Surprise!

Since the Great Eviction, CVA (Curatores Veritatis Alliance) has been basing their operations out of Misaba, the low-sec system adjacent to R3-K7K. CVA gate camps in R3, particularly on the Misaba gate, have become a daily fact of life for the AAA (Against All Authorities) vassal alliances occupying Providence space (aka the New Providence Holders).  

Last night, just after the Tyrannis patch was installed CVA attempted to take advantage of long-standing defensive indifference on the part of Sytematic-Chaos Alliance (SC) and launch a surprise attack on R3-K7K.

The surprise attack caught everyone by surprise. 

With most residents of Providence occupied with the Tyrannis upgrades (looking at planets in Planet Interaction Mode, puzzling over why their own POS were trying to kill them, etc.), NPH was slow to mount a defense. The system fell, and many CVA high-fives ensued. 

In fact the NPH have generally been indifferent to CVA's defacto control of R3, viewing it as SC's system and therefore SC's problem. Noir Mercenary Group (NMG) went so far as to tell renters of Noir Space that the CVA concentration in R3 were not Noir's business, unless the renters were willing to hire Noir to bust the gate camps.

However, with CVA's recent capture of the X-R3NM next door to R3-K7K, the NPH was forced to respond. Leaving R3 in CVA hands, even for a few days, would allow CVA to build on their X-R3 momentum.

It would put CVA within one system (N8XA-L) of cobbling together a coherent block of CVA space in the 04-H4M constellation connected to Misaba and empire space. From that block, the next obvious target would be AY-YCU, which would cut off the Legio station system ZT-LPU from the rest of Legio space, and allow CVA to blockade NMG's space in the H-KW4A constellation.

Further, the appearance of ongoing success could breathe new life into CVA, which has been dancing on the brink of irrelevance. It would boost CVA morale, and possibly bring new pilots and additional support from larger alliances to its efforts to reclaim its old place as lord of Providence.

With this in mind, the NPH was highly motivated to react to the taking of R3.

A NPH fleet was assembled early this morning EVE time and dropped into R3-K7K. At 3:47, the NPH fleet destroyed CVA's Territorial Claim Unit and the station is in the hands of Flying Dangerous, the New Providence Holder alliance that controls the N8XA-L system next door.

As I've said elsewhere, taking systems is not enough for CVA. They must hold what they take.

Taking R3 was a throw against long odds for CVA, but likely a necessary one. However, its loss so soon after taking it openly displays CVA's weakness when confronted by the NPH acting in concert. Further, the NPH have obviously decided they can no longer allow CVA breathing room to recover.

Now a very active Flying Dangerous (as opposed to the MIA Systematic-Chaos) stands in R3, between CVA's only station system in X-R3NM, and their low-sec base of operations in Misaba.

Friends Like These

The kid is having fun in nullsec.

The kid's a young HellForge pilot who’s made the trip to Providence with me and is having his first experience in 0.0 space since joining the game. He’s having the time of his life. Most corporations in the Lucky Starbase Syndicate are friendly and professional. The kid’s been out ratting and hitting plexes with his new buddies. He’s been having so much pew-pew fun, he burned through half the ammo he brought with him from empire space in the course of an afternoon.

He was downright gleeful when he convoed me yesterday to request I bring BPOs for his preferred ammo type. “I’m never going back to high-sec,” he said.

Good stuff to see. It’s why we’re in new Eden.

The level of cooperation among the alliance corporations is very good. We’re all of us in the same boat – everybody’s made an investment of one sort or another in the move to Providence. Whether it’s a small operators like HellForge or big 100+ pilot corporations with deep pockets, we’ve all put ourselves out on the line. The Lucky corporations seem to recognize we’re invested in each other’s success. After all, this is nullsec and there’s a lot of black hats out there.

Black hats like Curatores Veritatis Alliance (CVA).

They’ve been haunting the borders of Providence nullsec ever since being evicted by Against All Authorities (AAA). CVA's been making sorties into R3-K7K, a nullsec entry point system held by Systematic-Chaos, but I’ve yet to hear of any major fleet actions. I expect CVA is recovering from the capital fleet losses they took while losing Providence. I expect the light incursions into R3 are harassing actions to keep Systematic-Chaos off balance. Meanwhile, if CVA plans on getting back into the nullsec game, they’ll be building up for a capital fleet strike.

But they have to make their play soon. Time is not on their side.

First of all, time is money.

CVA still holds twelve systems in nullsec. Those are, however, scattered systems. They are islands deep in enemy territory, occupied by Against All Authorities' vassals. As such, they return no income to CVA. Meanwhile, CVA must pay all the sovereignty costs for those twelve systems. That rips big gobbets of money from CVA’s reserves every month – money that can’t be used to build capital ships to use in taking back lost systems. By leaving these systems in CVA hands, AAA has tied a very large financial millstone around CVA’s collective neck.

You’d think letting the systems go would be a no-brainer for CVA. Cut them loose and invest the money in the ships needed to engineer a come-back. But, as has been pointed out, CVA is a role-playing alliance. Providence systems are holy ground. And that’s got to be hard for CVA’s leadership to let go of.

Secondly, time in exile is bad for morale

The longer CVA plays the role of low-sec refugee from null-space, the more corps and pilots they’re going to shed. CVA corporations are holding the line at twenty-five. However, the cracks begin to show when you look at the pilot count.

CVA has shed roughly 350 – 400 pilots since January, easily a quarter of their pre-eviction force.

Now they’ve still got a healthy membership with 1,067 pilots on the roster, however, they continue to bleed pilots, albeit slowly. CVA’s got to staunch that trickle of departing pilots before it turns into a steady stream.

Like the kid, CVA's pilots were having fun in nullsec. Like the kid, they don’t want to leave nullsec. And if CVA doesn’t show them a little nullsec love soon, they’re going to find someone else who can. 'Cause CVA isn’t the only Amarr roleplayer alliance in Providence.

Has anybody else noticed that Paxton’s pilot numbers are ticking up at about the same rate CVA’s are ticking down these last few weeks?

Hmmm. More on that next time.