Holy Roman Empire just prior to German unification - With AAA cast in the role of the Hapsburgs.

Genius, at least in the short term.

Mind, history is full of vassals who got a bad case of ambition and ended up putting a shiv into their liege lord's back. But hey, that's tomorrow. For now, it's all hugs and cuddle-fluff in Providence.

Unless you're CVA.

CVA is rapidly being eaten up in small bites. There are reports of CVA pilots trying to get property out of fallen systems with mixed success. That suggests CVA isn't expecting to take back those systems any time soon. Speculation is CVA will be gone from Providence entirely before too much longer.

Where CVA's component corporations will go after that remains to be seen. If your home's in low sec space near Providence, you'll likely see them rummaging through your garbage cans like an unwelcome family of raccoons while they regroup in your back yard.

But, as they say, it's an ill wind that blows no-one good. CVA's loss may be your gain. The smart alliances will try to pick off one or two of CVA's better endowed corporations before things go completely turtle. And CVA players heavily invested in resources stuck in Providence may be willing to sell them off at fire sale prices in order to re-coup some of their losses.

If you've got the money, buying in a down market is sweet. And markets don't get downer than CVA's at the moment.