Monday, April 12, 2010

Buying in a down market

Things are getting interesting in the Providence region.

Up to now it's been standard stuff. Push, shove, ships go ka-boom. Yadda, yadda. (Interstellar Correspondents gives a nice write up of the Providence dust up through mid-February (Parts one, two, three and four) if you're behind on the news)

But something has changed. And, unless I miss my guess, we're in for a special, evolutionary Eve moment.

Seems Against All Authorities (AAA)is recruiting a bunch of smallish player alliances to take over systems currently held by AAA's neighbor, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance). AAA provides muscle to push CVA from the system. AAA's client alliance takes sovereignty.

It's an interesting idea:

In essence, AAA is creating a patchwork of null-space kingdoms. None are large enough to threaten AAA, and all are beholden to AAA. If you know your European history, it's sort of like the dozens of little kingdoms and principalities that made up the Holy Roman Empire just prior to German unification - With AAA cast in the role of the Hapsburgs.

Genius, at least in the short term.

Mind, history is full of vassals who got a bad case of ambition and ended up putting a shiv into their liege lord's back. But hey, that's tomorrow. For now, it's all hugs and cuddle-fluff in Providence.

Unless you're CVA.

CVA is rapidly being eaten up in small bites. There are reports of CVA pilots trying to get property out of fallen systems with mixed success. That suggests CVA isn't expecting to take back those systems any time soon. Speculation is CVA will be gone from Providence entirely before too much longer.

Where CVA's component corporations will go after that remains to be seen. If your home's in low sec space near Providence, you'll likely see them rummaging through your garbage cans like an unwelcome family of raccoons while they regroup in your back yard.

But, as they say, it's an ill wind that blows no-one good. CVA's loss may be your gain. The smart alliances will try to pick off one or two of CVA's better endowed corporations before things go completely turtle. And CVA players heavily invested in resources stuck in Providence may be willing to sell them off at fire sale prices in order to re-coup some of their losses.

If you've got the money, buying in a down market is sweet. And markets don't get downer than CVA's at the moment.


  1. Since CVA is a roleplay alliance, their chances of weathering this downturn with many corps intact is decent.

    Also note that these vassal alliances going into provi at AAA's invitation will be reset by AAA once CVA is turfed. Turning Provi into a complete war zone for all intents and purposes.

  2. As the old saying goes, success has a thousand fathers. Failure is an orphan.

    Role-players or not, nobody gives cuddle-fluffs to leaders who lead their troops into disaster. Routs like this are bad for morale and corps with prospects elsewhere will likely exercise those prospects if CVA can't come back from this debacle in short order.

    CVA will likely hold onto corps that are either without options, or so heavily invested in the current CVA leadership that they've nowhere else to go. In economics, this is referred to as a "lemons market".


    I never said that AAA's new vassal states would play nice with each other. That's no never mind to AAA.

    As you wrote on, Providence "...will be a chaotic combination of hostile entities locked in constant warfare gang and fleet warfare but with few opportunities for taking each other's space (especially if AAA steps in when something does threaten)".

    In other words, AAA giveth, and AAA can taketh away. Anybody starts acting out of turn, or looks like they're getting a case of ambition, AAA will get rid of them and install someone more cooperative.