Storm Warnings in Delve

As I wrote in SirMolle's Stand last week, the IT Alliance plan to turn the tide, both on the military and morale fronts, was dependent upon their ability to make Fountain the front line in the war against the Deklein Coalition. To that end, SirMolle directed his forces to make a stand in that place, keeping the enemy off the Delve Doorstep.

And it all went badly.

IT Alliance forces in Fountain staged themselves in 6VDT-H. Apparently believing they had time before Deklein coalition (DC) could organize themselves for a new assault, most of the IT forces were concentrated in the station and staging POS in that single system. Learning of this, Goonswarm's leadership quickly assembled a large force, and besieged the system. IT Alliance forces were largely caught in their station and POS, which the Deklein Coalition quickly "rapecaged", bubbling the station and POS locations to prevent warp outs and camping them heavily. Several break-outs were attempted to little avail and IT was apparently unable to call up and deploy additional forces to relieve the siege. 

Their enemies effectively bottled up, the DC took 6VDT as well as the station system 7BX-6F next door, with little effective resistance.

Meanwhile, Against All Authorities (-A-) and Stain Empire, with pitch-ins from several other alliances have undertaken the reduction of Querious. -A- and the Fallen Angels alliance have taken two critical gateway systems in the region, 49-U6U and A2-V27 respectively. What is interesting in the Querious campaign is the relative lack of resistance to the invaders. Defenders calling  for help from IT Alliance have received little in the way of response, let alone assistance.

Word on the street is that IT Alliance leadership, aware that several critical corporations, such as Destructive Influence (DICE.) are planning on departing the alliance, have realized they do not have the numbers to hold three regions. In that case, with the Fountain line broken and the Southern Russians invading Querious, it would make sense for SirMolle to cut loose those regions, pull his remaining forces back to Delve and set up a new line of defense there. IT Alliance corporations unwilling to deploy to Catch and Fountain these last months, may be more inclined to step up to the line if that line is on their home ground.

That would account for the phone ringing unanswered when Fountain and Querious based allies call. SirMolle is not given to sharing his strategies outside of the IT Alliance boardroom. Rather than betray weakness by telling allies they're on their own, IT leadership are more likely leave allies and enemies alike to interpret silence.

There are, however, a few breaks in the clouds gathering at Delve's borders.

Earlier today a number of  IT Alliance supercapital and capital ships were able to escape from 6VDT-H when the Goon's left an opening in their coverage of that system's siege. It's unknown at this point whether this was a tactical error on the Deklein Coalition's part, or simple indifference. 

Additionally, despite all the bad news, IT Alliance has not gone into failscade. This suggests that SirMolle and IT leadership have been able to keep their retreat to Delve from becoming a rout.

However, a number of corporations within IT Alliance have been hedging their bets for some time now. Much will depend on whether SirMolle can count on those corporations to hold the line if and when the invaders arrive at Delve's door. Assuming resistance remains at its current levels in Fountain and Querious, how much breathing room IT Alliance has to prepare its defense will depend on whether its enemies wait to reduce those regions fully before staging for an assault of Delve.

In either event, the storm warnings are up and the skies around Delve grow darker.

PNQY - When Legends Fall

"The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!" - Robert Burns

Things did not go according to script for IT Alliance yesterday in PNQY.

Several weeks ago, IT Alliance announced an "all in" deployment to Catch in order to defend The Initiative from the Southern Russians. With the main IT Capital fleet thus occupied, Goonswarm made disturbingly quick work of Black Star Alliance in Fountain, and moved to strike the IT Alliance stronghold of PNQY in that region. Two days ago, with their Fountain allies unable to hold the line and the PNQY station coming out of its last reinforcement, IT made the decision to quit their Catch operations, recall their main fleet, and move it up to PNQY to save the station and blunt the Goon's offensive.

SirMolle's commanders put out a full scale call to arms. The fleet called for was to consist of armor tanking heavy assault cruisers (AHACs) and capital ships to number in excess of 1700.

Elements of the IT Alliance fleet began arriving in system the day before the battle to ensure they were on the grid before the Goon fleet arrived. Knowing the fight for the system would draw a large Goon battleship fleet, the IT Alliance plan appears to have been to occupy the high ground from a lag perspective and leverage the priority given to Titan doomsday weapons that make them effective even under heavy lag conditions - a tactic they'd used to good effect in Catch against the Southern Russians. Taking a page from Pandemic Legion's book, the IT Alliance commanders deemed a HAC fleet the best sub-capital answer to the Goon's battleship fleet.

Leading up to the fight, IT Alliance postings in the various Eve forums seemed confident of victory. They were fighting close to home. They had the strategic high ground. They had a vast advantage in Supercapital ships. The battle would take place during the prime hours of the European Time Zone, IT Alliance's sweet spot from a player participation standpoint. Even the Goons posting in forum seemed to anticipate an IT win.

Nonetheless, there was excitement in the air. This was to be a knock-down, drag-out brawl between two legendary foes. All eyes turned to Fountain.

As the boxer and sometime philosopher Mike Tyson once observed, "Everybody has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth". IT Alliance appears to have taken a shot to the head early in the battle and never recovered.

Numbers seem to have been key in this fight. Despite the priority of the call to arms and the presence of allies, IT Alliance was unable to assemble the 1700 ship ordered by its fleet commanders. The count of ships on the IT Alliance side seems to have topped out at about 600. There are indications that large numbers of IT pilots were off ratting in the home regions during the PNQY battle; a key failure in CTA discipline. Meanwhile, the opportunity to be a part of an epic battle against the legendary IT Alliance drew pilots from all corners of New Eden to the Goonswarm fleet, swelling their ranks. 

Goonswarm and allies entered PNQY system on schedule and, despite lag, began to make a steady stream of kills against the IT Alliance AHAC formations - Drakes taking a particularly heavy toll of the IT Zealots. IT Alliance appears to have held back its supercapital fleet, possibly owing to the unanticipated size of the Goon fleet. Battle reports to date indicate the presence of a single IT Titan that was quickly pointed and reduced to structure before managing to log off.

Without support of their Supercapitals, the IT AHAC fleet was badly mauled and the fight quickly turned into a rout for IT Alliance as their subcapitals attempted a retreat to an IT POS in system. Unfortunately, the IT Alliance allies had not been provided the POS password and many lost their ships just outside the POS shields. This led to early reports that IT Alliance had fled the field early in the battle, abandoning their allies in the process.

At 21:46 the IT Territorial Claim Unit (TCU) was destroyed. As the Goonswarm TCU was deployed SirMolle is reported to have been in a rage, demanding that IT's Euro pilots fight on into their night to prevent the system from falling to the Goons.  However, the fight seems to have gone out of the IT Alliance pilots and killboards record no IT Alliance kills or losses in PNQY after 22:25, about 40 minutes after the IT Alliance TCU went down.

Now, there is no reason that yesterday's defeat should be more than a minor set-back to IT Alliance. Their Supercapital fleet is intact. They are still, at least on paper, the most powerful single alliance in all New Eden. Their losses in the battle can be easily replaced. Goonswarm's fleet numbers are a statistical outlier - they're not going to get that many pilots in fleet on a regular basis.

What happens next will be very much up to the IT Alliance leadership. If SirMolle and company can use this loss as a galvanizing event to unite disparate factions within the alliance and wake its PvP elements from their apparent slumber, there's no reason to believe IT won't come roaring back at their enemies with a vengeance.

However, if this event is allowed to precipitate a crisis of confidence among IT Alliance members, it's not going to be pretty.

Victory, they say, has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. Outrage and finger-pointing among the IT leadership could broaden current rifts within the alliance. Allies, angry at being led to defeat, may not be inclined to support IT Alliance in its next fight. The loss at PNQY, when circumstances leading up to the battle were so in IT Alliance's favor, will encourage SirMolle's enemies. If they're allowed to seize the initiative and continue on offense against IT and its allies, the cohesion of IT Alliance will be tested even further.

In that case, PNQY will be remembered as the place where the BOB/IT legend fell to earth.

Resurgence

The fall of 68FT-6 in Impass to Against All Authorities (-A-) and the Southern Russian Coalition last week appears to have broken the back of organized resistance in the region by Circle of Two (CO2) and The Initiative (INIT). CO2 subsequently ordered a stand-down in Impass and its pilots appear to have pulled back to CO2 holdings in Providence. Meanwhile, -A- operations in Impass appear to be meeting little resistance on the part of The Initiative, indicating that INIT is writing the region off for the moment; using the time it will take -A- to consolidate their gains in Impass to rest and re-organize INIT forces along a new front.

The most likely concentration of INIT forces will be near the entry-points to Catch. Long the seat of -A- power, and currently the region boasting the highest concentration of INIT forces, Catch is a natural flash-point for both sides. INIT forces striking -A- forces in Impass will come from there. -A- forces looking to take back their old seat of power will strike at those entry points.

While tempted by the emotional importance of Catch, -A- is not likely to overlook Teneferis. As it was for -A- before it, sleepy Teneferis is a source of great wealth for the alliance that holds it. The Initiative has followed -A-'s example of seeding the region with renters who provide INIT with a tidy source of revenue and, no doubt, capital ships.

-A- would do well to begin a secondary offensive in Teneferis either before, or in tandem with an attempted invasion of Catch. If INIT chooses to defend the region, that will draw forces away from the Catch front. If INIT declines to defend (and to some extent, even if it doesn't), many Teneferis renters will shut down operations and the region will quickly dry up as a source of revenue and supply.

Further, the impact on morale of many systems (even renter systems) falling quickly to the invaders should not be overlooked. This is precisely the tactic INIT employed to good effect during its invasion of -A- space earlier this Fall. If The Initiative hadn't been so confident of an -A- failscade soon thereafter, INIT might have taken the lesson and developed their own renters into a meaningful regional defense force. However, if INIT relations with their PvP vassal alliances is any indication, the The Initiative hasn't taken any such trouble and is, like -A- before them, content to use their renters as little more than an ATM. 

Should the Southern Russians successfully invade Teneferis, they should be open to Initiative Associate renters wishing to cut a deal with the inbound -A- forces. Recall that a number of Initiative Associate corporations were, in fact, AAA Citizen corporations before INIT took over the space. As I've written elsewhere, for many of these corporations renting space is a transaction, not a matter of loyalty. Allowing an apolitical renter to occupy the same space merely by switching alliances is simply good business. It saves the renter the need to move or lose valuable infrastructure. It brings the revenue-generating potential of the renter's systems back online as soon as hostilities move past those systems. It saves the invader the headache of recruiting new renters and jump-starts the income flow from the conquered space. Some selective outreach here works to the invaders tactical advantage as well. A renter with no reason to fear the new landlord is less inclined to assist the old landlord in defense of rented space.

How matters resolve themselves between INIT and the Southern Russians going forward will depend on timing and the numbers both sides can bring to the fight. The Initiative and -A-, on their own, are pretty much at numeric parity. Their return as the new lords of Impass should bolster -A- membership and, possibly, bring some seasoned veterans back to the fold. However, Initiative Mercenaries, based out of Catch, is a sizable block of pilots, tipping the balance in favor of The Initiative. Barring a convenient collapse in INIT's morale, -A- is going to need their Southern Russian brethren in the fight if they hope to retake Catch.

While taking Catch will have enormous emotional importance to -A-, it may be less of a priority to Stain Empire and Red Overlords who, having pushed The Initiative and its minions off their doorstep, may be content to consolidate their gains rather than launch another offensive.  Red Overlords in particular may be reluctant, as White Noise is still a presence in Feythabolis, and must be dealt with before that region is secure and Overlords are placed to assist -A- in Catch.  

Then there are the usual wild cards to consider; Pandemic Legion and IT Alliance.

Pandemic Legion seems well occupied in the North where the Drone Russian Coalition (RUS) have hired them to perform enfilading attacks to take Northern Coalition pressure off RUS forces in Etherium Reach. Barring RUS canceling that contract, or The Initiative making PL an offer RUS is unwilling or unable to match, a significant PL presence in the South is unlikely.

Aside from sending a 200 ship fleet to the defense of 68FT-6, IT Alliance has had only marginal involvement in the fighting between The Initiative and the Southern Russians. However it's important to recall that IT Alliance, rushing to the aid of the victors, opened up a second front on the last pockets of -A- resistance when INIT invaded Catch and then turned the conquered -A- systems over to The Initiative. Having taken an IT Alliance shiv in the back, -A- is unlikely to be kindly disposed toward their former allies.

The prospect of a potentially hostile -A- parked on the borders of Querious and Delve may move IT Alliance to take a substantive role in the defense of The Initiative's holdings in Catch. However, throwing the full weight of IT Alliance behind INIT at a time when an impending Goon invasion is building against IT elsewhere is a high-stakes enterprise. If The Initiative falls the resulting appearance of weakness would do much to encourage the growing notion that IT Alliance is a paper tiger - the Hapsburg Empire of New Eden.

As leader of the largest PvP alliance in New Eden, SirMolles's actions since IT's failed invasion of the North early this year seem risk-averse. He has focused on small, low-risk offensive actions that occupy IT Alliance pilots, but the success or failure of which are of little consequence to the alliance at large. With more to lose that to win in most engagements, SirMolle's actions of late seem hesitant - chosen with an eye to protecting the BOB/IT Alliance brand and legacy rather than taking the storied alliance someplace new.

An invasion of Catch by the Southern Russian Coalition will test that hesitancy and put IT Alliance's leadership in the position where passive, low-risk choices are no longer an option.

Paradigm Shift

One of the reasons for the exceedingly high casualties in the American Civil War was that long-held tactics, that were based on the short range poor and accuracy of smooth-bore muskets, came up against the common use of the .58 caliber rifled musket by troops of the day.

It took a long time for both sides to figure out that many tactics that had been chapter and verse, drilled into generations of officers since the the American Revolution, were now recipes for military disaster.

Throughout the history of war, the side that first recognized and adapted to changes in the military paradigm met with success. Those who did not recognize or adapt to change, and insisted on fighting the old fight rather than adapting to the new fight, generally ended up holding a big bag of failure at the end of hostilities.

Atlas Alliance may be reprising that old song.

Recently, Atlas space in Insmother was under attack by Legion of xXDEATHXx, Red Alliance, White Noise (aka the Russian Coalition, or RUS). Pandemic Legion, had been hired by RUS to support the invasion.

Atlas was successful in holding or repulsing the initial attacks, holding down a key system in C-J6MT and making effective use of cap ships against the massed forces of RUS/PL. After a number of failures to loosen the Atlas grip on the system, a new tactic was devised that leveraged the Dominion sovereignty rules. Rather than continuing to batter against C-J6MT with their entire force, PL engaged the main Atlas fleet, pinning it in place while the RUS fleets began to attack the systems around C-J6MT. 

In the old days, Atlas could have deployed a small force with lots of POS to delay the enemy in peripheral systems while defending the main system. Grinding down the defending POS would have been time consuming and ship intensive for the invaders, giving Atlas elbow room to respond. With Dominion era rules, however, an alliance must actively defend systems, or quickly lose them. To do so, an alliance have have the numbers, mobility and command structure necessary to effectively meet the enemy in multiple locations at once.

Atlas didn't adapt immediately to the change in tactics, and was unable to respond to PL/RUS attacks on the surrounding systems. There is some indication that Atlas was reluctant to move due to concerns about lag as a risk to its Cap fleet. Assuming lag was a factor for both sides, the invading RUS/PL force put Atlas into a position where countering RUS attacks would have had Atlas fighting when lag was to its disadvantage.

RUS/PL took advantage of Atlas' concentration in C-J6MT and launched a major assault on Atlas' Detorid stronghold of 0-W778. Significant parts of the Atlas fleet appears to have left C-J6MT in an effort to lift the siege of 0-W778. Entering the system, the Atlas fleet was unable to lift the siege. Some elements of the fleet retreated from the system, however, a large number of ships were boxed in station.

Against All Authorities is reported to have sent some assistance to aid Atlas, however it was not sufficient to turn the tide. The RUS/PL success may have transpired too rapidly for AAA and Atlas to realize the danger until it was too late.  

From what I can gather, Atlas is presently pulling back to establish a defensible frontier, and attempting to stage a break out of the ships that remain camped in 0-W778.

With Atlas regrouping in Omis, RUS and PL appear to be mopping up in Insmother and Detorid. RUS/PL are presently locking down the entry/exit points to the South-East quadrant of Insmother, effectively boxing in the large cluster of Atlas systems there.

As of this writing PL is attacking 46DP in Teneferis, the last remaining entry-point to Insmother in that quadrant.

Despite claims by opponents of an Atlas collapse, Atlas numbers have remained remarkably stable despite this setback. There has been a very slight down-tick of numbers in the last few days, but nothing that would indicate an imminent Failscade.

Now all eyes turn to AAA and, the elephant in the room, IT Alliance. Rumors abound as to whether IT will aid AAA and Atlas, attack them, or simply stand pat.

In the meantime AAA and Atlas will be digesting the lessons recently served up. Despite their success, RUS needs to be wary. The change in Sovereignty rules is a door that swings both ways. RUS is very overextended at the moment. It has long supply lines and an awful lot of territory to digest. Atlas and AAA, with shorter interior lines of movement and supply, may be able to turn the tables on RUS and leverage superior mobility to their advantage.

And then there's the CareBear factor.

Recall in Rise of the CareBears (Part Deux) I said that AAA's careful cultivation of renters have left it sitting on a very big pile of cash. Recall also that PL was hired by RUS.  RUS will have spent a lot of resources on this little fracas and may not have the ready cash needed to outbid AAA for PL's services if push comes to shove. That would allow AAA to eliminate, and possibly recruit, a significant part of the RUS invasion force without firing a shot. An overextended RUS, facing Atlas and AAA along with PL would be in a very tight spot.

And then there are the bears themselves.  As a renter alliance, AAA Citizens doesn't get a great deal of respect from their PVPing neighbors. However, they have invested heavily in their space. They call it home. And they are a tougher breed of bear than those the griefers hunt for sport in empire. Many of the AAAC corporations have a significant PVP-capable element. Even if they can't punch in the weight class of a Pandemic Legion or IT Alliance, they represent a sizable body of experienced nullsec PVP pilots. Properly organized and deployed, their number will make themselves felt. The major alliances would be foolish to dismiss them.

When the Japanese assembled a modern army after the Meji Restoration, they recruited most of their soldiers from the peasant class. The samurai had a good laugh over that. Then the peasants killed them.

Funny things, paradigm shifts.