Farms and Fields: Metagame

It is also important that when a prince has conquered a foreign state that he become the protector of the surrounding weaker powers, and do all he can to weaken the stronger ones....The new prince has no trouble winning the weaker factions over, because they will willingly become part of his new state.  He has only to see to it that they do not gain too much power and authority.  With his forces and their favor, he can easily bring down those who are powerful so that he will remain the only arbiter in the land.
          Machiavelli - The Prince

I've been a way for a while, and my apologies for that. Just one of those times when life and work pick the same time to go into overdrive mode and there's not world enough nor time for the blowing up of cartoon space ships.  Even my training queue had gone idle which means leisure time has been on starvation rations in the house of Mord.

As I turn my attention back to New Eden I see that things are pretty much where I left them. And if that revelation doesn't crease your brow with worry, it ought to. Normally this is the time of year when events of seismic proportion take place. Mighty fleets should be assembling, the engines of war unlimbered and the dogs of war unleashed. Epic deeds should be our daily fare and New Eden should resound to the cacophony of war and the crash of empires being torn from their high places and dashed 'pon the cruel, unyielding rocks below.    

Alas, no. I return to the silence of a tomb and little more by way of overt activity.  

However, as with the famed curious incident of the dog in the night-time, the absence of activity where activity is the norm is often a harbinger of troubles on approach but, as yet, unknown. So take this uncharacteristic quiet as a sign that something predatory may be moving through the tall grass, just outside our field of vision. With that in mind, let's have a look at the current landscape and see where the veldt is rustling.

Nothing of moment passes in nullsec beyond the incessant flow of easy ISK into the bank accounts of the haves. Faction Warfare is all same-old same-old, except for the occasional entry of Blue Doughnut (BD) alliances into that arena. CSM election bloviation seems to be the only subject in motion, wafting its turgid, greasy way from one blog to the next and then on to podcast-land.

Now, if you follow the CSM candidates, you'll note a particular sameness to the platforms held by the Blue Doughnut slate and their proxies in lowsec. In essence it's a combination of the Farms and Fields (F&F) platforms so heavily lobbied for during the December CSM summit, and the newer Reward/Risk (R/R) initiative. I've already pulled the legs off Farms & Fields elsewhere and won't repeat that delightful pastime here. The TLDR is that F&F as proposed can't meet its promised goals as long as highsec is a viable option for ISK earning.

Which explains the BD's sudden passion for R/R.

R/R calls for the ISK faucets in highsec to be dialed back to a trickle.  Reward, the reasoning goes, should be closely correlated with risk. Now, I personally hold that the Reward to Risk protocol is already in place: The riches of nullsec are vast. There's nothing like rolling out of bed and hitting an NPC anomaly without an hundred other capsuleers having emptied it out ahead of you, and running said anomaly with yourself and/or your mates the only traffic in local. The rare hostiles who show up are easily identified and, as long as you go about your day to day with an eye on the local/intel channels, the odds of losing a ratting or industrial ship are exceedingly long.  Then there are the rare minerals and moon goos such as Technetium that can't be gotten anywhere but nullsec.

Ignore the cries of poverty emanating from nullsec; even the rank and file there have access to easy ISK, though a healthy percentage of it is sucked upwards into alliance and coalition coffers by way of leadership-imposed rents and fees.   

Now, if I had to rank space by order of riskiness, I'd say NPC nullsec is the most dangerous, followed by lowsec, followed by shallow sovereign nullsec, followed by deep sovereign nullsec. As I've said elsewhere, null security doesn't mean no security. Rather, it means you only have the security the sov-holding organization can enforce. And right now, what with their holding the lion's share of supercapitals, the risk for BD players in deep BD space is negligible.  Personally, I think it would be 'fair' if NPC nullsec and some parts of lowsec produced higher rewards than deep nullsec. 

But, of course, neither of these initiatives have anything to do with 'fairness', do they? No, quite the opposite.

There are some null and lowsec players who support F&F and R/R simply because they can't sleep at night knowing that someone in highsec is having fun.  However, the primary goal among R/R's BD promoters is to make highsec a nonviable option for the serious industrial player.  In a single stroke they would remove highsec as an option to working for the new nullsec order, and increase the value of sovereign nullsec held by those pushing the F&F and R/R policies.

And it should not be forgotten that sovereign nullsec is not open to all. It is a by-invitation-only proposition. Supercapitals allow a relative minority of New Eden's population to control nullsec and thereby control access to both the largest ISK faucets in the game and the sole means of supercapital production. At present, only those with vast fleets of supercapitals can take and hold nullsec, and only those who hold nullsec have the means to produce or afford vast fleets of supercapitals.

Those who hold sway in sovereign nullsec are now and will remain the arbiters of who can immigrate to nullsec and under what conditions.  Further, if nullsec, with its securable space and monopoly on high-value production inputs, is allowed to become the default location for building high-value sub-capital ships as well as capital ships, the owners of sov nullsec will gain a non-trivial degree of control over the price of those ships and who can own them in large numbers.  And, of course, less money from financial activity and nerfed ISK faucets in highsec will increase the value of sovereign nullsec's existing neigh-torrential ISK faucet output. Under such circumstances, whoever owns nullsec could dictate political and economic events in the larger game of EVE to an extensive degree.   All and all an impressive bit of metagame, if it can be executed successfully. 
 
Which brings us to the second place the grass is rustling: Who is going to wield this one ring of nullsec power? 

As most are aware, nullsec is presently dominated by two coalitions: The Clusterfuck Coalition (CFC), led by Goonswarm Federation, and the Honey-Badger Coalition (HBC), led by Test Alliance Please Ignore (albeit with Pandemic Legion's influence writ large). Since gaining control of most of sovereign nullsec, the two coalitions have maintained a policy of 'controlled' PVP, in which each side's members are free to raid the others territory, but attacking sov structures is forbidden.  Despite a coordinated 'we hate shooting structures' media campaign to justify their no-Invasion pact (NIP), there are elements among member alliances who chafe at the enforced peace. Such voices are quickly shut down by those in control of CFC and HBC. However, there remains an undercurrent of uneasiness to the peace. And for good reason.

CFC's leadership cannot tolerate the presence of a second nullsec entity strong enough to pose a credible threat to the CFC.  When playing this sort of metagame, the only friends to have are those who can't do you significant harm, but are dependent upon your good will for their safety and their income.  And HBC, while at least a nominal friend, remains the only potential external threat to CFC hegemony in nullsec; a condition the CFC leadership will only tolerate for as long as it takes to set the HBC up for the coming fall.  

If fighting has not broken out yet, it is because HBC hasn't been sufficiently compromised to provide the CFC with a low-risk win.  When push comes to shove (and it will) Pandemic Legion will abandon Test. There is a high probability that other alliances within the HBC are compromised or being worked with that end in mind.   Further, assuming it isn't underway already, expect the CFC to reach out to Test's enemies in the South.  They are still smarting from the recent loss of their territories at the hands of Test, supported by Pandemic Legion.  It will not be hard for the CFC to convince the recently dispossessed in the South to attack HBC on that front when CFC and HBC come to blows in the North. Meanwhile, CFC territories in the North, particularly Deklein, are unlikely to offer a similar opportunity for the opening of a second front.

Test's leadership is very aware of all this, but appear to lack the means to counter the looming threat. CFC's leadership are the more accomplished metagamers, with a marked preference for ensuring their enemies are defeated, before the first shot is fired. Pandemic Legion's action to block Montolio's planned invasion of CFC territory while having Montolio smeared by CFC controlled media outlets and temporarily benched from HBC's leadership team was the first overt sign of how compromised the HBC's situation had become. Now, with their military dependent upon an untrustworthy Pandemic Legion, and their ranks shot through with likely CFC partisans, a war with the CFC has become a high risk proposition.

Meanwhile, HBC's leadership have no viable means to remove Pandemic Legion or other probable fifth columnists from their ranks. They do not have a dedicated media arm to counter the CFC's war for hearts and minds in the coming fight. They can only wait and depend on the CFC's promises of fellowship while, with each tick of the clock, their position grows weaker.

HBC has become like unto a rabbit frozen in the gaze of a snake; as its coils slowly move to envelope them, they dare not move and have little recourse but to hope for the snake's goodwill.

Resurgence

The fall of 68FT-6 in Impass to Against All Authorities (-A-) and the Southern Russian Coalition last week appears to have broken the back of organized resistance in the region by Circle of Two (CO2) and The Initiative (INIT). CO2 subsequently ordered a stand-down in Impass and its pilots appear to have pulled back to CO2 holdings in Providence. Meanwhile, -A- operations in Impass appear to be meeting little resistance on the part of The Initiative, indicating that INIT is writing the region off for the moment; using the time it will take -A- to consolidate their gains in Impass to rest and re-organize INIT forces along a new front.

The most likely concentration of INIT forces will be near the entry-points to Catch. Long the seat of -A- power, and currently the region boasting the highest concentration of INIT forces, Catch is a natural flash-point for both sides. INIT forces striking -A- forces in Impass will come from there. -A- forces looking to take back their old seat of power will strike at those entry points.

While tempted by the emotional importance of Catch, -A- is not likely to overlook Teneferis. As it was for -A- before it, sleepy Teneferis is a source of great wealth for the alliance that holds it. The Initiative has followed -A-'s example of seeding the region with renters who provide INIT with a tidy source of revenue and, no doubt, capital ships.

-A- would do well to begin a secondary offensive in Teneferis either before, or in tandem with an attempted invasion of Catch. If INIT chooses to defend the region, that will draw forces away from the Catch front. If INIT declines to defend (and to some extent, even if it doesn't), many Teneferis renters will shut down operations and the region will quickly dry up as a source of revenue and supply.

Further, the impact on morale of many systems (even renter systems) falling quickly to the invaders should not be overlooked. This is precisely the tactic INIT employed to good effect during its invasion of -A- space earlier this Fall. If The Initiative hadn't been so confident of an -A- failscade soon thereafter, INIT might have taken the lesson and developed their own renters into a meaningful regional defense force. However, if INIT relations with their PvP vassal alliances is any indication, the The Initiative hasn't taken any such trouble and is, like -A- before them, content to use their renters as little more than an ATM. 

Should the Southern Russians successfully invade Teneferis, they should be open to Initiative Associate renters wishing to cut a deal with the inbound -A- forces. Recall that a number of Initiative Associate corporations were, in fact, AAA Citizen corporations before INIT took over the space. As I've written elsewhere, for many of these corporations renting space is a transaction, not a matter of loyalty. Allowing an apolitical renter to occupy the same space merely by switching alliances is simply good business. It saves the renter the need to move or lose valuable infrastructure. It brings the revenue-generating potential of the renter's systems back online as soon as hostilities move past those systems. It saves the invader the headache of recruiting new renters and jump-starts the income flow from the conquered space. Some selective outreach here works to the invaders tactical advantage as well. A renter with no reason to fear the new landlord is less inclined to assist the old landlord in defense of rented space.

How matters resolve themselves between INIT and the Southern Russians going forward will depend on timing and the numbers both sides can bring to the fight. The Initiative and -A-, on their own, are pretty much at numeric parity. Their return as the new lords of Impass should bolster -A- membership and, possibly, bring some seasoned veterans back to the fold. However, Initiative Mercenaries, based out of Catch, is a sizable block of pilots, tipping the balance in favor of The Initiative. Barring a convenient collapse in INIT's morale, -A- is going to need their Southern Russian brethren in the fight if they hope to retake Catch.

While taking Catch will have enormous emotional importance to -A-, it may be less of a priority to Stain Empire and Red Overlords who, having pushed The Initiative and its minions off their doorstep, may be content to consolidate their gains rather than launch another offensive.  Red Overlords in particular may be reluctant, as White Noise is still a presence in Feythabolis, and must be dealt with before that region is secure and Overlords are placed to assist -A- in Catch.  

Then there are the usual wild cards to consider; Pandemic Legion and IT Alliance.

Pandemic Legion seems well occupied in the North where the Drone Russian Coalition (RUS) have hired them to perform enfilading attacks to take Northern Coalition pressure off RUS forces in Etherium Reach. Barring RUS canceling that contract, or The Initiative making PL an offer RUS is unwilling or unable to match, a significant PL presence in the South is unlikely.

Aside from sending a 200 ship fleet to the defense of 68FT-6, IT Alliance has had only marginal involvement in the fighting between The Initiative and the Southern Russians. However it's important to recall that IT Alliance, rushing to the aid of the victors, opened up a second front on the last pockets of -A- resistance when INIT invaded Catch and then turned the conquered -A- systems over to The Initiative. Having taken an IT Alliance shiv in the back, -A- is unlikely to be kindly disposed toward their former allies.

The prospect of a potentially hostile -A- parked on the borders of Querious and Delve may move IT Alliance to take a substantive role in the defense of The Initiative's holdings in Catch. However, throwing the full weight of IT Alliance behind INIT at a time when an impending Goon invasion is building against IT elsewhere is a high-stakes enterprise. If The Initiative falls the resulting appearance of weakness would do much to encourage the growing notion that IT Alliance is a paper tiger - the Hapsburg Empire of New Eden.

As leader of the largest PvP alliance in New Eden, SirMolles's actions since IT's failed invasion of the North early this year seem risk-averse. He has focused on small, low-risk offensive actions that occupy IT Alliance pilots, but the success or failure of which are of little consequence to the alliance at large. With more to lose that to win in most engagements, SirMolle's actions of late seem hesitant - chosen with an eye to protecting the BOB/IT Alliance brand and legacy rather than taking the storied alliance someplace new.

An invasion of Catch by the Southern Russian Coalition will test that hesitancy and put IT Alliance's leadership in the position where passive, low-risk choices are no longer an option.

AZN-D2

I do hate to drop one post on top of another, but some events call for an extra edition.

Remember when I said that taking down Against All Authorities (-A-) was like killing a vampire? That you had to make sure that sucker was buried in the crossroads decapitated, garlic in its mouth and a stake in its heart before you turned your back on it? Remember that?

Why does nobody listen?

The fight took place in AZN-D2 today.  Circle of Two (CO2) and Dead Terrorists (DT) against -A-, Stain Empire and friends. PL was nowhere in sight, having finished their contract with CO2 and moved on.

At 19:56 the first carrier went down - A CO2 Chimera. Thirteen minutes later a CO2 Hel supercarrier joined the Chimera. For the next two agonizing hours, CO2 and Dead Terrorists watched as they lost a total of  seventeen carriers (DT-13, CO2-4), four supercarriers (DT-2, CO2-2) and two Erebus-class Titans (DT-1, CO2-1).

Ladies and gentlemen, assuming the killboard numbers hold, that is one family sized can of whup-ass that got opened on DT and CO2.

In the course of those two hours the chatter on the forums changed from a party celebrating the end of -A-, to speculation as to how long the newcomers to nullsec space would be able to hold onto their newly acquired systems once the old occupant came calling.

Paradigm Shift

One of the reasons for the exceedingly high casualties in the American Civil War was that long-held tactics, that were based on the short range poor and accuracy of smooth-bore muskets, came up against the common use of the .58 caliber rifled musket by troops of the day.

It took a long time for both sides to figure out that many tactics that had been chapter and verse, drilled into generations of officers since the the American Revolution, were now recipes for military disaster.

Throughout the history of war, the side that first recognized and adapted to changes in the military paradigm met with success. Those who did not recognize or adapt to change, and insisted on fighting the old fight rather than adapting to the new fight, generally ended up holding a big bag of failure at the end of hostilities.

Atlas Alliance may be reprising that old song.

Recently, Atlas space in Insmother was under attack by Legion of xXDEATHXx, Red Alliance, White Noise (aka the Russian Coalition, or RUS). Pandemic Legion, had been hired by RUS to support the invasion.

Atlas was successful in holding or repulsing the initial attacks, holding down a key system in C-J6MT and making effective use of cap ships against the massed forces of RUS/PL. After a number of failures to loosen the Atlas grip on the system, a new tactic was devised that leveraged the Dominion sovereignty rules. Rather than continuing to batter against C-J6MT with their entire force, PL engaged the main Atlas fleet, pinning it in place while the RUS fleets began to attack the systems around C-J6MT. 

In the old days, Atlas could have deployed a small force with lots of POS to delay the enemy in peripheral systems while defending the main system. Grinding down the defending POS would have been time consuming and ship intensive for the invaders, giving Atlas elbow room to respond. With Dominion era rules, however, an alliance must actively defend systems, or quickly lose them. To do so, an alliance have have the numbers, mobility and command structure necessary to effectively meet the enemy in multiple locations at once.

Atlas didn't adapt immediately to the change in tactics, and was unable to respond to PL/RUS attacks on the surrounding systems. There is some indication that Atlas was reluctant to move due to concerns about lag as a risk to its Cap fleet. Assuming lag was a factor for both sides, the invading RUS/PL force put Atlas into a position where countering RUS attacks would have had Atlas fighting when lag was to its disadvantage.

RUS/PL took advantage of Atlas' concentration in C-J6MT and launched a major assault on Atlas' Detorid stronghold of 0-W778. Significant parts of the Atlas fleet appears to have left C-J6MT in an effort to lift the siege of 0-W778. Entering the system, the Atlas fleet was unable to lift the siege. Some elements of the fleet retreated from the system, however, a large number of ships were boxed in station.

Against All Authorities is reported to have sent some assistance to aid Atlas, however it was not sufficient to turn the tide. The RUS/PL success may have transpired too rapidly for AAA and Atlas to realize the danger until it was too late.  

From what I can gather, Atlas is presently pulling back to establish a defensible frontier, and attempting to stage a break out of the ships that remain camped in 0-W778.

With Atlas regrouping in Omis, RUS and PL appear to be mopping up in Insmother and Detorid. RUS/PL are presently locking down the entry/exit points to the South-East quadrant of Insmother, effectively boxing in the large cluster of Atlas systems there.

As of this writing PL is attacking 46DP in Teneferis, the last remaining entry-point to Insmother in that quadrant.

Despite claims by opponents of an Atlas collapse, Atlas numbers have remained remarkably stable despite this setback. There has been a very slight down-tick of numbers in the last few days, but nothing that would indicate an imminent Failscade.

Now all eyes turn to AAA and, the elephant in the room, IT Alliance. Rumors abound as to whether IT will aid AAA and Atlas, attack them, or simply stand pat.

In the meantime AAA and Atlas will be digesting the lessons recently served up. Despite their success, RUS needs to be wary. The change in Sovereignty rules is a door that swings both ways. RUS is very overextended at the moment. It has long supply lines and an awful lot of territory to digest. Atlas and AAA, with shorter interior lines of movement and supply, may be able to turn the tables on RUS and leverage superior mobility to their advantage.

And then there's the CareBear factor.

Recall in Rise of the CareBears (Part Deux) I said that AAA's careful cultivation of renters have left it sitting on a very big pile of cash. Recall also that PL was hired by RUS.  RUS will have spent a lot of resources on this little fracas and may not have the ready cash needed to outbid AAA for PL's services if push comes to shove. That would allow AAA to eliminate, and possibly recruit, a significant part of the RUS invasion force without firing a shot. An overextended RUS, facing Atlas and AAA along with PL would be in a very tight spot.

And then there are the bears themselves.  As a renter alliance, AAA Citizens doesn't get a great deal of respect from their PVPing neighbors. However, they have invested heavily in their space. They call it home. And they are a tougher breed of bear than those the griefers hunt for sport in empire. Many of the AAAC corporations have a significant PVP-capable element. Even if they can't punch in the weight class of a Pandemic Legion or IT Alliance, they represent a sizable body of experienced nullsec PVP pilots. Properly organized and deployed, their number will make themselves felt. The major alliances would be foolish to dismiss them.

When the Japanese assembled a modern army after the Meji Restoration, they recruited most of their soldiers from the peasant class. The samurai had a good laugh over that. Then the peasants killed them.

Funny things, paradigm shifts.
 

The Man Who Wasn't There

Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn’t there
He wasn’t there again today
I wish, I wish he’d go away...
     - Hughes Mearns

CVA has a talent for getting its friends to piss in their own Corn Flakes. 


A few weeks ago rumors began circulating in various forums of a vast capital and super-capital fleet was assembling in Misaba, poised to take Providence from the New Providence Holders installed there by Against All Authorities (AAA) after the Great Eviction.  Sometimes the fleet was Northern Coalition. Sometimes it was Pandemic Legion. A second rumor, that Atlas Alliance was joining the Northern Coalition and would open a second front against the NPH from its systems in northern Providence, began to circulate soon after.

CVA partisans were gleeful, assuming AAA's vassal alliances would soon be driven from the region. They weighed in with the odd "Ammar Victor" and waited expectantly to  for deliverance from AAA. 


Now, sensible folk would take such rumors with a grain of salt. The absence of any uptick in Misaba of NC or PL traffic or other activity might be taken by some as a sign that the rumors of a five hundred ship capital fleet in that system were, in fact, rumors. 

Sensible, it appears, is not in Opticon Alliance's vocabulary.  

Opticon Alliance was one of the New Providence Holder alliances. Several of its larger corporations were formerly of Aegis Militia, which had held space in Providence from CVA prior to the Great Eviction. Rather than follow CVA into exile, Aegis' corporations merged with Enforcers of Serenity (EOS) to form Opticon Alliance, and were granted a constellation in Providence by AAA under the New Providence Holder terms and conditions. 

It appears that, with rumors of the phantom fleet and Atlas' defection swirling in the forums, CVA leadership managed to convince some of their old Aegis friends in Opticon's leadership that the New Providence Holders were about to be swept from Providence and that the smart money was on switching sides while there was still time. Casting aside common sense, Opticon bet the house on CVA. Opticon renounced all agreements with AAA and the New Providence Holders and declared themselves CVA allies. 

And immediately shed half their membership. 

It seems some of the Opticon corporations are well aware of CVA's track record where its friends are concerned, and were not swayed by unsubstantiated rumors of super-cap armadas. Within a week of the internal announcement, twelve of Opticon's twenty-five corporations left the alliance, taking 405 of the Opticon's roughly 750 pilots along with them. Several of the larger departing corporations, such as Leather Knights, were former Aegis corporations, indicating a sharp split among former CVA allies as to how far CVA could be trusted. 

Needless to say, the vast invasion fleet never materialized, evaporating into the mists of political fiction. When an NC capital and super-capital fleet did appear, it was in Venal rather than Providence. That fleet, lagged and caught in an apparent log-off bug, was badly mauled by it's opponents. Meanwhile Atlas Alliance has made no move to join the Northern Coalition.

Opticon, having cast aside the sovereignty protection of its AAA agreements is under attack. As of this writing it has lost one of its systems and, with its membership fractured, doesn't appear to be well positioned to defend the rest. As with Paxton, CVA has been able to convince a friend to sacrifice itself on the altar of CVA's ambition. 

Why would CVA do such a thing to friends? 

For one thing, I suspect CVA's leadership would rather see its friends destroyed than to see them prosper in a Providence controlled by CVA's enemies. Further, in order to stave off its growing irrelevance, CVA seems determined to exercise any control it retains in Providence affairs. If that control is limited to persuading friends to self-destruct, so be it. However, CVA is running out of friends to throw on its own funeral pyre. 


As I've pointed out elsewhere, CVA's combat effectiveness is limited, even by the standards of much smaller alliances. On paper it boasts nine hundred members, however pilot activity and fleet sizes indicate a large portion of those members are alt or inactive pilots, left unculled in order to keep up appearances. CVA members themselves admit that retaking Providence is a distant dream. And that dream slips further away as CVA continues its slow, relentless failscade.


Even CVA's sole hope of regaining Providence; that a major nullsec player, in order to spite AAA, will retake Providence and re-install CVA to its former place, has all but evaporated.


Let's say the stars totally align for CVA's ambition. Let's say AAA becomes completely occupied with matters elsewhere, implodes or is otherwise unable or disinclined to intervene in Providence. Let's also say cooperation among the New Providence Holders in the face of a mutual threat breaks down and those alliances are at each others' throats. Finally, a major player in EVE nullsec decides to twist AAA's tail, comes down upon Providence like the wrath of god, and sweeps the New Providence Holders away.

Ammar victor? Not bloody likely.

The assumption that an alliance like Pandemic Legion is going to hand Providence over to CVA, who's leadership has already pissed away one nullsec empire, betrayed CVA friends, and generally shown themselves to be incompetent, both militarily and administratively is, to be polite, idiotic.

Even if this weren't the case, CVA is not the alliance they once were. One could argue that they haven't been that alliance for some time - even before the Great Eviction. Empires tend to rot from the inside out. They survive on reputation long after their ability to back up that reputation has been spent. Finally events conspire to expose the internal weakness; the empty vessel CVA has become. Given Providence on a platter, CVA could not hold it. 


Incapable of anything but minor mischief, more a threat to its friends than to its enemies, CVA has become the proverbial "man who wasn't there"; doomed to in-substance, but unable to leave and rebuild its fortunes elsewhere.

Of Two Alliances and Billy Joel

You’ll recall the closing lines from my post The Amoral World of Diplomacy:

By breaking AAA sovereignty rules on Paxton’s behalf, CVA [Curatores Veritatis Alliance] has broken any tacit agreements between AAA [Against All Authoriries] and Paxton [Paxton Federation]. CVA has made sure Paxton will not profit from CVA’s losses, and that Paxton pilots are fully committed to the CVA cause.

CVA appears to have found an ally who will gladly die for them, and are in the process of making sure Paxton does just that.

More prophetic words than even I realized at the time.

Evicted from Providence, Paxton Federation’s member corporations were unable to agree on a direction forward. After an extended debate on the question, and faced with member discontent at the lack of movement, Paxton Alliance went into failscade at the end of May. As of two days ago only Paxton Industries, last as it was first, remained in the alliance alongside the three-member executor corp.

This caught most Providence watchers by surprise. Paxton had the reputation of a well-run alliance that managed the difficult feat of doing both industry and pvp exceptionally well. Despite their eviction from Providence, they’d had much advance notice of events. They’d fought well against overwhelming odds and, when the time came, retreated in good order with their heads held high and their morale intact.

Alas for the best laid plans of mice and men.

A lot of Paxton pilots appear to blame CVA for bringing the Providence house down, and burying Paxton in the rubble. The degree to which that’s true can be seen in absence of Paxton orphans making the jump to CVA in any numbers.

Where Paxton’s fall was like a lightning bolt, CVA seems content to flicker out slowly, like a guttering candle. CVA’s slow but relentless decline continued with the departure of Davy Jones Locker and its 72 pilots. That leaves CVA with a pilot count hovering just above 900, down from between 1,400 and 1,500 at the beginning of the Great Eviction.

900 (914 as of today, to be precise) still seems like an awful lot of pilots. However, the kill-board numbers, along with the size and composition of the fleets CVA is able to field, suggest the active pilot count is much smaller and of poorer quality than their total player count would suggest. 

Some of that attrition may be due to financial constraints. A communication from a purported CVA member stated:

“…if we feel we can do enough damage to warrant the cost of SBUs, you can bet we're going to drop them.”

As per my reply to him, a 900+ member alliance that frets over the cost of SBUs is an alliance in deep trouble financially. That CVA does so while paying upwards of 1.8 billion isk per month for sov costs on nine systems that return little strategic or financial value brings the quality of their leadership into question.

While CVA continues to hold sovereignty of station system X-R3NM, this appears to be a function of defensive indifference on the part of the New Providence Holders, who seem to perceive CVA pilots as a convenient source of pvp targets rather than a threat.

In other words, CVA’s relevance in Providence has slipped to the level of a null-sec resource to be harvested. Scary stuff that, if you’re a CVA pilot.

So we arrive at the end of an amazing story arc. The much admired Paxton Federation goes out with a bang. Meanwhile, scorned CVA persists; whimpering its way toward irrelevance.

It seems Billy Joel was right: Only the good die young.

Surprise!

Since the Great Eviction, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance) has been basing their operations out of Misaba, the low-sec system adjacent to R3-K7K. CVA gate camps in R3, particularly on the Misaba gate, have become a daily fact of life for the AAA (Against All Authorities) vassal alliances occupying Providence space (aka the New Providence Holders).  

Last night, just after the Tyrannis patch was installed CVA attempted to take advantage of long-standing defensive indifference on the part of Sytematic-Chaos Alliance (SC) and launch a surprise attack on R3-K7K.

The surprise attack caught everyone by surprise. 

With most residents of Providence occupied with the Tyrannis upgrades (looking at planets in Planet Interaction Mode, puzzling over why their own POS were trying to kill them, etc.), NPH was slow to mount a defense. The system fell, and many CVA high-fives ensued. 

In fact the NPH have generally been indifferent to CVA's defacto control of R3, viewing it as SC's system and therefore SC's problem. Noir Mercenary Group (NMG) went so far as to tell renters of Noir Space that the CVA concentration in R3 were not Noir's business, unless the renters were willing to hire Noir to bust the gate camps.

However, with CVA's recent capture of the X-R3NM next door to R3-K7K, the NPH was forced to respond. Leaving R3 in CVA hands, even for a few days, would allow CVA to build on their X-R3 momentum.

It would put CVA within one system (N8XA-L) of cobbling together a coherent block of CVA space in the 04-H4M constellation connected to Misaba and empire space. From that block, the next obvious target would be AY-YCU, which would cut off the Legio station system ZT-LPU from the rest of Legio space, and allow CVA to blockade NMG's space in the H-KW4A constellation.

Further, the appearance of ongoing success could breathe new life into CVA, which has been dancing on the brink of irrelevance. It would boost CVA morale, and possibly bring new pilots and additional support from larger alliances to its efforts to reclaim its old place as lord of Providence.

With this in mind, the NPH was highly motivated to react to the taking of R3.

A NPH fleet was assembled early this morning EVE time and dropped into R3-K7K. At 3:47, the NPH fleet destroyed CVA's Territorial Claim Unit and the station is in the hands of Flying Dangerous, the New Providence Holder alliance that controls the N8XA-L system next door.

As I've said elsewhere, taking systems is not enough for CVA. They must hold what they take.

Taking R3 was a throw against long odds for CVA, but likely a necessary one. However, its loss so soon after taking it openly displays CVA's weakness when confronted by the NPH acting in concert. Further, the NPH have obviously decided they can no longer allow CVA breathing room to recover.

Now a very active Flying Dangerous (as opposed to the MIA Systematic-Chaos) stands in R3, between CVA's only station system in X-R3NM, and their low-sec base of operations in Misaba.

The Hail Mary

During the Great Eviction, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance) was not only pushed out of their Providence systems, they shed pilots at a furious rate. After the shooting died down, while CVA’s former holdings were divided up among AAA (Against All Authorities) vassals, CVA numbers stabilized at about 1,065; about a twenty-five percent loss in all.

Unsatisfied with one debacle, CVA persuaded their ally Paxton (Paxton Federation), who’d survived their alliance with CVA during Great Eviction with Paxton's holdings intact, to follow them into a second lost cause. This time the results were never in doubt. Despite some heroic stands by Paxton, the new Providence holders prevailed and Paxton was forced to retreat from their Providence systems.

While Paxton began to look for other opportunities CVA, ever the role-playing zealot, vowed to fight on and take back the Providence (Amarrian sacred ground, you know) no matter how what the cost. Roughly fifty more pilots left CVA, having decided that losing causes, while fun for a while, are a bit of a bummer in the long haul.

People don’t pay CCP every month for a bummer. They pay to have fun.

And this is a very important game mechanic. Like the Romans of old, capsuleers have only one leader: Victory. If your guys are getting their ass handed to them every other week, losing expensive ships and watching as the isk in their accounts dwindle and golden memories of their null-sec past dim, they are not having a good time.

And if you, as alliance leader, just keep yelling “On you cowardly dogs, once more unto the breach,” you quickly become part of a bad gaming experience.

Then your guys will go be somebody else’s guys. 

So, with 1,016 pilots remaining (based on fleet turnouts, I’d venture that only half that number are combat effective; and that may be optimistic), CVA is stuck on the horns of dilemma.

The smart strategy would be to temporize. Cut loose useless systems, use the sov funds to rebuild the fleets and rehab the remaining CVA pilots’ morale and numbers. Make some new allies. Wait for current Providence love-fest to end. After all, the presence of CVA is the glue that holds the new Providence holders together.

Alas, time is precisely what CVA doesn’t have.

Bad CVA decisions have been compounded by more bad CVA decisions. Now, for good or ill, they’ve boxed themselves into a corner. The longer they sit in place, the weaker they get; the best PVP pilots don’t want to sit in low sec playing pirates. After two full scale debacles, CVA’s got to get a win on the board if they’re going to hold onto any sort of a coherent fighting force. And by win, I mean they have to take and actively hold Providence systems.

In American football parlance, CVA is forth and long on the CVA twenty yard line, with only enough time on the clock for one more play.

Yesterday, CVA threw a Hail Mary pass and took X-R3NM from Chaos Theory Alliance. 

Smack-talk on Kugutsmen’s suggests this may have been made possible by internal divisions within Chaos Theory. There may be some truth to this as U’K (Ushra'Khan), rather than Chaos Theory seemed to be leading the system’s defense.  CVA, meanwhile, is claiming support from Core Factor and Paxton.

Paxton, however, having been burnt twice in following CVA’s lead seems disinclined to shed still more blood on CVA’s behalf for old times’ sake. Kill-boards from the dust-up in X-R3NM show very limited Paxton involvement. 

A notable exception was Tarkina Koslix who was a one-capsuleer wrecking crew in her stealth bomber. Unfortunately, one of her bomb runs caught fellow Paxtoneer and interceptor pilot, Giana Malakia, in the blast range. So she has the honor of being listed as a member of a U’K fleet on a kill mail.

The few Paxton pilots who made the battle were likely waiting for relocation orders from their leadership and tagged along for the lulz.  While Paxton is still blue to CVA, I’m guessing most Paxton pilots are happy to be making decisions that don’t involve CVA.

All things considered, unless CVA has some big guns behind it somewhere, it’s doubtful they’ve the strength to keep X-R2NM. Taking it is not enough for CVA. If they can’t hold X-R3NM CVA may be in a worse situation than if they hadn’t taken it at all.

Sadly, it’s not enough to throw the Hail Mary pass; someone has to catch it.

The Amoral World of Diplomacy

In the amoral world of Diplomacy, [Loyalty, honesty, frankness, gratitude, chivalry, magnanimity] are the hallmarks of the born loser. If a fallen enemy reaches out a hand for assistance, the wise man lops it off. If a friend does you a good turn when you’re down, wait until he’s down, then beat him to death. If an ally asks for your help in planning the next season’s moves, give it freely and copiously, then do the reverse of what you agreed and let him take the counter-attack. Try to surround yourself with people who trust you, then let them down; find an ally who will gladly die for you and see that he does just that.

     -"The game of Diplomacy" by Richard Sharp 1978

For those who haven’t been following the diplomatic maneuverings in Providence, a little backstory:

When Against All Authorities (AAA) evicted Curatores Veritatis Alliance (CVA) from Providence nullsec and reseeded the space with hand-picked vassal alliances, they did a curious thing. They left Paxton Federation, a close CVA ally who fought alongside CVA during the Great Eviction, in place.

That raised a few eyebrows. Especially in CVA.

I mean, say you’re CVA. You’re being ignominiously defeated by AAA and driven from your 0.0 holdings. You’re locked in hopeless battle for nullsec survival, fighting shoulder to shoulder with your trusty Paxton Federation buddies. All for one! One for all! We stand or fall together! Rawr!

Then the enemy turns to Paxton and says: Look dude, my fight’s with CVA. Paxton, I kinda like. Paxton’s never crossed me and they’ve all got honest faces. So, I’m not going to take over Paxton’s systems and pass them out to my friends. Once the fighting’s over no hard feeling. Bygones, and all that.

Well. It’s one of those moments that test the bonds of trust.

Paxton quickly said it had nothing to do with AAA’s decision and was as surprised as anyone else. Paxton said that no secret deal had been struck under the table. No knife was poised behind CVA’s collective back. Paxton continued the losing fight as CVA’s trusted ally and the whole matter was chalked up as an attempt by the Machiavellian AAA diplomatic corps to sow mistrust between two loyal friends.

But when the war ended, the dust settled and CVA was relegated to low sec space, AAA was as good as its word. Paxton territories were not given away to friends of AAA. AAA even returned the station system D-GTMI to Paxton without evident preconditions. Kirith Kodachi and his Paxton brethren wondered openly what those clever lads at AAA might be up to with this unforeseen maneuver.

Now if you look at Paxton space, it is a line of systems running like a strand of pearls through the center of Providence. And there are two CVA systems (FX-7EM & MVCJ-E) that touch Paxton Space. If CVA decides to let sovereignty on these systems lapse for financial reasons (see “Friends Like These”), who better than Paxton to take them over. Sort of ‘Here. I’ll just hold these for you until you’re feeling better.’

And if CVA pilots longing for nullsec decide to move into Paxton corporations, is Paxton going to turn them away?

So. As CVA languished in lowsec, shedding pilots and plotting a comeback, Paxton appeared to thrive, growing stronger. And while the CVA/Paxton friendship remained solid, you have to think Paxton was relishing its new role as senior partner in the relationship. Its borders were secure and it had a good chance of expanding them if CVA dropped sov on systems bordering Paxton space. Paxton’s fortunes were looking up.

Alas, trouble loves company.

The rule among the alliances now occupying former CVA space is that they don’t mess with each other’s sovereignty. An alliance may not attempt to expand its sovereignty beyond the systems allocated to it by AAA without AAA permission. Period.

Last Monday, Chaos Theory temporarily lost sov in AY-24I due to some internal glitch. Paxton decided to have some fun at Chaos' expense and went in to shoot up the off-lined sovereignty mods and POS. CVA went along for the lulz. And CVA dropped a Territorial Claim Unit in Chaos Theory’s system.

For Paxton, it had to be a face-palm moment.

Supporting CVA would lose them AAA protection of their space. Extracting themselves from the situation would mean an end to the fiction of Paxton/CVA shared interests and the loss of Paxton’s only ally.

They chose (or were forced) to back CVA's play. Now the wolf, in the form of anyone with an interest in Paxton’s demise, is at the door. Unless Paxton’s diplomatic corps can talk AAA into calling off the dogs, the scouring of Providence has begun again – this time on Paxton’s nickel.

CVA had to know their action would be devastating for Paxton. So why do it?

I suspect that CVA took the opportunity to test Paxton’s intentions. In effect, it forced Paxton to either share CVA’s fate in exile, or renounce CVA openly. CVA leaders are known ideological purists – “with us or against us” types. In their minds Paxton’s need to observe AAA’s sovereignty rules in order to keep Paxton systems was in conflict with Paxton’s duty to help CVA recover their lost systems.

By breaking AAA sovereignty rules on Paxton’s behalf, CVA has broken any tacit agreements between AAA and Paxton. CVA has made sure Paxton will not profit from CVA’s losses, and that Paxton pilots are fully committed to the CVA cause.

CVA appears to have found an ally who will gladly die for them, and are in the process of making sure Paxton does just that.

Friends Like These

The kid is having fun in nullsec.

The kid's a young HellForge pilot who’s made the trip to Providence with me and is having his first experience in 0.0 space since joining the game. He’s having the time of his life. Most corporations in the Lucky Starbase Syndicate are friendly and professional. The kid’s been out ratting and hitting plexes with his new buddies. He’s been having so much pew-pew fun, he burned through half the ammo he brought with him from empire space in the course of an afternoon.

He was downright gleeful when he convoed me yesterday to request I bring BPOs for his preferred ammo type. “I’m never going back to high-sec,” he said.

Good stuff to see. It’s why we’re in new Eden.

The level of cooperation among the alliance corporations is very good. We’re all of us in the same boat – everybody’s made an investment of one sort or another in the move to Providence. Whether it’s a small operators like HellForge or big 100+ pilot corporations with deep pockets, we’ve all put ourselves out on the line. The Lucky corporations seem to recognize we’re invested in each other’s success. After all, this is nullsec and there’s a lot of black hats out there.

Black hats like Curatores Veritatis Alliance (CVA).

They’ve been haunting the borders of Providence nullsec ever since being evicted by Against All Authorities (AAA). CVA's been making sorties into R3-K7K, a nullsec entry point system held by Systematic-Chaos, but I’ve yet to hear of any major fleet actions. I expect CVA is recovering from the capital fleet losses they took while losing Providence. I expect the light incursions into R3 are harassing actions to keep Systematic-Chaos off balance. Meanwhile, if CVA plans on getting back into the nullsec game, they’ll be building up for a capital fleet strike.

But they have to make their play soon. Time is not on their side.

First of all, time is money.

CVA still holds twelve systems in nullsec. Those are, however, scattered systems. They are islands deep in enemy territory, occupied by Against All Authorities' vassals. As such, they return no income to CVA. Meanwhile, CVA must pay all the sovereignty costs for those twelve systems. That rips big gobbets of money from CVA’s reserves every month – money that can’t be used to build capital ships to use in taking back lost systems. By leaving these systems in CVA hands, AAA has tied a very large financial millstone around CVA’s collective neck.

You’d think letting the systems go would be a no-brainer for CVA. Cut them loose and invest the money in the ships needed to engineer a come-back. But, as has been pointed out, CVA is a role-playing alliance. Providence systems are holy ground. And that’s got to be hard for CVA’s leadership to let go of.

Secondly, time in exile is bad for morale

The longer CVA plays the role of low-sec refugee from null-space, the more corps and pilots they’re going to shed. CVA corporations are holding the line at twenty-five. However, the cracks begin to show when you look at the pilot count.

CVA has shed roughly 350 – 400 pilots since January, easily a quarter of their pre-eviction force.

Now they’ve still got a healthy membership with 1,067 pilots on the roster, however, they continue to bleed pilots, albeit slowly. CVA’s got to staunch that trickle of departing pilots before it turns into a steady stream.

Like the kid, CVA's pilots were having fun in nullsec. Like the kid, they don’t want to leave nullsec. And if CVA doesn’t show them a little nullsec love soon, they’re going to find someone else who can. 'Cause CVA isn’t the only Amarr roleplayer alliance in Providence.

Has anybody else noticed that Paxton’s pilot numbers are ticking up at about the same rate CVA’s are ticking down these last few weeks?

Hmmm. More on that next time.

Buying in a down market

Things are getting interesting in the Providence region.

Up to now it's been standard stuff. Push, shove, ships go ka-boom. Yadda, yadda. (Interstellar Correspondents gives a nice write up of the Providence dust up through mid-February (Parts one, two, three and four) if you're behind on the news)

But something has changed. And, unless I miss my guess, we're in for a special, evolutionary Eve moment.

Seems Against All Authorities (AAA)is recruiting a bunch of smallish player alliances to take over systems currently held by AAA's neighbor, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance). AAA provides muscle to push CVA from the system. AAA's client alliance takes sovereignty.

It's an interesting idea:

In essence, AAA is creating a patchwork of null-space kingdoms. None are large enough to threaten AAA, and all are beholden to AAA. If you know your European history, it's sort of like the dozens of little kingdoms and principalities that made up the Holy Roman Empire just prior to German unification - With AAA cast in the role of the Hapsburgs.

Genius, at least in the short term.

Mind, history is full of vassals who got a bad case of ambition and ended up putting a shiv into their liege lord's back. But hey, that's tomorrow. For now, it's all hugs and cuddle-fluff in Providence.

Unless you're CVA.

CVA is rapidly being eaten up in small bites. There are reports of CVA pilots trying to get property out of fallen systems with mixed success. That suggests CVA isn't expecting to take back those systems any time soon. Speculation is CVA will be gone from Providence entirely before too much longer.

Where CVA's component corporations will go after that remains to be seen. If your home's in low sec space near Providence, you'll likely see them rummaging through your garbage cans like an unwelcome family of raccoons while they regroup in your back yard.

But, as they say, it's an ill wind that blows no-one good. CVA's loss may be your gain. The smart alliances will try to pick off one or two of CVA's better endowed corporations before things go completely turtle. And CVA players heavily invested in resources stuck in Providence may be willing to sell them off at fire sale prices in order to re-coup some of their losses.

If you've got the money, buying in a down market is sweet. And markets don't get downer than CVA's at the moment.